This race will test Democratic strength in November
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- The contest in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District should be a shoo-in for Republicans.
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contest → test → Republicans
- But a problematic candidate, inflation and Trump’s unpopularity give Democrats not-far-fetched hopes for a massive upset.
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candidate → give → upset
The high desert is not typically a place you look for a wave.
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you → look → wave
But in the vast expanse between the Sierra Nevada and Utah border, a not-exactly-wide-open race for Congress is testing whether a blue wave, should one come November, is ankle-high or something more akin to a political tsunami.
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one → test → tsunami
Nevada’s 2nd District has been represented by just four lawmakers since its creation more than 40 years ago.
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District → represent → creation
The district, which takes in northern Nevada, is overwhelmingly white and rural, which makes it solidly conservative.
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it → take → Nevada
In 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by a decisive 56% to 42%; only Washoe County, home to Reno, kept things that close.
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County → beat → things
Trump won other portions of the district by 50 percentage points or more.
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Trump → win → points
But inflation, Trump’s sagging approval rating and other factors — northern resentment toward southern Nevada, where Flippo lived until fairly recently, the refusal of the incumbent to support his party’s nominee — offer Democrats the not-entirely-far-fetched hope of a major upset.
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Flippo → sag → upset
Aaron Mahan, who’s spent decades as a server on and off the Strip, says inflation and Trump’s pugnacious immigration and foreign policies have chased tourists away.
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inflation → spend → tourists
He’s feeling it in his wallet.
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He → feel → wallet
“It will be an interesting summer and fall,” Mark Amodei, who has represented the district for 15 years, wrote on social media after the June primary.
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who → represent → primary
“But I believe it’s fair to say that CD-2, for the first time in its history, isn’t a Republican guarantee.
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CD-2 → believe → history
That’s just about the kindest thing the congressman has had to say about his would-be successor.
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congressman → ’ → successor
All of which make the sprawling district in Nevada’s rough and rocky Great Basin an improbable political bellwether.
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district → make → Basin
A win on such forbidding terrain would almost certainly mean a nationwide Democratic gain of 30 or more seats in November; they need to flip just three to take control of the House.
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they → mean → House
Flippo, 63, a 25-year Air Force veteran and Trump stalwart, arrived in the district from Las Vegas.
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Flippo → arrive → Vegas
He ran for Congress there in 2024, losing in the Republican primary.
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He → run → primary
He was preparing for a second try in the Democratic-leaning 4th District when Amodei unexpectedly announced his retirement in February.
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Amodei → prepare → February
So Flippo hightailed it north to run in the far more hospitable 2nd District.
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Flippo → hightail → District
He took on the favored candidate of Amodei and others in the GOP establishment, James Settelmeyer, a former minority leader of the state Senate.
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He → take → Senate
Backed by a constellation of MAGA celebrities, Flippo waged a fiercely negative campaign, accusing “Tampon Jim” of voting to put menstrual products in boys’ bathrooms and coddling undocumented immigrants, among other distortions.
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Flippo → back → distortions
With Trump’s endorsement, Flippo handily defeated Settelmeyer and 11 other primary opponents.
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Flippo → defeat → Settelmeyer
“”Absolutely scurrilous campaign against ... one of the nicest guys around,” Amodei said afterward, on the program “Nevada Newsmakers.”
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Amodei → say → program
Mark Amodei’s not endorsing [Flippo.]
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Amodei → endorse → Flippo
I wish him all the best.
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I → wish → best
Apart from his exceedingly short-term residency in the district, questions have also been raised about Flippo’s opaque finances.
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questions → raise → finances
He has lent his campaign more than $1.6 million and failed to provide the personal disclosure information required of federal candidates.
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He → lend → candidates
There is also no record of Flippo filing the required statement during his 2024 campaign, according to the Washington news outlet NOTUS.
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Flippo → be → outlet
In addition, it reported that Flippo was fired from a job in the financial services industry after his company accused him of violating policies and regulations.
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company → report → policies
Those credentials also buoy Democratic hopes.
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credentials → buoy → hopes
The party’s congressional campaign committee has, for the first time in decades, added Nevada’s 2nd District to its target list, though it remains to be seen how much time and money national Democrats commit to the race.
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Democrats → add → race
To prevail, Benitez-Thompson would have to defy political gravity, which is to say overcome the reflexive partisanship that has typified politics in this age of deep voter polarization.
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that → prevail → polarization
In the last two midterm elections, according to the Pew Research Center, more than 90% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters supported GOP candidates for the House.
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% → accord → House
In other words, the kind of crossover voters that Benitez-Thompson needs to win have become rare indeed.
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Thompson → need → that
““Trump is a huge liability for Republicans; there is no question that the GOP is going to have huge turnout problems, meaning that in a lot of races, Democrats are going to greatly exceed expectations,” the veteran election handicapper Charlie Cook wrote in a recent midterm analysis.
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handicapper → be → analysis
“But converting Republican voters to actually back a Democrat — even for a day — is so much harder now.”
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converting → convert → day
Jon Ralston, one of Nevada’s leading political savants, agreed.
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Ralston → agree → savants
The former Senate majority leader tried multiple times to have Jon Ralston fired before finally succeeding.
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Ralston → try → ?
Reid then turned to the veteran journalist to write his biography.
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Reid → turn → biography
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
