As Benjamin Netanyahu began his latest visit to Washington, DC, to reaffirm Israel’s indispensable alliance with the United States, a public opinion survey offered a remarkable measure of how profoundly that relationship has changed.
asserted
relationship → begin → measure
An Economist/YouGov poll released on July 28 found that 49 percent of Americans believe the Israeli prime minister should be arrested under the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court.
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minister → release → Court
Even more striking, 47 percent said they believe the prime minister has committed war crimes in Gaza.
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minister → say → Gaza
Today, they are the clearest evidence that Netanyahu has accomplished what generations of Israeli leaders worked to avoid: transforming Israel from a bipartisan cause into one of the US’s most polarising foreign policy issues.
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generations → accomplish → issues
That transformation did not begin with the October 7, 2023, attack, nor solely with the genocide and devastation in Gaza.
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transformation → begin → Gaza
Those events accelerated a process Netanyahu set in motion years earlier.
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Netanyahu → accelerate → motion
By tethering Israel ever more tightly to one US party, treating Republicans as permanent guarantors while dismissing Democratic concerns, he undermined the broad bipartisan consensus that had anchored the relationship for decades.
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that → tether → decades
For generations, Israeli leaders understood that Israel could never afford to become a partisan issue.
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Israel → understand → generations
The alliance endured because both parties regarded Israel as a strategic partner whose security transcended domestic politics.
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security → endure → politics
Netanyahu inherited that asset.
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Netanyahu → inherit → asset
He is now in danger of squandering it.
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He → squander → it
Ironically, few Israeli politicians knew America better.
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politicians → know → America
Educated partly in the US, fluent in its political language and deeply connected to Washington’s establishment, he understood how power operated.
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power → educate → establishment
Yet that familiarity bred miscalculation.
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familiarity → breed → miscalculation
Convinced that demographic and ideological changes favoured a permanently ascendant Republican Party, Netanyahu abandoned his predecessors’ careful balancing act and invested heavily in one side of the US’s widening partisan divide.
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Netanyahu → favour → divide
The decisive rupture came in 2015, when he accepted a Republican invitation to address a joint session of Congress in open defiance of President Barack Obama during the Iran nuclear debate.
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he → come → debate
Conservatives celebrated the speech as an act of courage; strategically, it marked a watershed.
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it → celebrate → watershed
Never before had an Israeli prime minister intervened so directly against a sitting president.
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minister → intervene → president
Millions of Democrats concluded that Israel’s leader had chosen sides, and the consequences outlasted the Iran deal.
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consequences → conclude → deal
Donald Trump’s presidency appeared to vindicate this strategy.
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presidency → appear → strategy
He recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the US embassy, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, abandoned pressure over settlements and discarded demands for a Palestinian state.
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He → recognise → state
Netanyahu mistook those victories for proof that bipartisan support had become obsolete, believing Republican loyalty could permanently replace Democratic consensus.
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loyalty → mistake → consensus
Alliances survive because they are rooted in institutions, shared values and broad legitimacy — not because they depend on one administration.
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they → survive → administration
By allowing Israel to become identified with Republican politics, Netanyahu weakened the alliance precisely when it needed to remain strongest.
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it → allow → alliance
Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza exposed the consequences.
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war → expose → consequences
President Joe Biden, despite unprecedented pressure from his Democratic Party, extended extraordinary military, diplomatic and political support to Israel after the October 7, 2023 attacks.
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Biden → extend → attacks
He visited Israel during wartime, accelerated military assistance, defended it at the United Nations and absorbed fierce domestic criticism.
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He → visit → criticism
Netanyahu answered with repeated public confrontations, accusing Washington of withholding weapons, rejecting US proposals for post-war governance, resisting humanitarian access and contradicting the White House on strategic questions.
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Netanyahu → answer → questions
Even as Biden invested enormous political capital, Netanyahu appeared more intent on demonstrating independence to his domestic base than preserving the confidence of Israel’s most important ally.
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Netanyahu → invest → ally
Meanwhile, the conduct of the war fundamentally altered global perceptions.
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conduct → alter → perceptions
Relentless bombardment devastated Gaza, destroying hospitals, schools, universities and entire neighbourhoods, while severe humanitarian restrictions produced warnings of famine.
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restrictions → devastate → famine
Senior ministers openly advocated permanent displacement, collective punishment and indefinite military control.
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ministers → advocate → displacement
Whether the alleged conduct meets the legal definition of war crimes will be determined by courts; politically, the verdict is already forming — not only worldwide but increasingly within the US.
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verdict → allege → US
The fact that nearly half of Americans believe the Israeli prime minister should be arrested, and nearly half believe he has committed war crimes, reflects a profound shift in how Americans view Israel under his leadership.
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Americans → believe → leadership
Polls fluctuate; strategic realignments do not.
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realignments → fluctuate → ?
Once public attitudes harden across generations, rebuilding trust becomes extraordinarily difficult.
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rebuilding → harden → trust
Within the Democratic Party, unconditional support has given way to demands that military assistance be made conditional on compliance with international humanitarian law.
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assistance → give → law
Younger voters discuss the conflict in terms of occupation, apartheid and universal human rights rather than traditional alliances.
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voters → discuss → occupation
Members of Congress once reluctant to criticise Israel now openly challenge successive governments.
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Members → criticise → governments
Even Republican support can no longer be assumed to be permanent; younger conservative populists have become sceptical of unconditional foreign commitments.
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populists → assume → commitments
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
