When news broke on October 5 that Yemen’s internationally recognised government was launching a major new offensive to take control of territories held by Houthi fighters, Mohammed Ahmed began to prepare for the worst.
asserted
Ahmed → break → worst
Sanaa has been under Houthi control since late 2014 after the Houthis seized the capital city in the initial phase of a civil war that has ebbed and flowed for more than a decade.
asserted
that → seize → decade
But when it announced Operation Dawn of Yemen, the new offensive, last month, Yemeni government forces, backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition, declared they would aim to retake control of all parts of the country held by the Houthis, including Sanaa.
asserted
they → announce → Sanaa
“A state of worry and uncertainty overwhelmed my family and me,” Ahmed, a 40-year-old resident of Sanaa, said.
asserted
Ahmed → overwhelm → Sanaa
Ahmed was not concerned about which side would emerge victorious.
asserted
side → emerge → ?
Instead, he feared the consequences of hostilities near or inside Yemen’s most densely populated city.
asserted
he → fear → city
A month after the operation began, Ahmed’s anxiety has eased as Sanaa remains largely calm, apart from recurring air strikes.
asserted
Sanaa → begin → strikes
Meanwhile, the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), have scored territorial gains in other provinces, including Taiz and Lahij in southern Yemen, where fighting has not ceased.
asserted
fighting → know → Yemen
But while Yemenis such as Ahmed said the initial momentum surrounding Dawn of Yemen has faded, experts and researchers view the operation as marking a new phase in a war of attrition that shows no signs of easing.
asserted
that → say → easing
Striking the pillars of Houthi strategy
Turki al-Goblan, head of the Saudi Daimumah Center for Studies, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis have survived in previous years by adapting to strikes and leveraging complex geography, clandestine supply and concealment networks, and the use of civilians as human shields.
asserted
Houthis → strike → shields
The Dawn of Yemen offensive has “dealt a blow to the three pillars of this strategy”, al-Goblan said.
asserted
Goblan → deal → strategy
The first pillar, according to him, is the fuel and supply system, which keeps Houthi combat vehicles moving, transports ammunition and delivers reinforcements.
uncertain
which → accord → reinforcements
Second, the operation has hit the Houthis in the maritime areas around the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the western coast, which serve as outlets through which alternative external supply routes pass.
asserted
routes → hit → which
Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea and is a major waterway through which Saudi Arabia exports its oil and Asian economies, such as China, ship commodities to Europe.
asserted
Arabia → connect → Europe
Third, some of the tribes surrounding Sanaa have begun declaring mobilisation in support of the internationally recognised Yemeni government, undermining the Iran-backed Houthis’ reliance on them.
asserted
some → surround → them
“When these three pillars are targeted simultaneously, the question shifts from the scale of losses to the ability to replenish them,” al-Goblan added.
asserted
Goblan → target → them
He argued that the pace of attrition has exceeded the Houthis’ ability to recover.
asserted
pace → argue → ability
“Attrition ceases to be the opposite of a decisive victory and becomes the means of achieving it as repeated losses translate into an accumulating inability to sustain the fight.
asserted
losses → cease → fight
This is the scenario I consider more likely.”
Since seizing Sanaa in September 2014, the Houthis have taken control of much of northern and western Yemen.
asserted
Houthis → consider → Yemen
Since then, the conflict has remained unresolved.
asserted
conflict → remain → ?
Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, said the Dawn of Yemen pushed the Houthis to move their forces and their military capabilities, exposing the group to deadly attacks.
asserted
Dawn → say → attacks
“Many of the Houthi field commanders and hundreds of fighters have been killed in air strikes, especially in Taiz and Yemen’s western coast.
asserted
Many → kill → Taiz
While the killing of these fighters has not stopped Houthi territorial gains, these gains can be short-lived if the government airpower and ground fighters keep launching coordinated military attacks,” Mohammed said.
asserted
Mohammed → stop → attacks
Last month, the Yemeni government said its forces killed or wounded 1,540 Houthis in 24 hours.
asserted
forces → say → hours
Late last week, the government said 16,100 Houthi operatives and commanders had been killed or wounded since October 5.
asserted
operatives → say → October
The Houthis have not confirmed a death toll and have in the meantime been firing missiles and drones daily into Saudi Arabia too, hitting multiple airports and disrupting air traffic over the kingdom.
asserted
Houthis → confirm → kingdom
A war of attrition
Yazeed al-Jeddawy, a research manager at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that the course of the conflict increasingly appears to be moving towards a prolonged war of attrition as the government offensive has not shifted the balance of power over the past 30 days.
asserted
offensive → tell → days
“The conflict is no longer driven solely by the dynamics inside Yemen; it is intertwined with the wider regional confrontation and the war involving Iran,” he said.
asserted
he → drive → Iran
Iran sees the Houthis as a source of strategic leverage, al-Jeddawy noted.
asserted
Jeddawy → see → leverage
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seeks to curb the group’s military capabilities and prevent it from threatening vital maritime routes, particularly Bab al-Mandeb.
asserted
Arabia → seek → routes
“The growing intensity of the fighting, the scale of the losses they are prepared to absorb and their willingness to climb the escalation ladder suggest an increasingly zero-sum approach,” al-Jeddawy added.
asserted
Jeddawy → grow → approach
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the total number of attacks by the Saudi-led coalition, including air strikes, in Yemen has reached 3,939 since the latest escalation began.
asserted
escalation → say → 3,939
On Monday, the country’s Presidential Leadership Council reaffirmed its commitment to the Dawn of Yemen and its objectives, namely ending the Houthi “coup”, restoring state institutions and extending the state’s authority over its entire territory.
asserted
Council → reaffirm → territory
Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesperson for the government-aligned Joint Forces on Yemen’s West Coast, told Al Jazeera the Houthis have lately expanded their military gains in Taiz; however, the price of such a move is extremely high.
asserted
price → align → move
What the Houthis have lost over the past month is more than their losses over the past years combined.”
asserted
lost → lose → years
Yemeni government forces said they had reclaimed control of the Taiz governorate’s Dhubab district and key positions near Bab al-Mandeb.
asserted
they → say → Mandeb
Al-Dubaish indicated that the Houthis capitalised on ceasefires over the past decade that offered the group more time to prepare and mobilise for war.
asserted
that → indicate → war
“The lesson is clear: The group threatens all factions in Yemen, and efforts should be united to confront this threat,” he said.
asserted
he → threaten → threat
Yemen’s government said on Sunday that its forces recaptured military positions and strategic heights east of al-Hazm, the capital of the northern governorate of al-Jawf.
asserted
forces → say → Jawf
Since the start of the Dawn of Yemen, neither Yemen’s government-controlled territories nor Saudi Arabia has been safe from Houthi missile attacks.
asserted
territories → control → attacks
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
