Impoverished by war in Iran, Afghan migrants return to Taliban rule

Dawn · collected 2026-09-17 · by Reuters
Read the original at Dawn ↗

Summary

Mohammad Saeed and his family returned to Afghanistan from Iran due to severe economic hardship in Iran caused by conflict and sanctions, finding their savings drastically devalued. Reuters reports that thousands of Afghan migrants are returning home through the Islam Qala border crossing between Iran and Herat province, despite the Taliban's restrictive policies for women. The article highlights widespread unemployment and inflation rates reaching nearly 90%, making basic necessities unaffordable in Iran.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
52
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
15%
8 of 52 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject
Correction & hedging signals
95.0
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
unclustered
not grouped into a story yet
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-17 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.45 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.45 for article 15460 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-17

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Dawn · 320 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
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Who wrote this

Reuters
115 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Reuters
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All 115 articles by Reuters →

Topics

Afghanistan Afghans Iran Iranian Taliban

Subjects

Iran GPE · 14× Afghanistan GPE · 6× Afghans NORP · 6× Iranian NORP · 5× Taliban ORG · 5× Afghan NORP · 3× Herat GPE · 2× IOM ORG · 2× Saeed PERSON · 2× Mohammad Saeed PERSON · 1×

Narrative

When the nearby military base was repeatedly hit by missiles and work dried up amid the war this year, Jabbar said, extended Afghan family members encouraged him to return, promising work and safety from American missiles. When Jabbar arrived in Afghanistan with virtually no belongings or savings, relatives donated essentials and lent him money.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-17
🔮 In the past, some Afghan salesmen could make profits in Iran’s bazaars by selling goods at around double the price at which they’d been purchased, said Sayed Jawed Qazi Khani, a 40-year-old migrant.

Claims (52 extracted, 8 hedged)

Mohammad Saeed had just turned 18 when he fled to Iran with his parents and younger brother and sister, escaping the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. asserted
he → turn → 2021
Now Saeed and his family are among thousands who have returned home to escape the economic crisis in Iran triggered by the conflict with the US and Israel. asserted
who → return → US
The family came back nearly empty-handed, Saeed said. “The Iranian currency had fallen so sharply,” he said, that the family’s savings, held in Iranian rials, lost over two-thirds of their value. asserted
savings → come → value
For decades, Iran’s industrialised and much larger economy offered Afghans an escape from poverty and, in the 1990s and again since 2021, from the harsh rule of the Taliban. asserted
economy → offer → Taliban
Now, Iran’s economy has collapsed so severely that many Afghans said they saw returning as their only option. asserted
they → collapse → option
They are coming back with their wives and daughters, despite the severe restrictions on women in Afghanistan, with curbs on their education, travel and employment. asserted
They → come → education
Reuters journalists spent one week in the border regions of Afghanistan’s Herat province and neighbouring Farah speaking to people returning from Iran. asserted
journalists → spend → Iran
Free to discuss it without fear of Iranian government scrutiny, most of those returning described a shattered economy in Iran. asserted
most → discuss → Iran
At the dusty Islam Qala border crossing between Iran and Afghanistan, a near-constant flow of returning migrants were undergoing document checks and registration formalities. asserted
flow → return → checks
Officials were sitting in makeshift shipping containers. asserted
Officials → sit → containers
Coming back to their homeland, the returnees were faced with barren desert mountains and a pothole-plastered highway, the road to Herat, the biggest city in western Afghanistan. asserted
returnees → come → Afghanistan
Most returning Afghans said they had been out of work for months and crushed by spiralling inflation before they decided to return. asserted
they → return → inflation
Compounded by the impact of tightening sanctions and a US naval blockade that has recently left Iran without shipping any meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, consumer prices have surged by nearly 90 per cent year on year, according to Iran’s Statistical Centre. uncertain
prices → compound → Centre
Food inflation has been even higher, at almost 130pc, making bread, milk and other essentials increasingly unaffordable. asserted
bread → make → 130pc
Iran’s mission in New York did not respond to a request for comment. asserted
mission → respond → comment
In the past, some Afghan salesmen could make profits in Iran’s bazaars by selling goods at around double the price at which they’d been purchased, said Sayed Jawed Qazi Khani, a 40-year-old migrant. uncertain
Khani → make → which
But inflation and vanishing savings among both Iranians and Afghan migrants led to a collapse in consumer demand. asserted
inflation → vanish → demand
“What remained was day labour,” he said, often at the same wage as one year ago. asserted
he → remain → wage
Only 29pc of Afghans who recently returned from Iran said they had any savings left after their average income fell by nearly one-third compared to pre-crisis levels, according to surveys by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). uncertain
income → return → Migration
More women return asserted
women → return → ?
More than two million Afghans have left Iran over the past two years. asserted
Afghans → leave → years
Most were deported or pressured to leave by Iranian authorities before the latest wave of returnees, who left amid the war, according to data from the UN Refugee Agency. uncertain
who → deport → Agency
Forced deportation remains a leading reason why Afghans are returning, with unaccompanied men long appearing to be the primary focus of Iranian authorities. asserted
men → force → authorities
But compared to pre-crisis levels, the crowds of returning Afghans increasingly also include women and entire families, according to returnees and IOM data. uncertain
crowds → compare → returnees
For many Afghan mothers and their daughters who had held out in Iran after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Iran’s recent economic crisis has confronted them with an almost impossible choice: face poverty there, or return to a country where half the women leave home only once or twice a month, according to the UN. uncertain
women → hold → UN
The Taliban’s rules restrict women from travelling without male guardians and have barred them from some professions. asserted
rules → restrict → professions
The Taliban insist they respect women’s rights in accordance with Islamic law. asserted
they → insist → law
Abdul Jabbar, 44, said he did not want to take his wife, two daughters, grandson and mother back to Afghanistan. asserted
he → say → Afghanistan
Their family had lived in Iran for nearly four decades and Jabbar had found work as an exterior finisher of buildings. asserted
Jabbar → live → buildings
The family had a comfortable life and a modern apartment in Kerman, near an Iranian military base. asserted
family → have → base
His face flushed from the heat of the flatbread oven wedged into the one room they now have in Afghanistan, he said in an interview: “I used to say that even if Afghanistan was only two streets away, I would not go.” asserted
I → flush → interview
When the nearby military base was repeatedly hit by missiles and work dried up amid the war this year, Jabbar said, extended Afghan family members encouraged him to return, promising work and safety from American missiles. When Jabbar arrived in Afghanistan with virtually no belongings or savings, relatives donated essentials and lent him money. asserted
relatives → hit → money
Two months on, he remains unemployed and, unable to repay the money, has worn out his welcome. asserted
he → remain → welcome
The family now lives in a sweltering mud-brick house with only one room where solar panels are the sole source of electricity. asserted
panels → live → electricity
The dusty carpet was donated. asserted
carpet → donate → ?
His 15-year-old daughter Setayesh, who wants to become a fashion designer, misses her life in Iran. asserted
who → want → Iran
“If I could, I would go back,” she said. uncertain
she → go → ?
“For my education, my friends.” Restarting a cheese business At Islam Qala, at least 20 to 40 families, including women and girls, return voluntarily each day, said Abdul Ghani Qazizadeh, a senior Taliban government official at the border. asserted
Qazizadeh → restart → border
“The wages they earn are no longer enough to cover their basic living expenses,” he said. asserted
he → earn → expenses
Many Afghan workers complained that their Iranian employers were withholding wages, he said. asserted
he → complain → wages
…and 12 more, not listed.
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