Burnham should be praised for his longer-term thinking, but how much use is a 10-year plan with only 2½ years to execute it, asks Eliot Wilson
From the time of his election as Leader of the Labour Party, Andy Burnham has shown himself comfortable in thinking about public policy in broad terms and over a long time frame.
asserted
himself → praise → frame
When he accepted the leadership, he referred to “four decades of the neoliberalism that began in the 1980s”; as a lifelong politician, unlike his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, he can reach back to his teens to place himself in the Labour tribe.
asserted
he → accept → tribe
When he made his first speech as Prime Minister in July, outside 10 Downing Street, it reflected this sense of the longue durée, a desire to think strategically rather than a Starmerite desperation to reach the weekend unscathed: “Later this year, I will bring forward a new plan for Britain, a 10-year plan, laying out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be, wherever we’re coming from, whatever party we support.”
asserted
we → make → party
It reeked, of course, of the genially authoritarian assumption that there is a place “we all want Britain to be”, a certainty that his vision is so universal and benevolent that it must be the ambition of every voter.
asserted
it → reek → voter
The Prime Minister might want to reflect on whether “we all” want the United Kingdom to be a member of the European Union, for example.
uncertain
Kingdom → want → example
Still, politicians are often criticised for short-termism, so there is something refreshing about a leader crafting a “10-year plan”, even if it does invoke the language of tractor production and grain harvests.
asserted
it → criticise → production
A 10-year plan already delayed
Last week, however, talking to The New Statesman, Burnham admitted the plan was behind schedule: “We may go into the new year, to be honest …
uncertain
We → delay → year
December or January, I think we will need to leave that open.”
asserted
we → think → that
You might question why a 10-year plan could take six months merely to draft, and roll your eyes at Burnham’s casual “we will need to leave that open”.
uncertain
we → question → that
Just as Starmer’s administration seemed incapable of producing any major policy document on time – the Industrial Strategy, the National Security Strategy, the Defence Investment Plan – so too the Burnham government seems to have staked out a position for long-term residence on the back foot.
asserted
government → seem → foot
Let us assume, for the purposes of argument, that it is published at the very beginning of 2027.
asserted
it → let → 2027
The next general election must be held on or before 15 August 2029.
asserted
election → hold → August
So what Burnham will be offering is not so much a 10-year plan as a 2½-year plan with IOUs.
asserted
offering → offer → IOUs
It is a constitutional maxim that Parliament cannot bind its successors: no law can be made which is irrevocable.
asserted
which → bind → successors
One of the elements of parliamentary sovereignty is that parliament may do as it wishes – it could legislate tomorrow to say that fair is foul, and foul is fair – but the next parliament could enshrine the opposite in statute.
uncertain
parliament → do → statute
Burnham’s boldness should be praised
asserted
boldness → praise → ?
It would be absurdly restrictive to say that no politician could talk about his or her intentions or objectives beyond the last theoretical date for the next general election.
uncertain
politician → say → election
But anything after that is contingent, and when three-quarters of Burnham’s 10-year plan could fall within that category of contingency, it prompts questions about the usefulness of the whole affair.
uncertain
it → fall → affair
It is not as if Burnham lacks ambition.
asserted
Burnham → lack → ambition
Like Sir Keir Starmer, he wants to “rewire” the British state.
asserted
he → want → state
He promised to “make this moment a circuit breaker for Britain, bringing forward the biggest changes in the last 40 years” and spoke of “a new political model and a new economic model”.
asserted
moment → promise → model
This includes “put[ting] life’s essentials back under stronger public control to make them affordable”, which seems to be a slightly milquetoast formulation for “nationalisation”, and “re-industrialising Britain, using public procurement to back British industry”.
asserted
which → include → industry
These are major changes in policy and, while they may horrify anyone with any attachment to free markets and the dynamism and innovation of the private sector, voters are entitled to know more about the government’s plans.
uncertain
voters → horrify → plans
With so much of its strategy likely to be in effect a promissory note, and facing an electorate which now no longer just suspects but assumes that politicians are lying, the government runs the risk of its plan echoing St Augustine’s plea for chastity: re-industralise me, o Lord, but not yet.
asserted
government → face → me
How a 10-year plan could work
uncertain
plan → work → ?
One of (at least) two courses of action could have ameliorated this problem.
uncertain
One → ameliorate → problem
The first would have been an early general election: there is absolutely no constitutional requirement for a new prime minister to go to the polls immediately, there is no personal mandate, and in post-War history only Sir Anthony Eden in 1955 and Boris Johnson in 2019 have done so.
asserted
Eden → be → 2019
But the option was there, if Burnham had wanted a sense of public endorsement for a change of direction.
asserted
Burnham → want → direction
He seems to have chosen not to, and choices have consequences.
asserted
choices → seem → consequences
The alternative would have been producing perhaps a shorter, higher level document in a much shorter timeframe.
asserted
alternative → produce → timeframe
Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July; if some kind of plan or mission statement had been ready for Parliament returning from the summer adjournment on 1 September, that could have bought him some breathing space and a sense of engagement.
uncertain
that → become → engagement
It would not have given him much time to prepare, but no-one imagines he had not considered the premiership for some time before.
asserted
he → give → time
The American Declaration of Independence was drafted over about 17 days, while the modern Constitution of Japan took nine.
asserted
Constitution → draft → nine
Burnham’s leisurely amble towards a 10-year plan risks making a potentially pointless document misleading or malign.
asserted
document → risk → plan
It is good that politicians think over the longer term to produce more coherent policy, but that should not expand the thinking time in proportion.
asserted
that → think → proportion
Across the board, the government needs to speed up.
asserted
government → need → board
He is a senior fellow for national security at the Coalition for Global Prosperity and a contributing editor at Defence on the Brink
asserted
He → contribute → Brink
The Aporia
