The Aporia · US fertility rate plummets by a quarter in less than 20 years — and 25% of births are now to immigrant women

US fertility rate plummets by a quarter in less than 20 years — and 25% of births are now to immigrant women

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Blair, A. (2026, September 17). US fertility rate plummets by a quarter in less than 20 years — and 25% of births are now to immigrant women. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/09/17/us-news/us-fertility-rate-plummets-by-a-quarter-in-less-than-20-years-and-25-of-births-are-now-to-immigrant-women/

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Quick Summary

US fertility rates have dropped by nearly a quarter since just before the Great Recession and are projected to continue decreasing over the next few decades. Currently, about one in four births in the US is to an immigrant mother, accounting for between 800,000 to 900,000 children annually. Despite having higher fertility rates than native-born Americans—1.79 versus 1.53—the foreign-born rate is expected to decline more sharply over time. By 2056, the total US fertility rate will be just above replacement level, and population growth may begin slowing significantly, potentially leading to a population decrease in the second half of this century.

Written by AI on 2026-09-18, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Fertility rates among American women have dropped by nearly 25.5% in less than two decades, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since 2007, one year before the Great Recession. Currently, roughly one in four births in the US are to foreign-born mothers, with immigrants accounting for between 22 and 25% of all US births annually—approximately 800,000 to 900,000 children per year. Despite having a higher fertility rate than US-born women (1.79 vs. 1.53), immigrants' birth rates are also below the replacement level and are expected to decline faster in coming decades. Between 2026 and 2056, US total fertility rates will drop from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a decrease of 3.2% for immigrants and 2% for US-born women, indicating future population growth could slow significantly.

Written for “Fertility Rate Decline Usa” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

33%

3 of 9 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

not political

takes no side on a contested political question

Publisher signals

66/100

New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

Outlets on this story

Health

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Who wrote this

Anthony Blair

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All 90 articles by Anthony Blair →

Narrative

Claims (9 extracted, 3 hedged)

Fertility rates among American women have plummeted by almost a quarter in less than two decades and are set to fall further in the coming years, as roughly one in four births in the US are now to foreign-born mothers, according to government figures. uncertain

births → plummet → figures

That year, one year before the Great Recession, is the last year that US fertility rates were above the 2.1 figure needed for natural replacement and represents a 25.5% fall in that time. asserted

rates → need → time

The data also shows that foreign-born mothers now account for roughly a quarter (between 22 and 25%) of all US births, representing approximately 800,000 to 900,000 children per year. asserted

mothers → show → year

Immigrants have a higher fertility rate than US-born women, with 1.79 births per woman compared to 1.53 births. However, both are far below the replacement rate, while the foreign-born fertility rate is set to drop faster than their US-born equivalents in the coming decades, according to the data. uncertain

rate → have → data

Between 2026 and 2056, the US total fertility rate is set to fall slightly more from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a drop of 3.2%. asserted

rate → set → %

The drop among US-born women will be from 1.53 to 1.50 births per woman, a fall of 2%. asserted

drop → bear → %

In contrast, the drop among foreign-born women is forecast to be from 1.79 to 1.66 births per woman by the year 2056, a fall of 7.3%. asserted

drop → bear → %

The report shows that America’s population growth is likely to slow in the next 30 years, falling from an average of 0.3% a year in the next decade to an average of 0.1% per year from 2037 to 2056. asserted

growth → show → 2056

That means America’s population may begin shrinking in the second half of the 21st century, even factoring in immigration. uncertain

population → mean → immigration

US fertility rate plummets by a quarter in less than 20 years — and 25% of births are now to immigrant women

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Claims (9 extracted, 3 hedged)