Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has lifted its self-imposed 2,000km (1,250-mile) limit on the range of its ballistic missiles, raising questions over whether Tehran now considers hitting targets beyond the Middle East.
asserted
Tehran → say → East
“This limitation has been lifted for us,” IRGC spokesman Brigadier-General Hossein Mohebbi announced at a news conference in Tehran on Saturday.
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Mohebbi → lift → Saturday
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PM → meet → cyberattack
Mohebbi did not say whether Iran already had missiles that exceed the cap, but added that Iran would show its capabilities through action rather than statements, as Tehran has hardened its position and shifted towards an “offensive” military doctrine.
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Tehran → say → doctrine
The announcement came days after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that “any kind and level of threat” from the United States or Israel would be met with a response unlimited by geography.
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kind → come → geography
Mojtaba has said Iran needs to end the “no war, no peace” situation amid the volatile status of the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade on the Iranian ports.
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Iran → say → ports
It also comes as the diplomatic push to end the US-Israel war on Iran has intensified, with Trump on Monday saying there is “positive momentum” towards ending the military hostilities after talks with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani in Washington, DC.
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Trump → come → Washington
So what does lifting the limit actually change, and why is Iran doing it now?
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Iran → lift → it
Where could Iran’s missiles reach?
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missiles → reach → ?
Iran already has operational capabilities to launch missiles beyond 2,000km, but it has kept a cap on them amid focus on regional deterrence.
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it → have → deterrence
Iranian missiles can reach the entire Arabian Peninsula, the Levant and most of Egypt, as well as parts of Southeastern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia.
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missiles → reach → Greece
For Gulf states, the announcement changes little.
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announcement → change → little
They already sit well within Iran’s 2,000km range and have come under repeated Iranian missile fire since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28.
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US → sit → February
The change can help Iran to position some of its rocket launchers in the country’s east, from where it would require a bigger range to reach Israel.
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it → help → Israel
The US and its European allies fear Iran can target US bases in the Indian Ocean and Europe.
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Iran → fear → Ocean
In March, the United Kingdom accused Iran of firing missiles towards the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia, some 4,000km (about 2,500 miles) from Iran.
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Kingdom → accuse → Iran
Tehran denied targeting the base located in the Indian Ocean, saying it was “an Israeli false flag” operation.
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it → deny → Ocean
In 2019, the UK, France and Germany said their modelling put a lighter-warhead version of Iran’s Khorramshahr missile at a range of approximately 3,000km (about 1,900 miles).
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modelling → say → km
US officials have also said technology from Iran’s space programme could be repurposed to build intercontinental ballistic missiles, The Associated Press news agency reported.
uncertain
agency → say → missiles
Iran currently does not have intercontinental ballistic missiles in its arsenal.
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Iran → have → arsenal
Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor of international politics and security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that the Diego Garcia launch had already made Iran’s point.
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launch → tell → point
“Iran denied doing that, but they
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Iran → deny → that
wanted to signal that they have the capacity.
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they → want → capacity
So yes, they do have the capacity,” he said.
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he → have → capacity
Seloom, who is also an honorary research fellow at the University of Exeter, pointed to Iran’s space launches over the past decade, saying the same rockets could in theory reach anywhere in the world.
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rockets → point → world
“How effective, that’s a totally different story,” he said, adding that Iran could probably field missiles with a range of about 5,000km (3,100 miles).
uncertain
Iran → ’ → km
Iranian security analyst Mohamed Taheri made a similar case on Iran’s state-run Channel 3, saying range had stopped being a technical obstacle for Iran by the mid-2010s.
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range → make → mid-2010s
“Even now we have no technical limitation in reaching ranges above 2,000km,” he said.
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he → have → km
“If we were to increase that range to 4,000km, we would certainly have most of Europe within our missile range, and roughly most of North Africa as well,” Taheri said.
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Taheri → increase → Africa
How has Europe responded to Iran’s missile threat?
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Europe → respond → threat
The IRGC announcement about ending its self-imposed limit seems to be a shift from Tehran’s assurances to Europe on missile range.
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announcement → end → range
Europe’s relations with Iran have deteriorated over its nuclear programme and regional geopolitical ambitions.
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relations → deteriorate → programme
The European Union’s designation of the IRGC as a “terrorist” group and its allowing the US to use bases on the continent have attracted Iran’s ire.
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US → allow → ire
Iran warned Bulgaria repeatedly this year over US aircraft on its soil.
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Iran → warn → soil
In April, Tehran sent a diplomatic note cautioning Bulgaria against letting US military aircraft use its airports for operations against Iran.
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aircraft → send → Iran
When Bulgaria’s parliament approved hosting up to eight US KC-135 refuelling tankers at Bezmer airbase in July, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Bulgarian decision-makers “must bear responsibility” for the move.
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makers → approve → move
In August, two Iranian insiders told the Financial Times that the US bases in countries such as Bulgaria had been assessed as possible targets, describing the threat to Europe as real but confined to the continent’s south and southeast.
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bases → tell → south
Two US tankers left Bezmer on August 21.
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tankers → leave → August
Last month, the UK spy chief said Iran is stepping up targeting of military bases in Europe.
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Iran → say → Europe
It came after UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the IRGC was “almost certainly” behind a suspected plot against Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford, an airbase used by US bombers to carry out strikes on Iran.
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IRGC → come → Iran
…and 41 more, not listed.
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