Oil flows nearly tripled before US-Iran MoU expired, analysis shows

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · collected 2026-08-20 · by John Power
Read the original at Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ↗

Summary

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was in effect, with 374 million barrels of oil exiting the Gulf over a 60-day period. The rate of oil flow increased from an average of 2.3 million barrels per day before the MoU to 6.1 million barrels per day during its term. However, this still only accounted for about 40% of pre-war levels, which were around 15 million barrels per day. This analysis comes from ship tracking data provided by trade intelligence firm Kpler.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-20, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
18
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
28%
5 of 18 hedged
Leaning
not scored
needs a local LLM pass
Publisher trust
96.5
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
1
World
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-08-20 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during a 60-day window while the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran was in effect. This equaled about 6.1 million barrels per day, a significant increase from the previous period. According to ship tracking data, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during this time, although they remained far below pre-war levels. The MoU led to a boost in oil flows, but volumes only reached about 40% of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2025. The majority of shipments occurred in the first three weeks after the MoU was signed on June 17.

Written for “Iran Oil Exports Increase” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.20 Confidence medium
Leaning score -0.20 for article 1579 (medium confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-08-21

Story

📰 Iran Oil Exports Increase
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 28% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
News | Euronews RSS
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article B mentions oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz during a MoU between the US and Iran, while Article A reports on an incident where a ship was hit by a projectile in the strait, suggesting two separate events”
CBC | World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 7 of 35 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A discusses Trump's statement about no talks with Iran, while Article B provides analysis on oil flows during a different time period (when the MoU was in effect), indicating two separate events”
The Straits Times World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes a threat made by Trump, while Article B reports on oil flow data during a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, indicating two separate events”
Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 7 of 65 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses Trump's statements about the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B reports on oil flow data during a specific 60-day window covered by the US-Iran MoU”
The Independent World
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 7 of 35 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A discusses oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz while the MoU between the US and Iran was in effect, whereas Article B reports on casualties suffered by US service members since the conflict began”
The Independent World
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 2 of 23 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz while a MoU was in effect, whereas Article B reports on the impact of stalled US-Iran peace talks on shipping through the Strait.”
ABC News: Top Stories
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A discusses oil flow data during a MoU between US and Iran, while Article B reports on an Iranian official's statement regarding oil exports and an incident involving a tanker being struck by a projectile.”
Top News - UPI.com
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 54
“Article A discusses oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz during a MoU between US and Iran, while Article B reports on an attack on an oil tanker near the Strait”
The Straits Times World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes a statement made by Ghalibaf regarding US-Iran negotiations, while Article B discusses oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz during the MoU's effect, indicating two separate topics related to the same issue”
Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 5 of 52 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A mentions Trump's threat to designate the Strait of Hormuz a US territory, while Article B reports on oil flows through the Strait during the expired MoU period, without mentioning Trump's statement”

Publisher

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 173 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
SignalValueWeight
Correction rate 0.000 0.4
Uncertainty density 0.070 0.25
Assertive mismatch rate 0.000 0.35
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

John Power
5 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 US President Donald Trump’s administration has said it aims to sever “every” economic lifeline sustaining Iran in what officials have warned will be the toughest sanctions campaign ever seen.
🔮 It’s trying to prevent a disorderly decline that could spill over into Treasury markets, global funding conditions, and broader financial stability,” Loo told Al Jazeera.
🔮 “Gaining a clear picture of Claude’s understanding of its situation – by examining its reasoning transcripts and running our own analyses – will help us identify the causes of its behavior,” the AI company said in a post on X, referring to its flagship series of large language models.
🔮 Baghaei said Iranian officials were currently engaged in negotiations with Oman on allowing ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz and that issues between the US and Iran would need to be addressed in the “next stages”.
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

