Donald Trump announced a deal between the Board of Peace, which he created, and Hamas for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza. The agreement would come in phases, with Israel withdrawing from Gaza as disarmament is completed. However, Hamas officials have since clarified that they will only hand over their weapons to a new Palestinian police force once Israel meets its commitments under an earlier agreement, including withdrawing forces and ending attacks on Gaza. This includes increasing the flow of goods and aid into the enclave.
The Israeli government has expressed serious security concerns about the deal, with officials saying that if they redeploy before Hamas is truly disarmed, it will quickly rebuild its military and threaten Israeli communities again. The Board of Peace has also stated that an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza will only take place after the disarmament of Hamas is complete.
A senior Hamas official described the agreement as a "comprehensive framework" that goes beyond disarmament and would depend on Israel implementing its commitments. The plan provides for the inventorying and storage of remaining heavy weapons under Palestinian supervision, potentially removing a significant obstacle to advancing the Trump-backed peace initiative for Gaza.
| Signal | Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Correction rate | 0.000 | 0.4 |
| Uncertainty density | 0.070 | 0.25 |
| Assertive mismatch rate | 0.000 | 0.35 |