The Eras of Francis Fukuyama: How States Form

Persuasion · collected 2026-08-24 · by Yascha Mounk commentary
Read the original at Persuasion ↗

Summary

Francis Fukuyama, a senior fellow at Stanford University and author of "In the Realm of the Last Man", discusses his shift in opinion on the Iraq War with Yascha Mounk. Initially supporting the war, Fukuyama changed his mind due to his experiences with the neoconservative movement's hubristic foreign policy assumptions. The conversation, part of a series on Liberal Virtues and Values supported by the John Templeton Foundation, explores how Fukuyama's views on human nature and international intervention evolved over 15-20 years.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-24, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
288
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
5%
13 of 288 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
3
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-08-24 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

Here's a summary of the news stories in 6-9 sentences:

Written for “Philosophy of Governance” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 2 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.35 Confidence medium
Leaning score -0.35 for article 1982 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-08-28

Story

📰 Philosophy of Governance
Politics · 3 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Persuasion
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 19 of 247
“The articles describe different conversations with Francis Fukuyama, discussing different topics”
What Locke Knew About Elites same event · 100%
Persuasion
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 14% hedged 11 of 81
“Both articles mention an upcoming interview between Yascha Mounk and Francis Fukuyama at The Abbey Centre in London, with identical details including date, time, and location.”
The Free Press
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A mentions a conversation between Yascha Mounk and Francis Fukuyama, while Article B discusses the Korean War and its impact on American foreign policy”
On Executive Authority different event · 90%
Persuasion
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3
“The events are two separate interviews of Francis Fukuyama, one about his views on executive authority and another about his life and thought”

Publisher

Persuasion · 9 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

Commentary. The three signals behind a trust score all measure a newsroom's record with its own reporting, so they are not computed for this source. How trust is scored.

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Yascha Mounk
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 We’re on vacation this week, so are rerunning a fun “beach read” episode exploring if your nearest and dearest could be psychopaths. Miss us already?
2026-08-31 · assertive framing · Abigail Marsh on Psychopaths (Rerun)
🔮 In an event exclusively for readers of American Purpose and Persuasion, Yascha Mounk will be interviewing Francis Fukuyama about his life and thought at 5pm on Sunday, September 6 at The Abbey Centre, London.
2026-08-24 · assertive framing · The Eras of Francis Fukuyama: How States Form
🔮 In this week’s conversation, Yascha Mounk and Francis Fukuyama discuss why building things with your hands is an antidote to dependence on big tech, whether AI will erode the practical skills future generations need to survive, and what hobbyist robotics has in common with Ukraine’s battlefield ingenuity.
2026-08-24 · assertive framing · The Eras of Francis Fukuyama: Building Things
More on this subject from Yascha Mounk
The Eras of Francis Fukuyama: Building Things
2026-08-24 · Persuasion · 60% similar
All 3 articles by Yascha Mounk →

Topics

London Persuasion Stanford University the Iraq War the John Templeton Foundation

Subjects

Francis Fukuyama PERSON · 4× Iraq GPE · 3× Yascha Mounk PERSON · 3× Bill Kristol PERSON · 2× Fukuyama PERSON · 2× Frankly Fukuyama PERSON · 1× London GPE · 1× Persuasion ORG · 1× Stanford University ORG · 1× the John Templeton Foundation ORG · 1×

Narrative

Obviously one other factor that was very important was the split between Sunnis and Shias, and the fact that even though Saddam Hussein was extremely unpopular among Shias and among many Sunnis—he was a terrible dictator, and that’s something we shouldn’t forget in retelling the story—the moment Sunnis felt like their power was being taken away and Shias were going to be in charge of the state, they had a very strong reason to try and organize against the new regime.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-24
🔮 In an event exclusively for readers of American Purpose and Persuasion, Yascha Mounk will be interviewing Francis Fukuyama about his life and thought at 5pm on Sunday, September 6 at The Abbey Centre, London.
2026-08-24 · Persuasion
The Eras of Francis Fukuyama: How States Form · assertive framing

Claims (288 extracted, 13 hedged)

