Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened the UK and NATO over its involvement in Ukraine, but according to Katia Glod of the New Eurasia Strategies Centre, these threats are largely empty. The Kremlin's aggressive posturing is intended to deter Western support for Ukraine rather than a genuine threat of military action against Britain or other Nato members. Glod suggests that Putin is aware that direct strikes on the UK would be too risky and instead may opt for "hybrid attacks" such as cyber-crime, diplomatic harassment, and recruiting proxies on British soil. The UK has been supplying drones to Ukraine, which has sparked further threats from Moscow.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-21,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Russia has been warning Britain that it will face consequences for supplying drones to Ukraine, which have been used to attack targets on Russian territory. In response to reports of British-made drones being used in strikes against Russia, the Russian embassy in London said "London's actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer". The UK has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing around 25 billion pounds ($47 billion) in support, including 16 billion pounds in military aid.
The use of British-made drones against Russia is believed to be the first time they have been used for long-range strikes against Russian territory. Ukraine has been using these drones to hit oil refineries and logistics facilities, causing significant economic damage, with reports suggesting that the attacks have caused over £35bn in economic damage.
The UK's Ministry of Defence did not confirm whether British drones had been used, but a spokesperson said that "Britain stands shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine and we are committed to providing the equipment Ukraine needs to defend itself against Putin's illegal invasion."
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, at least five people have been killed and more than 10 injured in the latest wave of Russian strikes, officials have said. The attacks caused fires across the capital, Kyiv, including at a book market. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of targeting civilian infrastructure.
Separately, a Russian missile attack killed 10 people on Tuesday in a village in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities said. The attack damaged 10 private buildings, a cafe, a post office, a store and at least seven cars.
Written for “Russia-Ukraine Conflict Escalates” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 26 other(s) covering the same event.
The Kremlin has often issued threats that Britain will “pay a higher price” for its role in Ukraine — as it did again this week following reports of British-made drones striking deep inside Russian territory — But Moscow’s sabre-rattling is rarely meant for Britain alone.
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rattling → issue → Britain
Here, Katia Glod, deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre (NEST) think tank, speaks to The Independent to break down the intended purpose of Vladimir Putin’s aggressive posturing.
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Glod → speak → posturing
History of UK-Russia tensions
“Putin’s threats should be taken seriously — but not toward the possibility of a real, kinetic move against Britain” in terms of war, says Glod.
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Glod → take → war
Glod emphasises that such threats are not new for the UK, where for decades, Moscow has used Britain as a staging ground for actions to garner global attention, while being able to deny them as Kremlin-directed.
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Moscow → emphasise → them
Incidents like the 2006 assassination of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko via radioactive polonium-210, and the notorious Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury should be seen in that context, although they are extreme examples.
More recent examples include the Leyton warehouse arson in March 2024 — where Russia was found to have recruited proxies to set fire to a Ukrainian-owned commercial facility — or the 2024 and 2025 reconnaissance by the Russian vessel Yantar, which was detected loitering near the UK’s critical underwater infrastructure.
But while Russia is content meddling with British affairs from afar, the Kremlin remains highly aware that direct strikes on the UK would be “playing with fire,” says Glod, given the mutual defence agreement between allies in Nato.
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Glod → see → Nato
“No-one really knows what Nato’s response to a Russian attack on the UK would be, and Putin doesn’t want to find out.
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Putin → know → UK
He knows that Russia doesn’t have the capacity to respond.”
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Russia → know → capacity
Could Putin escalate his 'hybrid war' on Britain?
uncertain
Putin → escalate → Britain
Instead, the threat posed by a potential NATO intervention means that the Kremlin will most likely look toward “hybrid attacks.”
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Kremlin → pose → attacks
Hybrid attacks often use non-military actions to harm a rival country without starting a traditional war.
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attacks → use → war
Such attacks include: cyber-crime, harassing diplomats, recruiting criminals on British soil to help achieve Russian objectives, or approaching British airspace and waters.
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attacks → include → airspace
“These things will all continue, or even escalate, but it is hard to say if it is solely because of the UK supplying drones to Ukraine, or if they would have happened anyways,” explains Glod.
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Glod → continue → Ukraine
Why Putin faces conflicting objectives
For Putin, empty threats have created a problem.
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threats → face → problem
“His two main objectives are conflicting,” Glod stresses.
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Glod → stress → ?
“While he’s trying to signal that anyone who helps Ukraine will face retaliation, he also wants to avoid being directly affiliated with any kinetic action against a Nato member.”
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he → try → member
“What Putin really wants is for Western states to understand that assisting Ukraine will result in escalation.
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assisting → want → escalation
”
But with Putin taking no direct action against Nato members over the past four years, Russian credibility to back up its threats is waning.
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credibility → take → threats
“Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons in the past, and just hasn’t followed through,” says Glod.
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Glod → threaten → past
“And the thing about deterrence is, if you don’t follow through, it wears out.”
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it → follow → deterrence
Because of this, the Kremlin’s reliance on unfulfilled threats has done little other than reveal that Russia is severely constrained in how it can retaliate against Ukrainian deep strikes without risking a larger war with the West.
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it → do → West
Can the UK defend itself against Russian attack?
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UK → defend → attack
While an open military assault remains unlikely, the threats from Moscow have highlighted concerns over British air defence capabilities.
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threats → remain → capabilities
At present, Russia does have the capacity to strike the UK using its missile systems in Belarus.
“The worry for the UK is it doesn’t have the air defence capacity to be able to defend against an air attack,” Glod says.
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Glod → have → attack
While several European allies rely on US-made Patriot air defence systems — widely recognised as the gold standard for tracking and intercepting high-speed ballistic and cruise targets — the UK does not field these systems.
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UK → rely → systems
Nevertheless, Glod stresses that a direct missile strike remains improbable.
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strike → stress → ?
“Russia doesn’t want to engage in active war with the UK,” she notes, “because it knows that Nato’s collective response would be far worse.”
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response → want → UK
