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Malik Smith predicts an upcoming WNBA game between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx, analyzing their recent performances post-FIBA break. The Lynx, currently with the league’s best record and second-best defense, are favored at home by 6.5 points despite entering play on a two-game losing streak. Smith notes that while the Lynx have dominated overall this season, they struggle against the spread when heavy favorites. He favors the Liberty (+6.5, -105 odds) to keep it close based on their better record in games following extended breaks and recent trends.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
The New York Liberty defeated the Minnesota Lynx 93-81 in a key playoff preview game on Friday night at Target Center. Despite the Lynx holding the top seed with a record of 31-10, they suffered their third straight loss, while the Liberty improved to sixth place with a record of 25-16. Breanna Stewart led the Liberty with 24 points and 10 rebounds, moving past Sue Bird into ninth on the WNBA’s career scoring list. The Liberty outscored the Lynx 23-12 in the final quarter to secure the win after Olivia Miles had given Minnesota a brief lead earlier in the game.
Written for “Liberty Beats Lynx” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
The WNBA returned Thursday from a three-week break for the FIBA Women’s World Cup, as teams gear up for the postseason.
asserted
teams → return → postseason
The Liberty open their final stretch of games with a huge test against the Lynx, who have the league’s best record and the No. 2 defense.
asserted
who → open → record
The Lynx entered the break on a two-game losing streak, which included their lowest-scoring game of the season, a 26-point drubbing against the Valkyries.
asserted
which → enter → Valkyries
The Liberty were 1-1, but also suffered a 19-point loss to the Valkyries in a game that ended with their lowest offensive output all year.
asserted
that → suffer → output
Sportsbooks have the Lynx listed as 6.5-point home favorites, so they expect them to return to the form that put them at the top of the standings all season.
asserted
that → have → standings
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction, best bets
At this point in the campaign, we know what to expect from the Lynx.
asserted
we → know → Lynx
Olivia Miles has been awesome, arguably MVP-worthy if not for A’ja Wilson, and Napheesa Collier has fit right back in with the team since her season debut in late July.
asserted
Collier → fit → July
The Liberty have been up and down all season as they’ve tried to adjust to a new head coach and offensive system, but are solidly in the mix among the better teams in the league with Breanna Stewart carrying the offense.
asserted
Stewart → try → offense
These two teams played each other close in their previous two meetings, with both sides holding home court, and there aren’t a ton of obvious advantages on either side of the matchup.
asserted
sides → play → matchup
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From a betting standpoint, the Lynx have not been as good against the spread as their overall record suggests.
uncertain
record → get → spread
When the Lynx are 6.5-point favorites or higher, they are 5-12 ATS compared to 18-5 ATS when they are 5.5-point favorites or less.
asserted
they → compare → ATS
They’ve come out on the winning side of their games a ton this season, but they aren’t blowing teams away.
asserted
they → come → teams
There’s also the rest vs. rust factor with all the time off since the league was last in action.
asserted
league → ’ → action
I’m leaning on the trends here and backing the Liberty to play the Lynx tough and cover this number on the road.
asserted
I → lean → road
The Play: Liberty +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017.
asserted
Smith → trust → 2017
He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports.
asserted
He → ’ → NBA
He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
asserted
He → spend → props
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