On the eve of an election that threatened to upend his presidency, Donald Trump went to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, where he had overseen a multimillion-dollar renovation that went awry when its new coating peeled and algae turned the water green.
asserted
algae → threaten → water
Aides hoped the President would focus on the concerns weighing on ordinary Americans: soaring gas prices, expensive groceries, a new war in the Middle East.
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President → hop → East
Instead, Trump spent much of his 53-minute speech talking about construction projects rather than the struggles of the nation he had been elected to serve.
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he → spend → nation
Allies marveled at Trump’s inability to stay on message as he crisscrossed the country.
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he → marvel → country
He boasted that oil companies were making a fortune as Americans struggled with energy costs.
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Americans → boast → costs
He claimed New Yorkers were no longer allowed to call their mothers “mom,” suggested renaming New Mexico “New America,” and repeatedly mimicked a Democratic Senate candidate vomiting at the sight of meat.
uncertain
Yorkers → claim → meat
Time and again, he veered into bizarre digressions about men's physiques.
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he → veer → physiques
As one Trump aide put: “It’s hard to reach voters who can’t afford gas when your candidate keeps talking about Arnold Palmer’s endowment and Jon Husted’s ass.
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candidate → put → endowment
They seized control of both the House and Senate with ease.
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They → seize → ease
They captured governorships and Senate seats by commanding margins in traditionally Republican states, and prevailed in House districts gerrymandered to favor the GOP.
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They → capture → GOP
Across the country, the President’s handpicked candidates went down to resounding defeats, including scandal-plagued Ken Paxton in Texas and Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, in South Carolina—nominees he had elevated over the objections of party leaders who believed other Republicans stood a better chance.
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Republicans → go → chance
By night's end, Trump acknowledged the opposition's victory and recognized that the war in Iran was a factor in his loss.
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war → acknowledge → loss
"We actually have the greatest economy," Trump told Fox News.
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Trump → have → News
"But because of the gasoline prices people don't see it as much as they would have without it.
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they → see → it
And the gasoline was caused by Iran."
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gasoline → cause → Iran
Trump’s confidantes often remarked that he cared little about the outcome of the midterms.
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he → remark → midterms
He regarded his party's loss of seats in Congress as an inescapable historical pattern.
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He → regard → pattern
He had a point: Barack Obama's Democrats took a beating in consecutive midterms, and George W. Bush's Republicans were drubbed in 2006.
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Republicans → have → 2006
Trump himself oversaw the loss of dozens of House seats in 2018.
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Trump → oversee → 2018
Advisers tried convincing the President that he had some agency over the election’s trajectory, but “he had trouble getting past the history,” one of Trump's top advisers says.
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one → try → advisers
He grew resigned to the gridlocked slugfest ahead and dismissive of the investigations and potential impeachment proceedings Democrats could embark upon.
uncertain
Democrats → grow → investigations
“They’ll probably go after me,” he told TIME in late September, “and I’ll go after them.
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I → go → them
For more than a decade, Trump has commanded a degree of loyalty from Republicans unmatched in modern politics, bending lawmakers to his will and making dissent a career-ending proposition.
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dissent → command → will
The trouncing the GOP suffered on Nov. 3, coupled with the growing perception that Trump has become a political liability, could usher in a very different final two years for a lame-duck President, causing his grip on the GOP to finally slacken.
uncertain
grip → suffer → GOP
An NBC News exit poll on Tuesday revealed that 43% of voters said they cast their votes to express disapproval of Trump.
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they → reveal → Trump
Presidents in the final two years of their second terms often pivot toward foreign policy, where they can exercise executive power with fewer constraints from Congress or the courts.
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they → pivot → Congress
Trump was already signaling his readiness to resume military strikes against Iran.
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Trump → signal → Iran
Another senior Administration official says Trump plans to concentrate even more heavily on the Western Hemisphere in the final years of his presidency, where a succession of pro-Trump heads of state have risen to power and where he and his allies see an intensifying competition with China and Iran for regional influence.
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he → say → influence
“It's such an opportunity to align,” says one senior Administration official.
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official → align → ?
He will struggle to secure confirmation for his nominees.
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He → struggle → nominees
Aides anticipate Supreme Court battles over his expected reliance on officials serving in an acting capacity in positions that ordinarily require Senate confirmation.
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that → anticipate → confirmation
And yet those closest to Trump insist he will be anything but constrained.
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he → insist → Trump
They predict him to grow more brazen, more defiant, and more determined to fight at any cost.
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him → predict → cost
“Don’t expect a kinder, gentler Trump,” one close ally says.
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ally → expect → Trump
“This may be the end of one chapter of Trump’s presidency, but it’s also the beginning of another.
uncertain
it → ’ → another
With the midterms ramping up in late September, Trump's aides thought he seemed more checked out than usual.
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he → ramp → September
He had yet to dip significantly into the $400 million war chest of his allied super PAC.
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He → have → PAC
Republicans were pleading with him to pour money into one particularly desperate contest: the fight to defend Ken Paxton in ruby-red Texas.
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Republicans → plead → Texas
Trump eventually authorized the two men he had tapped to oversee his outside political operation, Chris LaCivita and James Blair, to begin spending heavily to preserve Republicans' chances of maintaining control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House.
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he → authorize → House
Chief of staff Susie Wiles and other advisers urged Trump to hit the campaign trail, appealing to him as a savior.
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Wiles → urge → savior
…and 42 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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