United States President Donald Trump has insisted that his military remains in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and suggested this past week that the US might even seek to take charge of the territory.
uncertain
US → insist → territory
On Tuesday, he also claimed that the strait was open for vessels to pass through, despite Iranian insistence that the waterway was closed for all ships that don’t seek Tehran’s approval before transit, and even though the US itself has a naval blockade in place targeting all Iran-linked ships.
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US → claim → ships
At the same time, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally that sits across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran – the waterway lies in the maritime territories of Iran and Oman – in an apparent bid to dissuade Muscat from striking any deal with Tehran to jointly manage the strait.
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waterway → threaten → strait
Amid the claims and counterclaims from both sides, actual data on the traffic passing through the waterway offers vital clues.
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data → pass → clues
We break it down.
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We → break → it
Before the war started, the Strait of Hormuz was largely considered a single waterway, without distinctions between “Iranian” or “Omani” routes, and ships entered and exited along well‑established traffic separation schemes, mostly along the central part of the strait.
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ships → start → strait
Decisions on how ships navigated the strait were determined by port calls, charter terms and safety rather than fear of military consequences.
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ships → navigate → consequences
Since the war has spiked tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway has been fractured into two main routes.
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waterway → spike → routes
Tehran insists on the northern, Iranian route, hugging Iran’s coast near Larak Island and Qeshm Island, and feeding directly into Iranian ports and offshore terminals.
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Tehran → insist → ports
This is the route that Washington insists on, and is the one used by commercial carriers under US Naval protection.
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Washington → insist → protection
What routes do ships carrying oil and gas use?
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ships → carry → oil
Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler shows that 112 vessels carrying crude, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz – either entering the Gulf or leaving it – between August 1 and August 19.
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vessels → show → August
Of those tankers and carriers, 21 openly used the Iranian route and only two formally used the Omani route.
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two → use → route
The remaining 89 vessels, which make up more than 80 percent of the total oil and gas traffic through the strait in this period, went along dark or otherwise unclassified routes.
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which → remain → routes
This happens when a vessel’s movements cannot be fully tracked or clearly linked to a declared route because the vessel either turns off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder or the AIS data does not neatly fit into Kpler’s defined Iranian or Omani corridors.
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data → happen → corridors
Hence, it is not clear which route these vessels took.
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vessels → take → route
“While these transits can be observed once vessels reappear after crossing, the nature of dark routing makes it highly difficult to determine what proportion may also have used the Omani route or to confirm their precise routing from the available data,” Mohamed Rafik Halitim, a customer success manager for maritime and commodities at Kpler, told Al Jazeera.
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Halitim → observe → Jazeera
Kpler’s data shows that 236 ships in all transited through Hormuz between August 1 and August 19.
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ships → show → August
This includes not just oil and gas vessels, but others carrying dry cargo and chemicals.
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This → include → cargo
Of these ships, 83 openly used the Iranian route, only three publicly used the Omani route and two used the old pre-war route that ran through the centre of the strait.
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that → use → strait
But the bulk of the ships, 148 of them, again went dark or used unknown routes while transiting through the strait.
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bulk → go → strait
That’s more than six out of 10 ships that passed through Hormuz in this period.
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that → ’ → period
By comparison, 35 percent of vessels openly used the Iranian route, and only a handful used the Omani or pre-war route publicly.
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handful → use → route
Why are so many vessels switching off their transponders?
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vessels → switch → transponders
Since the beginning of the war, both Iran and the US have not only threatened, but have actually bombed vessels that they each claim are violating their routes or rules for maritime navigation through the waterway.
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they → threaten → waterway
Hence, several vessels are turning off their transponders to strip away the digital identifiers that military forces use to target them.
“Switching off transponders can reduce the visibility of a vessel’s precise location and movements, although it also creates concerns about maritime safety and transparency,” Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
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Quilliam → turn → Jazeera
“Some operators believe the commercial and security benefits outweigh those risks under current conditions.”
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benefits → believe → conditions
On August 8, the United Arab Emirates accused Iran of attacking a tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) with a missile as it tried to pass through the strait.
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it → accuse → strait
In a statement, ADNOC said that since the beginning of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the strait, killing one crew member and injuring 20.
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15 → say → 20
The ADNOC statement did not blame either side.
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statement → blame → side
Last month, the US fired on an oil tanker traversing through the strait towards Iran’s Kharg Island.
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US → fire → Island
The US said it fired Hellfire missiles at the ship after it ignored several warnings.
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it → say → warnings
On August 11, the US said a Navy helicopter also fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova cargo vessel, adding that the ship was attempting to break its blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman, which connects directly to the Strait of Hormuz.
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which → say → Hormuz
Another reason to switch off transponders is to conduct ship-to-ship cargo transfers, mid-route, without being seen, experts say.
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experts → switch → transfers
“According to sources and data over the past two weeks, some Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have sent out some shipments through the Omani route by turning off their vessel tracking and by doing ship-to-ship transfers,” energy policy researcher and consultant Marc Ayoub told Al Jazeera.
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Ayoub → accord → Jazeera
In essence, a ship that wants to avoid the threat of Iranian missiles would travel through the Omani route with its transponder off, but then passes its cargo over to a ship outside the strait, which then ferries it to its final destination.
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which → want → destination
The original “dark” ship then returns to its port of origin undetected.
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ship → return → origin
Ayoub added that a number of Iranian vessels are also transiting through the Omani route – often including ship-to-ship transfers – to avoid sanctions against Iran and the US blockade.
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number → add → Iran
“They send their shipment to Oman through the Omani route, they change the documents of those shipments so that they appear as if they are exported by Oman, and then they send it to the oil market.”
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they → send → market
Are ships more scared of defying Iran or the US?
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ships → defy → Iran
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
