Internal House and Senate party leadership elections are some of the most fascinating exercises to unfold on Capitol Hill.
asserted
elections → unfold → Hill
Both House and Senate Democrats and House and Senate Republicans will choose their leaders in the coming days.
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Democrats → choose → days
And the changes are going to be seismic.
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changes → go → ?
That’s what makes this process so intriguing.
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process → ’ → ?
However, there are only two rules in leadership elections: You can’t beat someone with no one.
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You → be → one
And — perhaps more importantly — it’s about the math.
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it → ’ → math
Republicans are up first with elections in both chambers starting Tuesday morning.
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Republicans → start → chambers
For Minority Leader, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is running against Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
asserted
Scalise → run → Jordan
Current House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is not seeking to stay in leadership once his party isn't in charge anymore.
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party → seek → charge
If Democrats have 260 seats, Republicans would have 175.
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Republicans → have → 175
All incoming House Republicans (including non-voting delegates from U.S. territories) are allowed to vote in conference.
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Republicans → include → conference
The selection of Minority Leader does NOT go before the entire House like Speaker.
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selection → go → Speaker
So, the winning candidate only needs a simple majority.
asserted
candidate → win → majority
Senate Republican leader John Thune, R-S.D., is running to keep his leadership position for the party in the new Congress.
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Thune → run → Congress
Meanwhile, Democrats will begin elections for their House leader on Wednesday where Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is expected to secure that nomination.
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Jeffries → begin → nomination
No internal Democrat Senate leadership election date has been set.
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date → set → ?
There are some progressives and Democratic Socialists of America-affiliated Democrats who will be House Members next year who want someone other than Minority Leader Jeffries keep his position.
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someone → be → position
Who do they want instead?
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they → want → Who
Well, no one has said.
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one → say → ?
Again, you can’t beat someone with no one.
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you → beat → one
And frankly, it’s hard to believe that Democrats would not elect the first Black Speaker of the House.
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Democrats → ’ → House
For the sake of argument, let’s say Democrats have 260 House seats in the new Congress.
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Democrats → let → Congress
First, Democrats must tap a nominee for Speaker in their Caucus.
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Democrats → tap → Caucus
That needs a simple majority.
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That → need → majority
So surely Jeffries will score at least 131 votes in a private ballot for Speaker.
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Jeffries → score → Speaker
Thus, the ENTIRE House votes for Speaker when it convenes the new Congress at noon on January 3.
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it → vote → January
If all Members cast ballots, Jeffries simply needs 218.
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Jeffries → cast → 218
Jeffries could lose 40 votes or so and still prevail.
uncertain
Jeffries → lose → votes
So that is not going to happen.
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that → go → ?
He might not even lose more than a couple votes, frankly.
uncertain
He → lose → votes
The Senate Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference work much the same way as the House.
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Caucus → work → House
A simple majority wins for Majority Leader in the Democratic Caucus and Minority Leader in the Republican Conference.
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majority → win → Conference
However, the selection of Senate Majority Leader is not a vote which plays out on the floor.
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which → play → floor
The concept of "Senate Majority Leader" has only been around since the early 20th Century and is not mentioned in the Constitution.
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concept → mention → Constitution
Remember what we said about the House Speaker being the head of this branch of government.
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Speaker → remember → government
It would be hard to envision a scenario where Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would not become Majority Leader after Democrats flipped the Senate in a beat down.
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Democrats → envision → beat
First, who else is running?
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who → run → ?
But he’s running for Majority Whip to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
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he → run → Durbin
One could see Democrats defaulting to Schatz if something happens with Schumer.
uncertain
something → see → Schumer
Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed, D-Mich., said he wants to look at his options and endorsed Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., for Majority Leader.
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he → say → Leader
…and 55 more, not listed.
The Aporia
