European leaders are set for their first stand-off with Donald Trump since American voters turned on the president in last week’s midterm rout for his MAGA movement.
asserted
voters → set → movement
Trump thinks he has a deal in the works with Russian President Vladimir Putin that could decide a ceasefire in Ukraine and a new security pact for Europe.
uncertain
that → think → Europe
But his grand talk is infuriating American allies who believe, with good reason, that any deal on Europe has to be made with Europeans in the room.
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deal → infuriate → room
And it is adding even more evidence to the argument that he is a patsy for Putin.
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he → add → Putin
The tensions are shaping a G7 meeting in Paris where foreign ministers from the biggest NATO allies are meeting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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ministers → shape → Rubio
Their message, so far, is that the only way to get a deal that lasts is to maintain pressure on Russia.
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that → get → Russia
Behind this message is the entirely rational concern that Trump will happily trade away Ukrainian territory and European security to sign a piece of paper with Putin that promises to end the war.
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that → trade → war
Trump has favoured Putin by halting financial aid to Ukraine, limiting the country’s access to Patriot air defence interceptors, pressuring Ukraine to stop hitting Russian energy targets and easing sanctions on Russian oil exports.
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Trump → favour → exports
The president’s latest comments on Ukraine, made in the aftermath of the midterm election defeat for the Republicans, only deepened the concern that he was a gift to the Kremlin.
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he → make → Kremlin
“It’s going to be very big,” Trump said of the looming deal.
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Trump → go → deal
“It’s going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe.
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it → go → Europe
It’s going to be a big, beautiful agreement and everyone’s going to be thrilled.”
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everyone → go → ?
Rather than dismiss this as standard Trumpian exaggeration, European leaders moved to make sure the Americans did not think they could decide “all of Europe” in talks with Moscow.
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they → dismiss → Moscow
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made a sharp, and entirely logical, case about the limits of American negotiating power.
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Sikorski → make → power
It is actually impossible,” he said.
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he → say → ?
Trump only deepened the concerns with his next remark.
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Trump → deepen → remark
Speaking on the 60 Minutes program on CBS on Sunday night, he said the deal was “very close” and hinted at what he had in mind for Ukraine.
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he → speak → Ukraine
“They’re going to end up with a little bit different shape Ukraine,” he said.
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he → go → shape
Trump has repeatedly aired the idea of changing Ukraine’s borders to end the war – basically, by formally granting Putin the territory he has seized by force since 2014.
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he → air → 2014
In some versions of the peace plan, Russia not only gains the Crimea (seized in 2014) and the territory it has occupied in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, but is also granted parts of the Donbas still occupied by the Ukrainian armed forces.
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it → gain → forces
The meeting of G7 foreign ministers in, held on Monday and Tuesday (Paris time), has given European leaders a forum to push back at Trump’s agenda in their talks with Rubio.
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meeting → hold → Rubio
The European Union is also represented.
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Union → represent → ?
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul sent a clear signal before arriving in Paris.
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Wadephul → send → Paris
“Europe must be part of the path to a solution,” he said of the war in Ukraine.
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he → say → Ukraine
“It is very clear that Europe doesn’t need a new security architecture, as Russia would have us believe, but simply the restoration of the existing security architecture.”
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us → need → architecture
The timing is highly sensitive because Trump has sent his two top envoys, Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, to the United Arab Emirates this week to meet negotiators from Russia and Ukraine.
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Trump → send → Russia
The talks in Abu Dhabi are the first between the three sides since February and are being held on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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talks → hold → Tuesday
Trump talked up the prospects for success, yet again, in remarks in the White House on Monday (US time), when he said there was a “very strong inclination” to get a deal in Abu Dhabi.
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he → talk → Dhabi
At the same time, an unnamed US official briefed several media outlets, including Reuters, about the prospects of territory being exchanged as part of a truce.
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official → brief → truce
The official said both Russia and Ukraine were showing some flexibility on this key issue.
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Russia → say → issue
According to Reuters, the official also told reporters that a security guarantee was up for discussion.
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guarantee → accord → discussion
This is meant to safeguard Ukraine and deter a future Russian attack, although it depends heavily on how binding it might be on western allies.
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it → mean → allies
Trump has never promised a guarantee that would be as strong as NATO, with its Article 5 provision on mutual defence for all members.
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that → promise → members
European leaders have made sure to send negotiators to Abu Dhabi.
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leaders → make → Dhabi
A senior NATO official is also going.
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official → go → ?
It will be in Ukraine’s interest to include the European officials.
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It → include → officials
It will be in Russia’s interest to shut them out.
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It → shut → them
Given that Witkoff described Putin as a “humanitarian” when they spoke in Saint Petersburg last month, who would expect the Trump envoys to stand up to the Russians?
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envoys → give → Russians
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is warning against the great powers carving up territory as they did at the Yalta summit during the Second World War.
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they → warn → War
“We don’t want to have Yalta Two.
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We → want → Yalta
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
