I can still remember, as a young Air Force officer, sitting in the cockpit of my B-1 bomber knowing that we could deliver nuclear weapons virtually anywhere in the world.
uncertain
we → remember → world
I also remember watching President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev meet in Reykjavik, Iceland, in 1986 to negotiate nuclear arms reductions.
asserted
Reagan → remember → reductions
The whole world was watching.
asserted
world → watch → ?
The nuclear arms race was a global threat, and the world’s two most powerful nations had a responsibility to confront it.
asserted
nations → have → it
Now imagine that, as Reagan sat across the table from Gorbachev, American companies were selling Moscow the technology it needed to make its nuclear arsenal even more powerful.
asserted
arsenal → imagine → technology
Yet today, as the United States enters another potentially historic technological arms race, we are entertaining a remarkably similar proposition: selling China the advanced computer chips it needs to build the world’s most powerful artificial intelligence.
asserted
it → enter → intelligence
But in the emerging competition over artificial intelligence, they may be the closest equivalent we have to the strategic materials that powered the last great arms race.
uncertain
that → emerge → race
Without enormous quantities of advanced chips and computing power, China cannot train frontier AI systems at the same scale or speed as the United States.
asserted
China → compute → States
That is precisely why Beijing wants them, and precisely why Washington should think very carefully before selling them.
asserted
Washington → want → them
When President Donald Trump welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping to the White House this month, there will be no shortage of issues to discuss.
asserted
Trump → welcome → issues
But Trump should make one principle clear: America will not help China build the technology that could erase one of our greatest strategic advantages.
uncertain
that → make → advantages
The United States currently possesses enormous leverage.
asserted
States → possess → leverage
America remains at the center of the world’s most advanced AI ecosystem, and China still depends heavily on access to American-designed chips and the broader technological infrastructure surrounding them.
asserted
China → remain → them
We should not give that leverage away.
asserted
We → give → leverage
Earlier this year, the United States began allowing some advanced AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200, to be sold to China on a case-by-case basis.
asserted
chips → begin → basis
Those sales come with restrictions and security requirements.
asserted
sales → come → restrictions
But the strategic question is more fundamental: Why should we accelerate China’s ability to compete with us in the first place?
asserted
we → accelerate → place
Supporters of chip sales argue that keeping China dependent on American technology preserves our influence and supports American companies.
asserted
keeping → argue → companies
They also argue it disincentivizes China from developing its own capabilities.
asserted
it → argue → capabilities
But there is great evidence that it has exactly the opposite effect.
asserted
it → be → effect
China is using our chips to accelerate their own capabilities.
asserted
China → use → capabilities
And national security should never be reduced to an argument over market share.
asserted
security → reduce → share
But in the emerging competition over artificial intelligence, they may be the closest equivalent we have to the strategic materials that powered the last great arms race.
uncertain
that → emerge → race
An advanced AI chip sold to China does not simply power a search engine or make a factory more efficient.
asserted
factory → sell → engine
At sufficient scale, these chips provide the computing power required to train increasingly capable AI systems with applications in intelligence, cyber operations, military planning, autonomous weapons, scientific research and countless other fields.
asserted
chips → provide → intelligence
We would never have looked at Soviet demand for strategic nuclear technology and concluded that the important question was whether an American company could make the sale.
uncertain
company → look → sale
We understood that some technologies were too consequential to treat as ordinary commerce, and AI chips increasingly belong in that category.
This does not mean America should retreat from AI development.
asserted
America → understand → development
We should build faster, innovate more aggressively and maintain as large a technological advantage over China as possible.
asserted
We → build → China
But there is a difference between racing ahead and helping your adversary catch up.
asserted
adversary → be → ?
Trump should use the Xi meeting to turn America’s chip advantage into negotiating leverage.
asserted
Trump → use → leverage
If China wants greater access to advanced American computing power, then Beijing should have to accept meaningful, verifiable limits on the most dangerous forms of AI development.
asserted
Beijing → want → development
We should demand transparency around massive compute clusters and clear restrictions on capabilities that could threaten U.S. national security or escape meaningful human control.
uncertain
that → demand → control
China has given us little reason to rely on promises.
asserted
China → give → promises
The standard should be simple: Trust nothing.
asserted
standard → trust → nothing
This is where Reagan’s example matters.
asserted
example → matter → ?
He did not negotiate with the Soviet Union because America was weak.
asserted
America → negotiate → Union
He rebuilt American strength first, then used that strength to secure limits on a dangerous arms race.
asserted
He → rebuild → race
He understood something we should remember today: You do not surrender your leverage before negotiations begin.
asserted
negotiations → understand → leverage
Trump should apply that lesson to the defining technological competition of our time.
asserted
Trump → apply → time
America should lead in AI.
asserted
America → lead → AI
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
