'Like gods reigning over humans': Many defectors see daughter of North Korea's Kim as heir apparent
SEOUL, South Korea —
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defectors → reign → heir
Until she fled North Korea three years ago, Kim Yumi felt deeply frustrated whenever state TV showed leader Kim Jong Un with his young daughter.
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TV → flee → daughter
The message, she felt, was clear and worrying: North Korea was laying the groundwork for an eventual hereditary transfer of power, this time to Kim's daughter.
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Korea → feel → daughter
Publicly questioning the Kim dynasty's hold on power would mean severe persecution.
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questioning → question → persecution
Already angered by draconian pandemic regulations that ruined her family's fishing business, she defected to South Korea by boat with her family.
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she → anger → family
"My husband and I didn't want our children to live under a fourth-generation dictatorship.
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children → want → dictatorship
As parents, we thought the best thing we could do for our children was to give them freedom," said Kim Yumi, 32, who now lives in Seoul.
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who → think → Seoul
North Korea allows no dissent and harshly punishes attempts to flee the country.
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Korea → allow → country
Established in 1948, the nation is nominally a socialist republic, but in reality it is an authoritarian dynasty, with three generations of the Kim family ruling in succession.
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generations → establish → succession
This time, North Korea is apparently trying something radical.
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Korea → try → something
Kim Jong Un's repeated public appearances with his daughter over the past four years have led to speculation that she's being groomed as her father's heir.
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she → repeat → heir
The question of who will become North Korea's next leader is crucial because that person will face a huge challenge — governing an impoverished, nuclear-armed nation whose 26 million people have little political freedom and live under strict state surveillance while being cut off from much of the outside world.
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people → become → world
North Koreans have no say in the selection of their future leader, and analysts and defectors say they will passively accept a third dynastic succession — at least publicly.
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they → have → succession
To gauge North Koreans' private views, The Associated Press spoke with nearly a dozen defectors who still have contacts in North Korea or witnessed the country's previous power successions, as well as several experts.
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who → gauge → successions
Most defectors believe the girl is Kim's heir
Not much is known about Kim's daughter except that she's reportedly about 13 and named Kim Ju Ae.
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she → believe → daughter
Since late 2022, she has made dozens of public appearances, all of them with her father at big events like weapons tests and military parades.
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all → make → tests
State media has called her Kim's "most beloved" and "respected" child.
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media → call → child
Her status has been emphasized by images showing an elderly general kneeling before her and her standing in front of her father.
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her → emphasize → father
South Korea's spy agency says she is Kim's likely heir.
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she → say → ?
Eight of the 11 defectors interviewed by the AP shared that view; the others disagreed, citing the North's deeply patriarchal culture.
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others → interview → culture
"During her visits to missile launch sites and factories, the way senior North Korean officials treat Kim Ju Ae involves protocols reserved for a successor, not the ones simply for a daughter of Kim Jong Un," said Tae Yongho, a former minister at North Korea's Embassy in London who defected to South Korea in 2016.
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who → treat → 2016
"They are repeating the same protocol and treatment they provided for Kim Jong Un," when he accompanied his father as his heir.
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he → repeat → heir
Kang Mi-Jin, a defector who runs a company analyzing North Korea's economy, said her contacts inside the North told her over smuggled phones that they think Kim Ju Ae is in line to succeed her father.
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Ae → run → father
Jung Gwang-il, a defector who specializes in smuggling outside information to North Korea, said the North Koreans he meets as they visit Chinese border towns also hold the same belief.
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they → specialize → belief
Former NBA star Dennis Rodman was the first to reveal her identity, holding her as a baby during a 2013 trip to Pyongyang.
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Rodman → reveal → Pyongyang
Doubts remain about a woman becoming North Korea's leader
Much of the skepticism about Kim Ju Ae as a potential leader stems from her being female.
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her → remain → leader
South Korean officials believe she has a younger sibling whose gender hasn't been confirmed.
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gender → believe → sibling
Only one of 17 department directors for the ruling Workers' Party is a woman.
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directors → rule → Party
That woman is Kim Jong Un's influential younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, according to South Korea's Unification Ministry.
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woman → accord → Ministry
"My contacts in North Korea say it would be nonsensical to revere that little girl as their supreme leader," said Kim Jeong-Ah, a former North Korean army officer who resettled in South Korea in 2009.
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who → say → 2009
Lee Si-young, a defector who heads the Seoul-based Free North Korea Radio station, said that some of her older contacts in North Korea aren't happy with a woman taking power.
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woman → head → power
But she said members of the Kim family "are like gods reigning over humans so gender really doesn't matter."
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gender → say → humans
Kim's push for hereditary power transfer faces little resistance at home
Whether or not the girl succeeds her father, observers agree that Kim Jong Un, 42, is likely to designate one of his children to prolong his family's rule, a move they expect would face little resistance at home.
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they → face → home
South Korea's spy agency recently assessed that Kim is extremely obese and at high risk of cardiovascular disease but shows no other signs of poor health.
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Kim → assess → health
North Koreans will passively "accept a hereditary succession as something that they should go along with," said Ahn Chan-il, a defector and scholar who heads the World Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul.
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who → accept → Seoul
During North Korea's first leadership transition, in 1994, the new leader, Kim Jong Il, then 52, had already spent two decades as the official successor working alongside his father to run the country.
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leader → spend → country
Kim Jong Un, who was then 27, was seen by outsiders as too young and inexperienced.
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who → see → outsiders
He quickly consolidated his grip on power, however, by orchestrating high-profile executions and purges, including the 2013 killing of his powerful uncle Jang Song Thaek.
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He → consolidate → uncle
"A hereditary power succession system has been institutionalized in North Korea, just like presidential elections in our system," said Oh Gyeong-seob, an analyst at Seoul's Korea Institute for National Unification.
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seob → institutionalize → Unification
"North Korea's ruling elite accepts it as a matter of course.
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elite → rule → course
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
