A pediatrician, a former professor, and a minister with a shoestring campaign are among the Democrats headed to Congress after defeating Republican candidates few expected to lose.
asserted
few → head → candidates
A TIME analysis of 10 pre-election forecasts found more than a dozen House races that Democrats won that every forecaster rated either as tilting, leaning, likely, or even safe Republican or as a toss-up.
asserted
forecaster → find → up
Some Democratic candidates had experience as mayors or state lawmakers, but many are political newcomers.
asserted
many → have → mayors
Several won despite significantly smaller campaign spending.
asserted
Several → win → spending
Many of the races mark the first time a Democrat has been elected in years.
asserted
Democrat → mark → years
In South Carolina, Annie Andrews will become the state’s first Democratic senator in more than two decades.
asserted
Andrews → become → decades
Several more potential upsets remain in races that have yet to be called by the Associated Press as of early Tuesday, one week after Election Day.
asserted
that → remain → Day
In Mississippi, which all 10 forecasters rated Republican, Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
asserted
Colom → rat → Smith
If he wins, he would be the state’s first Democratic Senate winner since 1982 and its first Black senator since the Reconstruction era.
asserted
he → win → era
Colom posted on social media Monday that the “prognosticators” that had written off his and other races in traditionally deep-red parts of the country as solid Republican “made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.”
asserted
South → post → reason
He added: “They’re only a reflection of the past and mysteriously avoid any accountability when they’re wrong.”
asserted
they → add → accountability
The election forecasters TIME examined—Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model, Split Ticket, and The Economist—largely saw the blue wave coming.
asserted
wave → examine → WH
But none foresaw just how big it would be.
asserted
it → foresee → ?
J.D. Ford, a Democratic state senator in Indiana, will become Indiana’s first openly gay member of Congress.
asserted
Ford → become → Congress
He defeated Republican three-term Rep. Victoria Spartz in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in the 2024 presidential election.
asserted
Trump → defeat → election
Not a single forecaster rated the race even as a toss-up.
asserted
forecaster → rat → up
Ford is the first Democrat elected to the district since Jim Jontz in 1990, although its boundaries have changed substantially since then.
asserted
boundaries → elect → 1990
Ford raised nearly $800,000 less than his opponent, according to campaign disclosures through Oct. 14, although outside spending favored Ford.
uncertain
spending → raise → Ford
Around $4.2 million was spent to support him or attack Spartz, as compared to $1.3 million to support Spartz or attack Ford, according to Federal Election Commission filings through Nov. 6.
uncertain
million → spend → Nov.
Fred Wellman has become the first Democrat elected in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district since Joan Kelly Horn in 1990.
asserted
Wellman → become → 1990
The podcaster and Army veteran defeated seven-term incumbent Ann Wagner, a Republican, by more than 16,000 votes.
asserted
podcaster → defeat → votes
Inside Elections rated the race Solid Republican, while six other forecasters rated it tilt, lean, or likely Republican.
asserted
it → rat → race
Wellman’s campaign spent $1.9 million through Oct. 14, while Wagner’s spent $5.7 million—almost three times as much.
asserted
Wagner → spend → million
General election outside spending also favored Wagner, with $980,000 spent to support her or attack Wellman, while $387,000 was spent to support Wellman or attack Wagner.
asserted
387,000 → favor → Wagner
Cyril Jefferson, the youngest elected mayor of High Point and the city’s second Black mayor, beat incumbent Addison McDowell.
asserted
Jefferson → elect → McDowell
McDowell had won in 2024 without a Democratic nominee on the ballot after redistricting prompted Democrat Kathy Manning to retire.
asserted
redistricting → win → Manning
Jefferson’s campaign spent around $224,000 through mid-October, compared to McDowell’s campaign spending of $1.3 million—more than five times as much.
asserted
campaign → spend → million
Outside spending in support of Jefferson totalled just $211.
asserted
spending → total → 211
Jefferson told Axios that national groups repeatedly dismissed the district as “nowhere on our radar.”
asserted
groups → tell → radar
Of the 10 forecasters TIME analyzed, seven rated the race as safe or solid Republican, while the other three rated it as likely Republican—the strongest rating short of safe or solid.
asserted
three → analyze → rating
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) didn’t even name the race as one of its “Districts in Play.”
asserted
Committee → name → Play
Richard Ojeda II beat incumbent Richard Hudson, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is responsible for electing House Republicans.
asserted
which → beat → Republicans
Ojeda is a former West Virginia state senator and an Army veteran who served for 24 years, including 15 at Fort Bragg.
asserted
who → serve → Bragg
He previously unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Congress in West Virginia and mounted a short-lived 2020 presidential campaign.
asserted
He → run → campaign
Ojeda’s campaign reported spending $2.9 million, compared with Hudson’s $3.9 million, although outside groups spent more than $390,000 supporting Ojeda or opposing Hudson, compared with just $6,000 spent for Hudson.
asserted
groups → report → Hudson
Hudson is serving his seventh term in Congress since 2013.
asserted
Hudson → serve → 2013
Fox News rated the race as Solid Republican, while the other nine forecasters all rated it as likely Republican.
asserted
forecasters → rat → Republican
Paul Barringer, a lawyer, healthcare consultant, and tree farmer, defeated Republican first-term incumbent Brad Knott.
asserted
Barringer → defeat → Knott
Barringer has not previously held elected office.
asserted
Barringer → hold → office
A former Republican, he switched parties before running, and his campaign emphasized cooperation across party lines.
asserted
campaign → switch → lines
…and 65 more, not listed.
The Aporia
