New research indicates that England needs above-average rainfall for the next seven months to recover from drought by spring 2027. Currently, almost three-quarters of England remains in drought, with some regions like Devon and Cornwall at high risk of continuing drought conditions despite recent wet weather. The Environment Agency (EA) states that around 120% of typical rainfall is needed between now and April for recovery, emphasizing the ongoing seriousness of water shortages.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-17,
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Story summary
As of September, almost three-quarters of England remains in drought following an exceptionally dry spring and summer, despite some recent wet weather. The Environment Agency (EA) reports that about 120% of typical rainfall is needed across England between now and April 2024 for recovery from drought conditions. Even under the most likely scenario, which predicts a wetter autumn than normal based on Met Office forecasts, areas like Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia may still experience drought by spring 2027. According to EA definitions, severe droughts have extensive impacts on water supplies, farming, communities, and the economy; however, there is currently only a 1% chance of such conditions in the coming months.
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- Published
Above-average rainfall is needed across England for the next seven months for all areas to recover from drought by spring 2027, according to new research.
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areas → publish → research
The Environment Agency (EA) stated that despite some wet weather during the first half of September, almost three-quarters of England remains in drought following an exceptionally dry spring and summer as well as a succession of heatwaves.
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quarters → state → heatwaves
It says around 120% of typical rainfall is needed between now and April for all areas to be considered out of drought.
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areas → say → drought
Even under the most likely rainfall scenario - which predicts a wetter autumn than normal based on the latest Met Office forecasts - Devon and Cornwall and East Anglia could still be in drought by the start of spring 2027.
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Devon → predict → spring
Other predictions suggest there is also roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of England will still be in drought next spring, but currently only a 1% chance of a severe drought in the coming months.
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half → suggest → months
The EA defines severe drought as a situation where water shortages have extensive and lasting impacts on the environment, farming, communities and the economy, and where there may be a serious threat to public water supplies.
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shortages → define → supplies
England has not seen a severe drought since 1976.
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England → see → 1976
Recent rain has brought some relief, however, groundwater levels remain low and reservoir storage across England stood at just under 57% last week, around a fifth below the level normally expected at this time of year.
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storage → bring → year
EA Chief Executive Philip Duffy said: "The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months.
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we → say → months
A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer.
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we → reverse → spring
We still need everyone to use a little less water to speed up the drought recovery.
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everyone → need → recovery
In Scotland the recent rainfall has not yet reversed the impact of months of dry conditions around parts of its east coast, with four areas now at significant water scarcity whilst the whole of Wales also remains in drought status.
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whole → reverse → status
Significant water scarcity is declared when river flows remain below the recognised low flow threshold for 30 consecutive days.
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flows → declare → days
Although there is some rain in the short-range forecast, it is unlikely to be the kind of prolonged amount needed to alleviate the dry conditions over much of the UK.
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it → be → UK
Thursday will start off with some rain across south-eastern areas of England, taking some time to clear away from the Kent coast.
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Thursday → start → coast
Sunny spells will develop elsewhere with some showers, especially across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.
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spells → develop → Scotland
With an area of low pressure situated to the north of Scotland, there will also be some blustery conditions across the UK.
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area → situate → UK
On Friday patchy rain will spread in from the west, followed by showers in the north-west on Saturday and in the south.
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rain → spread → south
By Sunday rain and showers will ease, leaving largely dry and settled conditions into next week.
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rain → ease → week
The Met Office is forecasting the second half of September will see a return to drier conditions, particularly in the south where the rain is needed the most.
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rain → forecast → south
The latest seasonal outlook from the Met Office indicates an increased likelihood of a wetter-than-average autumn.
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outlook → indicate → autumn
The current El Niño, which is already at near-record levels, is one of several factors influencing the outlook.
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which → influence → outlook
Historically El Niño events have been associated with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK in late autumn and early winter.
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events → associate → autumn
While wetter weather could help drought recovery, periods of heavy rain could also bring a risk of flooding.
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periods → help → flooding
The Environment Agency says floodwater can be difficult to store for public water supply because it arrives quickly and can contain high levels of sediment and nitrates washed off the land.
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it → say → land
The Aporia
