Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, has predicted that this year's El Nino will be the biggest in over a century, with sea surface temperatures rising to an "unheard of" level of 3 degrees above average. According to Scaife, the El Nino is already having strong effects, with temperatures running about 2.6 degrees above a rolling 30-year average. The pattern is expected to cause severe droughts in South America and the West Pacific, as well as increased rainfall and storminess in the UK around November time. Scaife warned of long-term, persistent conditions that could impact food security globally.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-21,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office in Britain, predicted that this year's El Nino weather pattern will be the biggest and strongest on record, surpassing anything seen in over a century. According to Scaife, sea surface temperatures are expected to rise by 3 degrees above average, with some areas already experiencing temperatures 2.6 degrees above a 30-year baseline. This unprecedented event is likely to cause severe droughts in regions such as South America and the West Pacific, where tropical temperatures will be significantly affected. El Nino occurs when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, triggering changes in global weather patterns. Scaife described this event as "unheard of" in modern climate records, with its peak expected to occur soon.
Written for “El Nino Weather Predictions” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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No political leaning scored for article 1761 · logged 2026-08-31
British forecaster predicts biggest, strongest El Nino in living memory
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This year’s El Nino weather pattern will be the biggest in over a century, warming sea surface temperatures to an “unheard of” level, Britain’s national weather agency predicted on Aug 21.
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The El Nino weather pattern is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 deg C above the baseline average, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns, and causing warmer global temperatures overall.
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Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC “we are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3 degrees.
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He called it “an unprecedented event”, adding: “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts”.
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The anomalous warmth, which is “up to nearly 2 degrees already”, will have particularly strong effects throughout the tropics, Scaife said, “where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America and the West Pacific”.
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Temperatures in the region are currently running about 2.6 deg C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard.
“These are not short-term weather forecasts.
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We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here.
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There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security,” said Scaife, a physicist who specialises in climate modelling.
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The weather pattern is also expected to cause “increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time”, Scaife said.
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