Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
11%
2 of 19 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
69/100
Daily Mail's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Labour's first Budget under Andy Burnham failed to meet a 'minimal test of credibility' and threatens to open up a £30billion black hole in the public finances, experts have warned.
asserted
experts → fail → finances
Analysis by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIESR) found that Chancellor John Healey kicked the challenge of bringing down borrowing 'into the long grass'.
asserted
Healey → find → grass
It said that the government's 'hesitancy' in doing so risked making Britain's outlook even more painful and that balancing the books in the years ahead will instead rely on good luck.
asserted
balancing → say → luck
NIESR director David Aikman said: 'A plan that is not believed adds to the premium the government pays to borrow.'
asserted
government → say → premium
He said that while there were a record 98 measures announced in the Budget, the government 'didn't tackle the two big problems' of borrowing and the £3 trillion debt mountain.
asserted
government → say → borrowing
Mr Healey in theory met targets to bring down borrowing over coming years, with £15 billion to spare.
asserted
Healey → meet → billion
Andy Burnham and John Healey's Budget lack credibility, NIESR experts said
And even achieving that thinner buffer was based on assumptions that Labour will impose painful 'austerity' type spending cuts on some departments in the years ahead.
NIESR suggested that it was likely to backslide on these plans in next year's spending review, resulting in the headroom being wiped out and the targets being missed by £30 billion.
uncertain
targets → lack → billion
It also noted that while soaring debt levels are expected to peak in a couple of years' time before coming down, they are still forecast to be higher than they are now in 2031/32.
asserted
they → note → 2031/32
'The minimal test of credibility for the Chancellor at this Budget was whether he was willing to take modest steps to stabilise the debt to GDP ratio,' the NIESR report said.
asserted
report → take → ratio
'Based on the forecast paths laid out by the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility]… we can see that this minimal test of credibility was not met.'
asserted
test → base → credibility
With the government set to spend a staggering £144 billion in the current fiscal year alone on the debt interest bill, even 'modest' spending restraint could have boosted the government's credibility on financial markets – shaving up to £2 billion a year off the cost of borrowing, NIESR said.
uncertain
NIESR → set → borrowing
'This opportunity was not seized, with difficult decisions on tax and spending postponed instead.
'
asserted
decisions → seize → tax
NIESR deputy director Stephen Millard said: 'The Chancellor really pushed into the long grass the choices needed to bring the deficit down.'
The report said the public finance outlook 'depends heavily on spending restraint… raising doubt about its deliverability'.
asserted
outlook → say → deliverability
That is because rising inflation is eroding the real terms value of departmental budgets – leaving them £7 billion a year worse off unless they are topped up.
asserted
they → rise → budgets
On top of that, the government needs to find £11 billion to meet defence spending commitments.
asserted
government → need → commitments
NIESR argued that the spending review in 2027 would be a 'real test' and that the government should stick to its existing plans rather than topping them up to make up for rising inflation – which has been driven by a surge in oil and gas prices caused by the Iran war.
asserted
which → argue → war
'Higher energy prices make the UK poorer as a country, and government spending cannot offset that loss,' the report said.
asserted
report → make → loss
NIESR chief economist James Smith said: 'The government's plans lack credibility.'
Mr Smith said that while tax rises were not 'inevitable' to fill the financial hole, the scale of cuts implied otherwise 'starts to look like austerity level spending… that's the big choice there'.
Many critics say the government must bring down the welfare bill to make the sums add up.
asserted
sums → say → bill
Mr Smith said: 'The big debate is going to be on the welfare side.'
asserted
debate → say → side
The Aporia
