Before Tuesday, the last time Texas voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1988.
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voters → elect → 1988
Now, all three will be sending Democrats to the upper chamber, shattering decades of Republican dominance in the deep-red states.
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three → send → states
In the weeks leading up to Election Day, polling had indicated that voters were more likely to support Democrats over Republicans in this year’s midterms.
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voters → lead → midterms
But the polls ultimately underestimated the magnitude of the blue wave—what some have dubbed a “blue tsunami”—that swept over the country on Tuesday.
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some → underestimate → Tuesday
It’s typical for the sitting President’s party to lose seats in midterm elections.
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party → ’ → elections
The scope of Democrats’ victories this cycle stands out even in the context of that historical trend, though—while not all the races have been called yet, the party is expected to secure the largest majority in the U.S. House since it won 257 seats in the 2008 presidential election, and has flipped seven seats in the U.S. Senate so far.
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it → stand → Senate
Many political pundits have characterized this year’s midterm results as a “repudiation” of President Donald Trump.
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pundits → characterize → Trump
The President has a historically low approval rating, driven in large part by Americans’ dissatisfaction with how he has handled the economy and foreign affairs, particularly the war in Iran.
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he → have → Iran
Democrats’ wins went deeper than one-off races
James Talarico has emerged as a rising star of the Democratic Party in this election cycle.
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Talarico → go → cycle
Polls released ahead of Election Day indicated that the Democrat had a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate.
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Democrat → release → Senate
He ended up defeating Paxton by about 12 percentage points, breaking a nearly four-decade-long streak of the state sending a Republican to the upper chamber.
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state → end → chamber
In a stunning political upset, Gina Hinojosa unseated Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, who has held the office for more than a decade.
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who → unseat → decade
His loss came as a surprise to many political experts, who thought heading into Tuesday that the probability of Hinojosa emerging victorious in the race was relatively low, though polling suggested that this fight was more competitive than Abbott’s past re-election bids.
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fight → come → bids
And the blue wave swept over other state races too; Democrats won the majority in the Texas state House, bringing an end to more than two decades of Republican control in the chamber, as well as scoring victories in every statewide contest on the ballot this year and flipping multiple U.S. House seats to boot.
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Democrats → sweep → seats
Kirby Goidel, a professor of political science at Texas A&M University, says that all this suggests that Tuesday was not just a one-off.
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Tuesday → say → University
“It wasn’t limited to a single race, it wasn’t limited to a single office—it was across the board,” Goidel says.
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Goidel → limit → board
“I don’t think it’s just a blip because of the scope and the depth of the wins.”
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it → think → wins
And while Texas was the most dramatic example of Democrats’ success in a red state, others also saw races that were more competitive than many had anticipated.
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many → see → races
In South Carolina, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews’ victory over GOP Sen. Darline Graham “was the beacon,” says Shannon Bridgmon, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
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Bridgmon → say → Carolina
But Bridgmon says that there are other contests that are also notable in the state.
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that → say → state
In the race to represent South Carolina's 1st District in the U.S. House—to succeed GOP Rep. Nancy Mace—Democrat Nancy Lacore defeated her Republican opponent, Jenny Costa Honeycutt, by a 1.1-point-margin.
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Lacore → represent → margin
Another race, for the 2nd District, has not yet been called by The Associated Press, but is extremely tight, with the Republican incumbent ahead by 1% as of Sunday evening.
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incumbent → call → evening
In the state legislature, Democrats broke Republicans' supermajority in the South Carolina House.
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Democrats → break → House
“These numbers are much more competitive than people had expected,” Bridgmon says, though she acknowledges, “I’m not going to say South Carolina is on the level of Texas right now because they really just blew the top off in every way.”
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they → expect → way
Democrat and megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas for a seat in the upper chamber.
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Hamilton → defeat → chamber
And, like in South Carolina, Democrats also had some success in the Kansas state House, shattering the Republican supermajority, which has dominated the state legislature for 16 years, says Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor and department chair of political science at Wichita State University.
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Middlewood → have → University
She adds that even with some statewide races that Republicans won, “Democrats still did significantly better in those races than they have in the past.”
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they → add → past
“Now, that is to say, there are still three members of the [U.S] House that are Republican from Kansas.
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that → say → Kansas
All three of those incumbents maintained their seats.
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three → maintain → seats
[Republicans] are still obviously a majority in the Kansas House,” Middlewood says.
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Middlewood → say → House
“But the fact that Democrats were able to mobilize such significant shifts to the left is a really big deal.”
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Democrats → mobilize → left
Political scientists attribute much of Democrats’ success in many of these races to a “perfect storm” of issues that coalesced in this year’s election cycle.
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that → attribute → cycle
Much of it, they say, is because of anger at the Republican Party and Trump over the Administration’s handling of the economy and affordability issues, as well as the Iran war and his immigration crackdown.
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they → say → issues
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, says that, in addition to frustration with national Republican leaders, the specific candidates on the ballot likely also played a role in some of these races.
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candidates → say → races
Paxton, for instance, was widely viewed as a weak candidate for Republicans in the Texas Senate race; his campaign was bogged down by past controversies, including infidelity allegations and an impeachment trial (he was ultimately acquitted of all the charges he was facing), among others.
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he → view → others
In South Carolina, for instance, Bridgmon says that the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death fundamentally changed the Senate race.
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death → say → race
Before his unexpected death in July, the late Senator was widely expected to be re-elected in this year’s midterms.
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Senator → expect → midterms
At the same time, there are long-term dynamics that have been brewing in many of these states that played into what happened on Election Day, according to Panagopoulos.
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what → be → Panagopoulos
For instance, “the South has experienced tremendous population growth” in recent years, he says, which in turn has led to many of those states becoming more diverse and is having “ripple effects” on their elections.
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many → experience → elections
Goidel says that “there were lots of pieces that were falling into place” this year.
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that → say → place
…and 36 more, not listed.
The Aporia
