- Published
Autumn can be a busy time for those of us who keep a close eye on politics, as councils across the country start setting out their financial plans for the year ahead.
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councils → publish → year
Council tax is set every year by local authorities to raise money for things like rubbish collection, street lighting, parks and libraries.
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tax → set → collection
I have covered local councils and their budgets for more than a decade, and over that time it has become almost expected that our bills will rise by 4.99% each year - with 2% of that protected for adult social care.
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% → cover → care
Any increase higher than this requires a referendum or special government approval.
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increase → require → referendum
That is what happened in Bradford in 2025, when council tax bills rose by almost 10% to help deal with the impact of cuts from the government, debt and demand for services.
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bills → happen → services
As central funding has reduced, many Labour-led authorities have argued they have been left with no other option to produce a balanced budget (a legal requirement).
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they → reduce → budget
But in September, Calderdale Council's new Reform UK leader Dan Sutherland told me he would "absolutely commit" to not putting up council tax by the full amount permitted next year.
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he → tell → amount
So how could he do it - and at what price for the council and its services?
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he → do → council
Reform has run Calderdale Council since May.
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Reform → run → May
During the election campaign, one of the key promises the party made was not to increase council tax by "as much as other parties", and that it would look at cutting "excessive waste" instead.
But a new report produced for senior councillors acknowledges the authority continues to face significant financial challenges, with rising costs in children's and adult social care and special educational needs.
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authority → make → care
The report estimates an £18.7m gap between spend and available funding by 2030, "unless the council is successful in reducing current levels of expenditure".
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council → estimate → expenditure
The report has set out several options for council tax in Calderdale over the coming years - starting with the period between April 2027 and 2028.
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report → set → April
The figures below are for a band D household, as that is the standard benchmark used when discussing council tax.
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that → use → tax
And to be clear, all of these will mean bigger bills.
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all → mean → bills
If council tax rose by 4.99% next year:
A band D household would pay £2,136 over the year.
The total amount collected would be around £142m.
If it increased by 4.49%:
Band D households would pay £2,126.
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households → rise → 2,126
This is a reduction of £10 across the year, compared with the maximum increase.
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This → compare → increase
The total amount collected would be lower - meaning the council would have to find around £658,000 to balance the books.
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council → collect → books
The final option outlined would be an increase of 3.99%:
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option → outline → %
Over the year, this equates to £21 less than if council tax rose by the maximum.
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tax → equate → maximum
The total amount collected would be lower still - the council would have to find around £1.3m to balance the budget.
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council → collect → budget
"The future does not look rosy, and of course, demands for spending continue to rise," Prof Tony Travers from the London School of Economics tells me.
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Travers → look → me
Travers, who is an expert on local government, says things had been "getting better" for councils at the end of the Conservative government.
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things → say → government
He thinks it is possible for councils to keep council tax below the 4.99%, but warns: "There's a big trade-off between the services people want and the desire to keep council tax low, which has been a big Reform selling point."
But Travers says the government assumes in its Local Government Settlement that councils will put up their council tax by the full amount.
And he believes things will get tougher for local authorities by the end of the decade.
"
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things → think → decade
If you miss a year, or more than a year, putting it up by the maximum, the base will then be held down for every future year."
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base → miss → year
'Working smarter'
If Calderdale does go ahead with a lower increase, it will not be alone.
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it → work → increase
If we look to other Reform-led councils elsewhere in the country, Nottinghamshire County Council raised their council tax by 3.99% this year, and said it did it by making efficiencies such as cutting the use of agency staff.
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it → look → staff
Lancashire County Council, which is also Reform-controlled, put up council tax by 3.8%.
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which → control → %
Its leader, Stephen Atkinson, said it was the lowest rise in 12 years and savings would be generated by the use of AI, "working smarter" and getting "more productivity out of the existing team, to give them more time to think and do things better".
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savings → say → things
Durham County Council also kept its rise below the 4.99% - it put it up by 3.1%.
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it → keep → %
As it stands, no decision has yet been made for Calderdale - or any other part of West Yorkshire.
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decision → stand → Yorkshire
The authority's new budget will be set at the annual budget council meeting on Monday 1 March.
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budget → set → Monday
The Aporia
