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US fertility rates have dropped by nearly a quarter since just before the Great Recession and are projected to continue decreasing over the next few decades. Currently, about one in four births in the US is to an immigrant mother, accounting for between 800,000 to 900,000 children annually. Despite having higher fertility rates than native-born Americans—1.79 versus 1.53—the foreign-born rate is expected to decline more sharply over time. By 2056, the total US fertility rate will be just above replacement level, and population growth may begin slowing significantly, potentially leading to a population decrease in the second half of this century.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Fertility rates among American women have dropped by nearly 25.5% in less than two decades, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since 2007, one year before the Great Recession. Currently, roughly one in four births in the US are to foreign-born mothers, with immigrants accounting for between 22 and 25% of all US births annually—approximately 800,000 to 900,000 children per year. Despite having a higher fertility rate than US-born women (1.79 vs. 1.53), immigrants' birth rates are also below the replacement level and are expected to decline faster in coming decades. Between 2026 and 2056, US total fertility rates will drop from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a decrease of 3.2% for immigrants and 2% for US-born women, indicating future population growth could slow significantly.
Written for “Fertility Rate Decline Usa” on 2026-09-18,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political
question, so it has no leaning score. That is an
answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly
or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it
anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political
position.
No political leaning scored for article 17415 · logged 2026-09-18
Fertility rates among American women have plummeted by almost a quarter in less than two decades and are set to fall further in the coming years, as roughly one in four births in the US are now to foreign-born mothers, according to government figures.
uncertain
births → plummet → figures
That year, one year before the Great Recession, is the last year that US fertility rates were above the 2.1 figure needed for natural replacement and represents a 25.5% fall in that time.
asserted
rates → need → time
The data also shows that foreign-born mothers now account for roughly a quarter (between 22 and 25%) of all US births, representing approximately 800,000 to 900,000 children per year.
asserted
mothers → show → year
Immigrants have a higher fertility rate than US-born women, with 1.79 births per woman compared to 1.53 births.
However, both are far below the replacement rate, while the foreign-born fertility rate is set to drop faster than their US-born equivalents in the coming decades, according to the data.
uncertain
rate → have → data
Between 2026 and 2056, the US total fertility rate is set to fall slightly more from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a drop of 3.2%.
asserted
rate → set → %
The drop among US-born women will be from 1.53 to 1.50 births per woman, a fall of 2%.
asserted
drop → bear → %
In contrast, the drop among foreign-born women is forecast to be from 1.79 to 1.66 births per woman by the year 2056, a fall of 7.3%.
asserted
drop → bear → %
The report shows that America’s population growth is likely to slow in the next 30 years, falling from an average of 0.3% a year in the next decade to an average of 0.1% per year from 2037 to 2056.
asserted
growth → show → 2056
That means America’s population may begin shrinking in the second half of the 21st century, even factoring in immigration.
uncertain
population → mean → immigration
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