Are Hormuz ships more willing to defy Iran or the US? What the data shows

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · collected 2026-08-20
Read the original at Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ↗

Summary

US President Donald Trump claims that US military controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but actual data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler suggests otherwise. According to Kpler's data, 112 vessels carrying oil and gas passed through the strait between August 1-19, with only 21 openly using the Iranian route and two formally using the Omani route. The remaining 89 vessels, making up over 80% of total oil and gas traffic, took unknown or unclassified routes that cannot be fully tracked, raising questions about who is actually in control of the waterway.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-20, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
65
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
11%
7 of 65 hedged
Leaning
not scored
needs a local LLM pass
Publisher trust
96.5
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
193
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-08-20 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

Here are the articles grouped by topic:

Iran War

Trade Tariffs

Other

Note that some of the article summaries are quite similar, and it may be worth combining or rephrasing them to reduce duplication.

Written for “US-Iran Trade Dispute Escalation” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 192 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score +0.35 Confidence medium
Leaning score +0.35 for article 1478 (medium confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-08-21

Story

📰 US-Iran Trade Dispute Escalation
Politics · 193 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 11% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBC | World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 36% hedged 4 of 11 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles mention Trump's statement on declaring Hormuz strait a U.S. territory and share identical dates.”
News | Euronews RSS
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on an incident where a ship was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in at least one casualty.”
Home - CBSNews.com
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 14% hedged 23 of 167 📰 publisher trust 58
“Both articles describe President Trump's threat to bomb Oman on August 18, as mentioned in Article A and also referenced in Article B, with no mention of a different date or action.”
The Independent World
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 19% hedged 6 of 31 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on President Donald Trump's threats against Oman and Iran's insistence on closing the Strait of Hormuz in response, with similar quotes from Trump.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 2 of 29 📰 publisher trust 96
“Both articles report on President Trump's threat to bomb Oman in relation to negotiations with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, around the same time period.”
CBC | World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 7 of 35 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same statement made by President Donald Trump on Tuesday regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Straits Times World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same statements made by President Donald Trump on August 20, 2026 regarding control of the Hormuz strait and his threats against Iran and its allies.”
The Straits Times World News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 3 of 29 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles describe different aspects of Trump's statements regarding Iran, but mention distinct incidents (naval blockade and Strait closure) that occur on the same day, suggesting they are related events rather than the same specific occurrence.”
Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 28% hedged 5 of 18 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses Trump's statements about the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B reports on oil flow data during a specific 60-day window covered by the US-Iran MoU”
The Independent World
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 7 of 35 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles cover different topics: one reports on statements about traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while the other reports on military casualties and conflict between Iran and the US.”

Publisher

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 173 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
SignalValueWeight
Correction rate 0.000 0.4
Uncertainty density 0.070 0.25
Assertive mismatch rate 0.000 0.35
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

No reporter is named on this article.

Topics

Iran Iranian Oman Omani Tehran

Subjects

Iranian NORP · 8× Iran GPE · 6× Omani NORP · 6× Kpler ORG · 3× Oman GPE · 3× Tehran GPE · 3× Hormuz GPE · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Trump PERSON · 1× United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Hence, several vessels are turning off their transponders to strip away the digital identifiers that military forces use to target them. “Switching off transponders can reduce the visibility of a vessel’s precise location and movements, although it also creates concerns about maritime safety and transparency,” Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-20
🔮 United States President Donald Trump has insisted that his military remains in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and suggested this past week that the US might even seek to take charge of the territory.
2026-08-20 · Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
Are Hormuz ships more willing to defy Iran or the US? What the data shows · assertive framing

Claims (65 extracted, 7 hedged)

