Since 1990, Ontario has posted a deficit in roughly 85 percent of fiscal years.
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Ontario → post → years
Revenues over that period grew about 4.5 percent annually; spending grew 4.4 percent.
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spending → grow → percent
On those numbers alone, the books should have balanced.
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books → balance → numbers
Instead, the province has accumulated close to $250 billion in deficits, and its net debt has climbed from $38.4 billion to a projected $521 billion by 2027/28—an increase of nearly $483 billion.
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debt → accumulate → billion
As Hub contributor Livio Di Matteo laid out this week in four charts, the fall economic statement Queen’s Park is about to table will be judged on whether it confronts that trajectory or offers “another short-term snapshot.”
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it → lay → snapshot
Two mechanics explain how matched revenue and spending growth still produced a mountain of debt.
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growth → explain → debt
The first: Ontario’s deficits do not drift upward; they lurch.
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they → drift → ?
The early-1990s recession produced a $12.4-billion shortfall in 1992/93, and the province did not record a surplus until 1999/2000.
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province → produce → 1999/2000
The 2008/09 crisis opened a $19.3-billion hole in 2009/10.
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crisis → open → 2009/10
Each downturn tears a gap that years of revenue growth close only partially before the next shock arrives.
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shock → tear → growth
The Financial Accountability Office now projects deficits of $10 billion or more through 2027/28, and with U.S. tariffs threatening hundreds of thousands of steel and auto jobs, those estimates are a floor, not a ceiling.
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estimates → project → jobs
Ontario pioneered splitting operating and capital budgets in the 1990s, so the headline deficit captures only part of what the province borrows.
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province → pioneer → what
Between 1990 and 2025, Ontario’s accumulated deficits reached $224 billion while its net debt rose by $421 billion.
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debt → accumulate → billion
Reported deficits have fluctuated without much trend; additions to net debt climb steadily.
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additions → fluctuate → debt
The net-debt-to-GDP ratio has nearly tripled, from 13 percent in the early 1990s to about 38 percent today.
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ratio → triple → percent
Ottawa adopted the same split in Budget 2025 and now counts film tax credits as capital investment—a warning about where the practice leads.
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practice → adopt → warning
Capital spending has been justified as a jump-start for an economy that keeps stalling.
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that → justify → economy
Real per capita GDP has grown just 1.2 percent a year since 1990, and the trend has broken in half: 1.4 percent before 2008, 0.5 percent after.
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trend → grow → 2008
Ontario’s share of the national economy has slid from 41 percent in 1990 to about 38 percent.
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share → slide → percent
Borrowing more to build more has not bought growth.
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Borrowing → borrow → growth
That is why the arithmetic cannot be fixed by trimming programs.
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arithmetic → fix → programs
Nationally, labour productivity has grown roughly 0.2 percent a year over the past decade, against more than 1.3 percent between 1995 and 2015.
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productivity → grow → 1995
Keeping provincial debt on a stable long-run path requires an adjustment just shy of 2 percent of GDP under normal productivity assumptions—and about 5 percent of GDP over 50 years if the slump persists.
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slump → keep → years
A return to historically normal growth largely dissolves the problem.
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return → dissolve → problem
Two things belong in the fall statement.
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things → belong → statement
First, a line directly beneath the deficit showing the year’s increase in net debt, so taxpayers see the full cost of what Protect Ontario borrows.
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Ontario → show → what
Second, growth policy that outlasts the tariff fight: full and immediate expensing of capital investment, a lower harmonized business tax rate, and automatic recognition of professional credentials across provinces.
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that → outlast → provinces
The $8.7-billion Ottawa-Ontario package for steel, autos, and critical minerals buys time; it does not buy productivity.
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it → buy → productivity
Absent that shift, the next recession will open another gap, net debt will spike to a new plateau, and Ontario’s share of the Canadian economy will keep shrinking while its obligations grow.
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obligations → open → economy
This statement decides whether it reaches 40.
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it → decide → 40
Ontario’s debt has surged to a projected $521 billion by 2027/28, driven by persistent deficits and economic stagnation.
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debt → surge → deficits
Despite revenues and spending growing at similar rates, the province has accumulated nearly $250 billion in deficits since 1990.
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province → grow → 1990
Key issues include the impact of economic downturns, accounting practices that obscure true borrowing costs, and the need for effective growth policies.
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that → include → policies
Without significant changes, Ontario risks further economic decline and increased debt levels as it faces future recessions.
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it → risk → recessions
The Aporia
