Why Ohio State is still the championship favorite despite historic collapse to Texas

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-09-17 · by Sean Treppedi

Quick Summary

Ohio State remains the favorite to win the national championship despite losing to Texas in a historic fourth-quarter collapse where Texas rallied from 9 points down with 20 points in the final quarter. DraftKings adjusted Ohio State’s odds to +530, still shorter than Texas at +650. This resilience is due to the expanded College Football Playoff format and the belief that a single loss doesn’t diminish their championship prospects, as evidenced by their performance in 2024 after two regular-season losses.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On Saturday, college football saw unprecedented chaos as Texas staged a remarkable 20-point comeback to defeat top-ranked Ohio State with a final score of 24-23 in Austin, Texas. This dramatic turn of events came after Oklahoma State unexpectedly beat No. 6 Oregon, causing shockwaves through the college football world despite Texas's rise to the top spot. Although Ohio State dropped to No. 6 in the AP Top 25 rankings, their odds to win the national championship only slightly decreased from +550 to +530 at DraftKings. This illustrates how a single loss, even against an elite opponent like Texas, does not significantly impact a team's chances of reaching the playoffs and potentially winning the title in today’s expanded College Football Playoff era.

Written for “College Football Chaos Era” on 2026-09-17, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 16130 · logged 2026-09-17

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
9%
2 of 23 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
59.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
2
Sports
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-17 · how these are computed

Story

📰 College Football Chaos Era
Sports · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 33 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles discuss the same specific football game where Texas defeated Ohio State in a comeback victory.”

Publisher

New York Post · 1049 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Sean Treppedi
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas’ historic 24-23 triumph over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday will be one to remember, but it wasn’t enough to shake up college football futures markets: the Buckeyes’ odds as favorites to win the national championship only got shorter.
🔮 The Bills and Lions will break in Highmark Stadium for its first game ever on “Thursday Night Football.”
🔮 Josh Allen and the Bills will take to Highmark Stadium for the first time in an NFL regular-season game on a short week following a 36-31 win in Houston.
🔮 Strap in for what could be the shootout of the week in Josh Allen vs. Jared Goff.
🔮 The largest spread of the slate could never have accounted for a sloppy, mistake-filled performance that left us questioning whether Justin Herbert deserves his elite praise.
🔮 One of these players could prove to be league winners, or at least effective additions in the short term.
🔮 Baltimore will play its first game without John Harbaugh at the helm in 19 years.
🔮 You wouldn’t know it, but he still led the team in spite of this.
🔮 bet365 Sportsbook bonus code for Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin When you sign up this weekend, enter the bet365 bonus code, and once you place a $10 bet, you will receive $365 in bonuses, regardless of the bet’s outcome.
🔮 UCLA and Cal will clash at 10:30 p.m. ET in an ACC clash that has the Bruins set as 1.5-point favorites.
Also by Sean Treppedi
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by Sean Treppedi →

Topics

Buckeyes DraftKings Ohio State Texas The Post

Subjects

Ohio State ORG · 7× Texas GPE · 5× Buckeyes ORG · 4× DraftKings ORG · 2× Longhorns ORG · 2× The Post ORG · 2× Arch Manning PERSON · 1× Avello PERSON · 1× Johnny Avello PERSON · 1× Oregon GPE · 1×

Narrative

Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas’ historic 24-23 triumph over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday will be one to remember, but it wasn’t enough to shake up college football futures markets: the Buckeyes’ odds as favorites to win the national championship only got shorter.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-17
🔮 Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas’ historic 24-23 triumph over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday will be one to remember, but it wasn’t enough to shake up college football futures markets: the Buckeyes’ odds as favorites to win the national championship only got shorter.

Claims (23 extracted, 2 hedged)

Not every loss is created equal. asserted
loss → create → ?
Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas’ historic 24-23 triumph over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday will be one to remember, but it wasn’t enough to shake up college football futures markets: the Buckeyes’ odds as favorites to win the national championship only got shorter. asserted
odds → remember → championship
Ohio State moved from +550 to +530 at DraftKings after Texas marched back with 20 points in the fourth quarter — the largest fourth-quarter rally to defeat a No. 1 team. asserted
Texas → move → team
The Buckeyes sank to No. 6 in the AP Top 25 while Texas, now the No. 1 team in the country, sits next on the board, priced at +650. asserted
Texas → sink → +650
This surprising market reaction underscores just how little one regular-season loss to a contender can mean in the expanded College Football Playoff era, according to DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello. uncertain
loss → underscore → Avello
“In today’s college football landscape, a team can suffer a loss or two and still make a championship run. asserted
team → suffer → run
Ohio State proved that in 2024, winning the national title after two regular-season losses,” Avello told The Post. asserted
Avello → prove → Post
Ohio State was ranked No. 3 when it lost 32-31 to No. 4 Oregon on Oct. 12 and No. 2 when it was shut out 13-0 by an unranked Michigan team on Nov. 30, 2024. asserted
it → rank → Nov.
That was the first season with an expanded 12-team playoff format, featuring four rounds, with first-round games played at on-campus sites and subsequent rounds hosted by major bowl games. asserted
That → expand → games
The game script and conditions also carry weight. asserted
script → carry → weight
The Buckeyes commanded most of the game until the fourth-quarter collapse, outgaining the Longhorns by 36 in total yardage. asserted
Buckeyes → command → yardage
They did that despite the hostility of playing in front of 100,119 opposing fans and the first three quarters ultimately mattered more than the final result. asserted
quarters → do → result
“While Ohio State did blow a lead, they were in control for most of that game in a hostile road environment. asserted
they → blow → environment
The result could have gone either way,” BetMGM public relations manager John Ewing told The Post. uncertain
Ewing → go → Post
This also wasn’t a Big Ten loss, so Ohio State still has a viable road to winning the conference and reaching the playoff. asserted
State → have → playoff
“A one-point road loss to Texas — one of the highest-rated teams on our board — doesn’t materially change our view of either team,” Aviello said. asserted
Aviello → rat → team
“Ohio State remains our top-rated team, with elite talent across the field and a clear path to the College Football Playoff. asserted
State → remain → Playoff
The same logic works in reverse, as Texas’ late push when it reverted to the run and short passing game didn’t erase their struggles beforehand. asserted
it → work → struggles
The victory pads its playoff pursuit early, but it’s more or less a feather in the cap. asserted
it → pad → cap
The Longhorns will have to prove their adjustments can last with a gauntlet of six ranked teams ahead on their schedule. asserted
adjustments → have → schedule
They’ll first get a tune-up against UTSA on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET while the Buckeyes return home to face Illinois at noon. asserted
Buckeyes → get → noon
Why Trust New York Post Betting Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. asserted
Treppedi → trust → Post
He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk. asserted
that → focus → risk
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