The bars and restaurants fill up and the city rocks.
asserted
city → fill → ?
For diplomats, it’s an opportunity – but it’s also a long night, as you trek across the party scene in search of insight and illumination.
asserted
you → ’ → insight
Invariably, it has its moments.
asserted
it → have → moments
I recall being at the Washington Post party on the night of the presidential election on 8 November 2016.
asserted
I → recall → November
Washington is an overwhelmingly Democrat city and the atmosphere was raucously optimistic, reflecting Hillary Clinton’s small but consistent lead in the polls.
asserted
atmosphere → reflect → polls
As the first results came in a shocked hush fell across the room.
asserted
hush → come → room
People gathered in small, murmuring groups.
asserted
People → gather → groups
Within 30 minutes, half the guests had left.
asserted
guests → leave → minutes
In contrast, I recall speaking to Nancy Pelosi, the queen of the Democrats, at a watch party on 6 November 2018, for the midterms during Trump’s first presidency.
asserted
I → recall → presidency
I asked her what I should put in my overnight report to London, given that most results wouldn’t be in.
asserted
results → ask → London
She said, with striking confidence, that I should predict that the Democrats would retake the House of Representatives.
asserted
Democrats → say → Representatives
She was right: the Democrats flipped 41 Republican seats.
asserted
Democrats → flip → seats
It gave Pelosi a second term as speaker of the House and gave the world the enjoyable theatre of her sitting directly behind Trump at his State of the Union speeches, rolling her eyes at the bombast.
asserted
her → give → bombast
So what judgments will the current generation of British diplomats have made about the extraordinary political earthquake of Tuesday night, and its implications for British interests and the handling of our most important bilateral relationship for the next two years?
asserted
generation → make → years
The starting point has to be the scale of this victory.
asserted
point → have → victory
The blue tsunami has swept the Democrats into ownership of the House, the Senate and the majority of governors’ mansions across the country.
asserted
tsunami → sweep → country
To a real estate guy such as Donald Trump, imagine how galling it must be to lose so much property in one night: the Monopoly board almost swept clean.
asserted
board → imagine → night
The Democrats ended their lockout from rural states by taking the cornfields of Iowa.
asserted
Democrats → end → Iowa
After a succession of “close, but no cigar” elections, they finally took a Senate seat in Texas.
asserted
they → take → Texas
And they even won in Kansas, which hadn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
asserted
which → win → 1932
Now we are left to wonder how this bloodbath will affect Trump’s behaviour over the remaining 26 months and 14 days of his presidency.
asserted
bloodbath → leave → presidency
The Washington insider gossip after his 2018 defeat was that Trump had taken it badly; he felt humiliated and was casting around for people to blame.
asserted
people → take → it
So expect the Trump woodchipper to be fired up.
asserted
woodchipper → expect → ?
But never mind Trump’s hurt feelings: what about the stuff that matters to us?
asserted
that → mind → us
As JD Vance has pointed out – at some risk to his personal relationship with the president – the conflict with Iran and its impact on global energy prices was a big part of this election disaster.
asserted
conflict → point → disaster
The problem for Trump is that he hasn’t got an obvious exit ramp.
asserted
he → get → ramp
Negotiations are taking place with Iran via intermediaries.
asserted
Negotiations → take → intermediaries
US demands seem to change every day, but they centre on ending the Iranian nuclear programme and the destruction of what Trump calls the “nuclear dust” – Iran’s stock of 440kg of highly enriched uranium.
asserted
Trump → seem → uranium
But the Iranians are demanding a huge amount in return – security guarantees, the end of the US naval blockade, an end to sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, a reduction of US forces in the region and even, by some accounts, the strategic prize of sovereignty over the strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Iranians → demand → Hormuz
And they think they can outlast the Americans: after all, they live there while the Americans are just visiting.
asserted
Americans → think → Americans
But equally, given how far apart the parties are, this might drag on, compounding the economic damage for all of us.
uncertain
this → give → us
And the bombing might restart: the Israelis clearly want this, and Trump seems to be keeping his options open, moving more military hardware to the region.
uncertain
Trump → restart → region
No one knows which way he will jump – least of all perhaps Trump himself.
asserted
he → know → all
As for Ukraine, for whatever reason (and the conspiracy theories abound), Trump has always appeared to blame Volodymyr Zelenskyy rather than Vladimir Putin for the war.
asserted
Trump → abound → war
I think he will continue to advocate a peace settlement involving Ukraine giving up all of the Donbas (including the territory Putin has failed to capture) and promising never to join Nato or the EU.
asserted
Putin → think → Nato
Zelenskyy will refuse to sign up to this.
asserted
Zelenskyy → refuse → this
So, absent some surprise Putin concessions – of which there have been none to date – this too could drag on and on.
uncertain
this → drag → date
Then we have the continuing possibility of new tariffs.
asserted
we → have → tariffs
Trump has argued for tariffs for more than 40 years.
asserted
Trump → argue → years
They will remain his instrument of choice for coercion or punishment.
asserted
They → remain → coercion
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
