During the last election cycle, then-Vice President Kamala Harris struck a hawkish note.
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Harris → strike → note
While the Democratic Party squashed a rebellion of voters angry about the Gaza war, Harris attacked then-Republican candidate Donald Trump for appeasing Iran and North Korea.
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Harris → squash → Iran
But after two years of turmoil in the Middle East, including Trump's unsuccessful Iran war, the Democratic Party has changed.
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Party → include → war
Establishment politicians like Rep. Adam Smith (D–Wash.) have openly said that it was a mistake to become associated with "neoconservative global dominance visions," and more hawkish incumbents were overthrown in primaries that were very much about the war.
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that → say → war
Communities attached to the military-industrial complex in northern Virginia leaned much more Republican in their donations this year.
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Communities → attach → donations
Between the 2024 and 2026 campaigns, the partisan split of donations moved from overwhelmingly Democratic to roughly balanced between Democrats and Republicans.
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split → move → Democrats
A disclaimer on the data: Not everyone who lives in Langley works for the CIA, and not everyone who works for the CIA lives in Langley.
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who → live → Langley
And as Americans, they have a right to donate to whatever causes they see fit; there are some unfortunate privacy implications to the government making individual donations public information.
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donations → have → causes
The currently-available filings also only extend through September 2025.
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filings → extend → September
But in aggregate, the data tell an interesting story about communities whose livelihood comes from the deep state.
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livelihood → tell → state
While residents of Langley and McLean overwhelmingly prefer Democrats to represent themselves—Rep. James R. Walkinshaw (D–Va.) handily won reelection—they are OK with helping Republicans get elected in other states.
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Republicans → prefer → states
The outside Democrats that Langley and McLean residents do donate to tend to be centrist hawks.
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residents → donate → that
This cycle, only four were Democrats who ran in the general election.
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who → run → election
Another candidate on the list, Alex Vindman, ran for Senate in Florida on his national security credentials but lost the Democratic primary to progressive upstart Angie Nixon.
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candidate → run → Nixon
Only four out of the top 15 out-of-state recipients in 2024 won their elections.
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recipients → win → elections
(One of them, Kyrsten Sinema, dropped out of the Arizona race.)
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One → drop → race
This cycle, six of the top 15 lost.
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six → lose → 15
In 2024, he lost to Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA officer who was also on the top 15 list.
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who → lose → list
This year, Rogers lost to Abdul El-Sayed, an antiwar Arab progressive, in a much bigger rebuke to the national security state.
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Rogers → lose → state
The overall donation data tell an even more dramatic story.
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data → tell → story
In the 2024 cycle, Langley and McLean residents gave $1.25 million to Republican Party committees, and $2.3 million to Democratic Party committees.
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residents → give → committees
This cycle, donations to Republican committees increased to $1.5 million while donations to Democratic committees fell to $601,616.
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donations → increase → 601,616
Meanwhile, although donations through the Democratic aggregator ActBlue doubled from $1.25 million to $2.8 million, donations through the Republican aggregator WinRed quadrupled from $308,864 to $1.59 million.
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donations → double → million
Some of the shift was clearly from the same people shifting.
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people → shift → shift
Bipartisan donors—those from Langley and McLean who gave to candidates and committees from both parties—gave $1.9 million to Democrats and $1.2 million to Republicans total in 2024.
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who → give → 2024
This cycle, the same category of donors gave $955,492 to Democrats and $1.39 million to Republicans.
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category → give → Republicans
It's worth noting how unusual this bipartisan split in individual donors is.
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split → note → donors
Americans overwhelmingly pick one party and stick to it; only 0.5 percent of donors nationwide this cycle gave to both parties.
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percent → pick → parties
Yet 2.5 percent of ZIP code 22101 donors gave to both.
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percent → give → both
Despite shifts on the national level, plenty of other Democrats are still hawks or willing to accommodate hawkish policy.
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plenty → accommodate → policy
Again, not everyone in Langley and McLean votes solely based on the interests of the local institutions.
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everyone → vote → institutions
But the Langley and McLean donation numbers are an indicator of where things are going.
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things → go → ?
That part of the country had less reason to favor Democratic control of Congress this year than they did for Harris' coalition.
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they → have → coalition
The Aporia
