More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds
uncertain
research → trade → secrets
WASHINGTON, Aug 20 - More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday.
uncertain
market → trade → Thursday
The analysis by the nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective, first reported by Reuters, sheds new light on likely military insider trading on the prediction market and the broader risks such activity may pose.
uncertain
activity → report → market
It comes as policymakers increase scrutiny of the booming industry following bets ahead of U.S. military actions, including that of a U.S. soldier charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal in January of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, which lawmakers have said could hurt national security.
uncertain
lawmakers → come → security
Spokespeople for Polymarket, which was founded in 2020, did not respond to requests for comment.
asserted
which → found → comment
Polymarket says it has strict controls, closely monitors for suspicious activity and has referred dozens of trader wallets to the authorities, including the Maduro case.
asserted
it → say → case
Polymarket's international platform settles trades on a blockchain, meaning wagers are public, although traders remain anonymous.
asserted
traders → settle → blockchain
ACDC analyzed all settled markets through May 5 to identify "long-shot" bets, which it defines as wagers of at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less on an outcome with odds of 35% or less.
uncertain
it → analyze → %
Within that universe, ACDC found 556 wallets it dubbed "Orcas," a nod to the killer whale's precise and selective hunting tactics.
asserted
it → find → tactics
These traders typically opened an account and quickly placed a highly successful long-shot bet in niche markets where insiders may have an informational edge, before in many cases cashing out and disappearing.
uncertain
insiders → open → cases
Of those, there were 152 exceptionally successful wallets that bet on military and defense markets, making $8 million collectively, with an average win rate of 97.2%.
asserted
that → be → %
Orca traits may have other explanations, including pure luck, ACDC said.
uncertain
ACDC → have → luck
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the soldier who prosecutors say made $400,000 betting on Maduro's ouster, built his position more slowly and is therefore not among the 152 military Orcas identified.
asserted
prosecutors → say → Orcas
Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
asserted
Dyke → plead → ?
Still, those wallets are the most likely to be trading on military secrets, according to the report.
uncertain
wallets → trade → report
While some of those 152 wallets have previously been flagged by other researchers and the media, ACDC says it has discovered dozens more previously unreported wallets.
asserted
it → flag → wallets
The Department of Defense does not comment on intelligence‑related matters or the findings of third-party research, a spokesperson said.
asserted
spokesperson → comment → research
COPYCATS MAY AMPLIFY INSIDER SIGNALS
uncertain
COPYCATS → amplify → SIGNALS
Profiting from confidential government information is generally illegal, but of greater concern is evidence that military Orca trades appear to attract copycat bets from deep-pocketed "Whales" and automated trading bots, ACDC said.
asserted
ACDC → profit → Whales
Although copycat trading itself is legal and has previously been documented on prediction markets, ACDC found signs that it may amplify Orca signals and broadcast them more widely.
uncertain
it → document → them
When an Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before the June 2025 strikes, for example, a Bot and a Whale made copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000, respectively.
asserted
Bot → bet → 200,000
Similar Orca bets before February U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Tehran also appeared to spark a flurry of first-time long-shot bets by Bots and Whales wagering on the same outcome, the research found.
asserted
research → appear → outcome
"Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket.
asserted
activity → underestimate → Polymarket
It's all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades," ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said.
asserted
Szakonyi → see → trades
"It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets."
asserted
agencies → think → markets
Polymarket has said its public ledger allows for greater scrutiny.
asserted
ledger → say → scrutiny
A spokesperson for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is pushing for jurisdiction over prediction markets, did not comment on the findings.
asserted
which → push → findings
The regulator has said that it will strictly police misconduct in the space, and has brought charges in at least three cases so far.
asserted
it → say → cases
ACDC comprises academics and investigators with expertise in illicit finance and aims to push anti-corruption reforms.
asserted
ACDC → comprise → reforms
The group argues that all traders should be required to prove their identity, and payouts on suspicious trades be withheld pending investigation.
asserted
payouts → argue → investigation
But to truly mitigate insider-trading risks, markets in which the use of non-public information may be most actionable and profitable should be banned, it argues.
uncertain
it → mitigate → information
"Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations ... will not be enough," it said.
asserted
it → limit → investigations
The Aporia
