If the UK suddenly found itself at war, would you know what to do?
asserted
you → find → what
Do you know what would be expected of you?
asserted
what → know → you
The Government wants us all to start preparing for severe disruption to our lives.
asserted
us → want → lives
It wants us to stockpile canned food and drinking water, strengthen our civic resilience, and plan for the possibility of war.
asserted
us → want → war
Work has begun on the government's so-called "war book", which hasn't been updated in decades.
asserted
which → begin → decades
The UK's most senior soldier has sounded the alarm.
asserted
soldier → sound → alarm
The Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton this week said the threat from Russia meant Britain was living through the "most dangerous" period of his 35-year career in the armed forces.
asserted
Britain → say → forces
But the chances of Russian tanks rolling up Whitehall are surely negligible.
asserted
tanks → roll → Whitehall
"It's not the tanks you need to worry about," says historian Margaret MacMillan, author of War: How Conflict Shaped Us.
asserted
Conflict → need → Us
It's the hacking into systems on which so many things depend.
asserted
things → depend → which
The possibility for asymmetric war, for cyber war, is growing by leaps and bounds.
asserted
possibility → grow → leaps
Are we ready to approve large increases in defence spending, and for the sacrifices that that might entail in other areas of our national life?
uncertain
that → approve → life
Or does the threat seem too far-fetched to be real?
asserted
threat → seem → ?
"I think we have become used to the idea that peace is the normal state of affairs, that it's going to last," says McMillan.
asserted
McMillan → think → affairs
"So no, I don't think we are psychologically prepared… but I do think that we are beginning to recognise that war is something that is closer to us than we'd like to think".
asserted
we → think → us
Archive film footage showing Britons in 1913 enjoying days at the races or watching the cricket contrasts sharply with what followed during the horrors of World War One.
asserted
what → show → War
"In a sense it's now a bit like those Edwardian summers before 1914, when there was a lot of talk of war but the notion of actually going to war seemed so far-fetched as to be beyond belief and I think that's where we are at the moment," says retired British General Sir Richard Shirreff, a former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
asserted
Shirreff → be → moment
In 1914, recruitment stations were flooded with volunteers eager to serve their country.
asserted
stations → flood → country
In Britain, that generation was raised on heroic tales of empire-building, in which war was one glorious cavalry charge, leading to swift victory and everyone home by Christmas.
asserted
war → raise → Christmas
But the experience of what came to be known as the Great War seared itself into the popular consciousness and survives in our collective imagination.
One in eight of the men who enlisted in the UK left their bones in the fields of Flanders and France, Mesopotamia and Gallipoli.
asserted
who → come → Flanders
The survivors carved their unspeakable grief into the landscape with the erection of thousands of war memorials.
asserted
survivors → carve → memorials
The pain of it touched every community in the land.
asserted
pain → touch → land
That conflict, says Margaret MacMillan, changed fundamentally the way Europe thought about war.
"
asserted
Europe → say → war
The experience of the First World War showed just how dreadful modern war is…
asserted
war → show → War
And the idea that war could be glamorous never really came back after that."
uncertain
war → come → that
A crisis of disbelief
Europeans, and especially Western Europe's leadership elites, have succumbed to a decades-long "crisis of disbelief", argues Andrew Michta, a Polish-born American academic who is professor of strategic studies at the Hamilton School, University of Florida.
asserted
who → succumb → Florida
He argues that the UK, in common with many European nations, has very low levels of psychological preparedness, and that authorities are not being candid about the looming threats.
"The Germans have totally disarmed during the last 30 years.
asserted
Germans → argue → years
The UK is also largely disarmed and, most importantly, mentally.
asserted
UK → disarm → ?
There is no readiness for what's happening because the policy elites are not addressing their publics in a way that would honestly state the gravity of the situation," Michta says.
asserted
Michta → be → situation
When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, many European countries began a decades-long winding down of military preparedness, dramatically cutting defence spending, in the belief that the threat from Russia had disappeared.
asserted
threat → collapse → Russia
Michta singles out Germany's heavy reliance on Russian energy via the Nord Stream gas pipelines - which transported huge quantities of gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea - in what he sees as the mistaken belief that Berlin could manage its relationship with Moscow via political and economic means.
uncertain
Berlin → single → means
"So you've lived through 20 years of appeasement in Europe driven by the elites' lack of willingness or courage… to articulate how the situation was changing and how rapidly."
asserted
situation → live → willingness
General Sir Richard Shirreff argues that Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was the real turning point, the moment Russia revealed itself as a tenacious threat to western security.
"
asserted
Russia → argue → security
The reality is that Russia believes it's been at war with Nato since 2014.
asserted
it → believe → 2014
I would never take the Russians for granted.
asserted
I → take → Russians
It would not be beyond the realms of possibility for them to try to unhinge Nato by, for example, attempting to take over Spitsbergen [in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard] or something else indirect.
asserted
them → try → Svalbard
"So that's what we need to be prepared for".
asserted
we → need → what
Mounting calls for increases in defence spending are rooted in a belief that the best way to prevent a war is to be ready - psychologically and militarily - to fight one.
asserted
way → mount → one
Not everyone agrees.
asserted
everyone → agree → ?
The belief that we are under threat is key, says psychologist Jim Orford, professor emeritus of clinical and community psychology at the University of Birmingham.
asserted
Orford → say → Birmingham
…and 57 more, not listed.
The Aporia