INTERCARGO Iran Israel Kpler the Memorandum of Understanding

Subjects

Kpler ORG · 4× INTERCARGO ORG · 3× Iran GPE · 3× Iranian NORP · 2× Israel GPE · 2× Tehran GPE · 2× Washington GPE · 2× Russian NORP · 1× Ukraine GPE · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Some 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day window covered by the since-expired MoU, equalling about 6.1 million barrels per day, trade intelligence firm Kpler said in a briefing published on Wednesday. Recommended Stories list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Trump vows ‘economic warfare’ on countries helping Iran - list 2 of 4At least 6 killed in multiple Russian missile strikes across Ukraine - list 3 of 4Exclusive: Pentagon sends ‘political loyalty’ survey to US allies - list 4 of 4Australian
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 · Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
Oil flows nearly tripled before US-Iran MoU expired, analysis shows · mixed framing

Claims (18 extracted, 5 hedged)

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran was in effect, though it remained far below pre-war levels, according to ship tracking data. uncertain
it → triple → data
Some 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day window covered by the since-expired MoU, equalling about 6.1 million barrels per day, trade intelligence firm Kpler said in a briefing published on Wednesday. Recommended Stories list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Trump vows ‘economic warfare’ on countries helping Iran - list 2 of 4At least 6 killed in multiple Russian missile strikes across Ukraine - list 3 of 4Exclusive: Pentagon sends ‘political loyalty’ survey to US allies - list 4 of 4Australian asserted
Pentagon → exit → allies
Israel drops World Central Kitchen deaths case asserted
Israel → drop → case
In the period from April until the MoU was signed on June 17, an average of 2.3 million bpd were exported via the Gulf, Kpler said. asserted
Kpler → sign → Gulf
While the MoU led to a significant boost in oil flows, volumes only reached about 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2025, according to Kpler. uncertain
that → lead → Kpler
More than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement, and “by the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint”, said Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler. asserted
Belostrino → occur → Kpler
The MoU, announced on June 17 following a flurry of diplomatic activity primarily facilitated by Pakistan, expired on Monday without a peace deal in place amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran. asserted
MoU → announce → Washington
The expiration of the MoU, which US and Iranian officials cast as a step towards a permanent end to the war, came as attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to cast a shadow over one of the most critical nodes in the global energy supply chain. asserted
attacks → cast → chain
Five commercial vessels have been attacked in the strait over the past week, according to the UKMTO Operations Centre, including a cargo ship that reported being struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday, resulting in the death of one seafarer. uncertain
that → attack → seafarer
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO), a trade association, identified the deceased mariner as a crew member on board the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity. asserted
Association → identify → carrier
“Behind every vessel caught up in conflict are seafarers – civilians carrying out their professional duties, far from their homes and families, who keep global trade moving,” INTERCARGO said in a statement. asserted
INTERCARGO → catch → statement
“INTERCARGO reiterates its fundamental position: seafarers are civilians and must never become targets or collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts. asserted
seafarers → reiterate → conflicts
No government or group has claimed responsibility for the attack, the first such incident involving a confirmed death since July. asserted
government → claim → July
At least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, according to the International Maritime Organization. Iranian forces have claimed responsibility, or been blamed for, dozens of attacks on commercial shipping since the start of the war. US forces have acknowledged responsibility for about half a dozen attacks, including a June 10 strike on a Palau-flagged tanker that killed three Indian seafarers. uncertain
that → kill → seafarers
The critical strait, a conduit for about one-fifth of the global oil supply before the war, saw 73 transits between August 10 and 16, down from 91 the previous week, according to preliminary data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence. uncertain
strait → see → Intelligence
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up about 0.3 percent at $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT. asserted
futures → edge → GMT
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia-based KCM Trade, said markets anticipate further declines in oil flows amid the impasse between Washington and Tehran. “The market isn’t convinced by the more optimistic take from the US administration on the security of passage through the Strait,” Waterer told Al Jazeera. asserted
Waterer → base → Jazeera
“Until there is clearer evidence of sustained, safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, confidence among operators is likely to stay low and volumes are unlikely to recover meaningfully,” Waterer said. asserted
Waterer → be → operators
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