In this week’s conversation, Yascha Mounk and Francis Fukuyama discuss why Fukuyama initially supported the Iraq War and what changed his mind, how the neoconservative movement’s experience of Eastern Europe shaped its disastrous assumptions about the Middle East, and what his break with former colleagues cost him personally and professionally. asserted
break → discuss → him
In an event exclusively for readers of American Purpose and Persuasion, Yascha Mounk will be interviewing Francis Fukuyama about his life and thought at 5pm on Sunday, September 6 at The Abbey Centre, London. asserted
Mounk → interview → Centre
Paying subscribers of Persuasion and American Purpose can access a code for a free ticket here. asserted
subscribers → pay → ticket
We’re delighted to feature this conversation as part of our series on Liberal Virtues and Values. asserted
We → feature → Virtues
This series, made possible with the generous support of the John Templeton Foundation, features content making the case that liberalism has its own distinctive set of virtues and values that are capable not only of responding to the dissatisfaction that drives authoritarianism, but also of restoring faith in liberalism as an ideology worth believing in—and defending—on its own terms. asserted
that → make → terms
This transcript has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity. asserted
transcript → condense → clarity
We left in the 1990s, or I suppose the early 2000s, with your writing about human nature. asserted
I → leave → nature
So I think we’re going to try and cover the next fifteen or twenty years in this conversation. asserted
we → think → conversation
The starting point to a lot of political debate, and perhaps to some big changes in your reflections about the world, was the terrible terrorist attacks of September 11th and the decision by the administration of George W. Bush to invade Iraq. asserted
point → invade → Iraq
You initially supported that idea and then changed your mind about it. asserted
You → support → it
Well, I had fallen in with a group of people that later became known as the neoconservatives—people like Bill Kristol and his Project for the New American Century, which started in the 1990s. asserted
which → fall → 1990s
I frankly hadn’t been thinking about foreign policy all that much in the 1990s. asserted
I → think → 1990s
I was more interested in things like the wars in Central America, or the peacekeeping missions that had been undertaken in that period. asserted
that → undertake → period
It’s so long ago—we had this thing called the responsibility to protect, at a time when the West seemed so overpoweringly powerful and influential. asserted
West → ’ → time
And the question was: when were we going to intervene to restore order to disorderly developing countries? asserted
we → go → countries
That now seems incredibly hubristic. asserted
That → seem → ?
I remember being quite skeptical about that idea when I first came across it as a young student. asserted
I → remember → student
But of course, this came out of the failure to intervene in Rwanda—the sense that we had let these horrible genocides go on without doing anything. asserted
genocides → come → anything
And so, if we had the power, if we had the ability, why shouldn’t we go in and save people from genocide? asserted
we → have → genocide
And we have the ability to do that—well, why shouldn’t we take it one step further and spread the joys of democracy and good government around the world? asserted
we → have → world
You have to give it its due—you have to place it in the historical context of where that instinct came from. asserted
instinct → have → where
I had been thinking about developing world conflicts, civil wars, intervention, and I hadn’t paid that much attention to this ongoing crisis over Iraq—even though when I was an intern at the RAND Corporation back in 1978, that’s what I did. asserted
I → think → what
I wrote a whole study that summer about Iraq’s—Saddam Hussein’s—relationship to the Soviet Union, which at that time was the most radical Arab rejectionist country. asserted
which → write → time
So I did sign on to a letter that Bill Kristol had sent around urging intervention in Iraq. asserted
Kristol → sign → Iraq
To my embarrassment, I actually hadn’t thought that carefully about it. asserted
I → think → it
Then September 11th happened. asserted
11th → happen → ?
I was sitting in my office at SAIS on Massachusetts Avenue when the Pentagon was struck. asserted
Pentagon → sit → Avenue
One of my colleagues came into my office and said, “You’d better turn on the TV, because something big is happening.” asserted
something → come → TV
And we watched the second plane go into the second tower, and looking out the windows we could actually see the smoke rising from the Pentagon, which had also been hit that morning. uncertain
which → watch → Pentagon
Everything seemed to change. asserted
Everything → seem → ?
And the question then was: what do we do about this? asserted
we → do → this
This led to this really bitter and prolonged debate over the causes of September 11th, and the inclination of a lot of my conservative friends to try to link this to Saddam Hussein and this longstanding problem that they’d had with Iraq and its attempt to develop weapons of mass destruction. asserted
they → lead → destruction
I don’t know that it’s worth going through all of the ins and outs of that latter issue. asserted
it → know → issue
The elder Bush had intervened to get Iraq out of Kuwait back in 1991. asserted
Iraq → intervene → 1991
In the subsequent years, they discovered that Iraq was actually working on a nuclear program. asserted
Iraq → discover → program
They sent nuclear inspectors in, and Saddam Hussein kicked them out. asserted
Hussein → send → them
And it did look like he was trying to do his best to deceive the outside world as to the existence of these WMD programs. asserted
he → look → programs
But after September 11th, there was an attempt to link all of this to the September 11th attacks, and that laid the ground for the disastrous intervention in 2003. asserted
that → be → 2003
So that was the general background out of which I was operating back then. asserted
I → operate → which
So at the time when you favored this intervention, which of the different kinds of justifications for the war did you find to be most compelling? asserted
you → favor → war
…and 248 more, not listed.
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