United States President Donald Trump has insisted that his military remains in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and suggested this past week that the US might even seek to take charge of the territory. uncertain
US → insist → territory
On Tuesday, he also claimed that the strait was open for vessels to pass through, despite Iranian insistence that the waterway was closed for all ships that don’t seek Tehran’s approval before transit, and even though the US itself has a naval blockade in place targeting all Iran-linked ships. asserted
US → claim → ships
At the same time, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally that sits across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran – the waterway lies in the maritime territories of Iran and Oman – in an apparent bid to dissuade Muscat from striking any deal with Tehran to jointly manage the strait. asserted
waterway → threaten → strait
Amid the claims and counterclaims from both sides, actual data on the traffic passing through the waterway offers vital clues. uncertain
data → pass → clues
We break it down. asserted
We → break → it
Before the war started, the Strait of Hormuz was largely considered a single waterway, without distinctions between “Iranian” or “Omani” routes, and ships entered and exited along well‑established traffic separation schemes, mostly along the central part of the strait. asserted
ships → start → strait
Decisions on how ships navigated the strait were determined by port calls, charter terms and safety rather than fear of military consequences. asserted
ships → navigate → consequences
Since the war has spiked tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway has been fractured into two main routes. asserted
waterway → spike → routes
Tehran insists on the northern, Iranian route, hugging Iran’s coast near Larak Island and Qeshm Island, and feeding directly into Iranian ports and offshore terminals. asserted
Tehran → insist → ports
This is the route that Washington insists on, and is the one used by commercial carriers under US Naval protection. asserted
Washington → insist → protection
What routes do ships carrying oil and gas use? asserted
ships → carry → oil
Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler shows that 112 vessels carrying crude, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz – either entering the Gulf or leaving it – between August 1 and August 19. asserted
vessels → show → August
Of those tankers and carriers, 21 openly used the Iranian route and only two formally used the Omani route. asserted
two → use → route
The remaining 89 vessels, which make up more than 80 percent of the total oil and gas traffic through the strait in this period, went along dark or otherwise unclassified routes. asserted
which → remain → routes
This happens when a vessel’s movements cannot be fully tracked or clearly linked to a declared route because the vessel either turns off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder or the AIS data does not neatly fit into Kpler’s defined Iranian or Omani corridors. asserted
data → happen → corridors
Hence, it is not clear which route these vessels took. asserted
vessels → take → route
“While these transits can be observed once vessels reappear after crossing, the nature of dark routing makes it highly difficult to determine what proportion may also have used the Omani route or to confirm their precise routing from the available data,” Mohamed Rafik Halitim, a customer success manager for maritime and commodities at Kpler, told Al Jazeera. uncertain
Halitim → observe → Jazeera
Kpler’s data shows that 236 ships in all transited through Hormuz between August 1 and August 19. asserted
ships → show → August
This includes not just oil and gas vessels, but others carrying dry cargo and chemicals. asserted
This → include → cargo
Of these ships, 83 openly used the Iranian route, only three publicly used the Omani route and two used the old pre-war route that ran through the centre of the strait. asserted
that → use → strait
But the bulk of the ships, 148 of them, again went dark or used unknown routes while transiting through the strait. asserted
bulk → go → strait
That’s more than six out of 10 ships that passed through Hormuz in this period. asserted
that → ’ → period
By comparison, 35 percent of vessels openly used the Iranian route, and only a handful used the Omani or pre-war route publicly. asserted
handful → use → route
Why are so many vessels switching off their transponders? asserted
vessels → switch → transponders
Since the beginning of the war, both Iran and the US have not only threatened, but have actually bombed vessels that they each claim are violating their routes or rules for maritime navigation through the waterway. uncertain
they → threaten → waterway
Hence, several vessels are turning off their transponders to strip away the digital identifiers that military forces use to target them. “Switching off transponders can reduce the visibility of a vessel’s precise location and movements, although it also creates concerns about maritime safety and transparency,” Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. asserted
Quilliam → turn → Jazeera
“Some operators believe the commercial and security benefits outweigh those risks under current conditions.” asserted
benefits → believe → conditions
On August 8, the United Arab Emirates accused Iran of attacking a tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) with a missile as it tried to pass through the strait. asserted
it → accuse → strait
In a statement, ADNOC said that since the beginning of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the strait, killing one crew member and injuring 20. asserted
15 → say → 20
The ADNOC statement did not blame either side. asserted
statement → blame → side
Last month, the US fired on an oil tanker traversing through the strait towards Iran’s Kharg Island. asserted
US → fire → Island
The US said it fired Hellfire missiles at the ship after it ignored several warnings. asserted
it → say → warnings
On August 11, the US said a Navy helicopter also fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova cargo vessel, adding that the ship was attempting to break its blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman, which connects directly to the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
which → say → Hormuz
Another reason to switch off transponders is to conduct ship-to-ship cargo transfers, mid-route, without being seen, experts say. asserted
experts → switch → transfers
“According to sources and data over the past two weeks, some Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have sent out some shipments through the Omani route by turning off their vessel tracking and by doing ship-to-ship transfers,” energy policy researcher and consultant Marc Ayoub told Al Jazeera. uncertain
Ayoub → accord → Jazeera
In essence, a ship that wants to avoid the threat of Iranian missiles would travel through the Omani route with its transponder off, but then passes its cargo over to a ship outside the strait, which then ferries it to its final destination. asserted
which → want → destination
The original “dark” ship then returns to its port of origin undetected. asserted
ship → return → origin
Ayoub added that a number of Iranian vessels are also transiting through the Omani route – often including ship-to-ship transfers – to avoid sanctions against Iran and the US blockade. asserted
number → add → Iran
“They send their shipment to Oman through the Omani route, they change the documents of those shipments so that they appear as if they are exported by Oman, and then they send it to the oil market.” asserted
they → send → market
Are ships more scared of defying Iran or the US? asserted
ships → defy → Iran
…and 25 more, not listed.
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