Negotiations to prevent a further outbreak of war between Iran and the United States are being held, but the stagnant process has highlighted who holds power within Iran’s government.
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who → prevent → government
President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, said on Monday that his government had been given “certain powers” by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei regarding the negotiations with the US.
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government → say → US
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Pezeshkian → hit → diplomacy
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Trump → leave → strikes
Pezeshkian, who has come under fire from hardliners opposed to any deal with Washington, did not give any details about what authority this entails.
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this → come → authority
His comment followed efforts by mediators, including Qatar and Pakistan, to prevent new US strikes on Iran.
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comment → follow → Iran
There have been strong indications of an impending major escalation in the conflict, which began with US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials.
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which → impend → Khamenei
Since then, the balance of power in Iran has increasingly shifted towards the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security-minded officials.
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balance → shift → Corps
“I think the key point is that any agreement must have the backing of the security-military establishment in Iran,” Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera.
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Toossi → think → Jazeera
The political analyst added that this is especially true given that negotiations now concern not just the Iranian nuclear programme and sanctions but also the broader security arrangements emerging from the war, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and guarantees against renewed attacks.
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negotiations → add → attacks
Iran has put forward a seven-point plan it demands the US abide by to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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US → put → Hormuz
Iranian authorities said decision-making on the war and negotiations takes place through a concerted approach within the framework of the institutions of the government.
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making → say → government
Those institutions include the office of the supreme leader and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).
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institutions → include → leader
Mojtaba Khamenei’s office said he met with top military commanders, including IRGC chief commander Ahmad Vahidi, to give them directives on how to handle US threats of all-out war.
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he → say → war
Khamenei said Iran’s armed forces should respond immediately and without geographical restrictions against any threat and expand their list of US and Israeli targets in case the war escalates.
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war → say → case
Ultimately, important decisions, such as ending the war, are decided by the supreme leader, but the SNSC – which includes representatives from the armed forces, ministers from the government, and the heads of parliament and the judiciary – votes on them first.
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which → end → them
Who holds more sway now?
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Who → hold → sway
By law, Iran’s president is also the head of the SNSC, but the position of the secretary has recently held more weight due to his role as a central coordinator for top national security files.
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position → hold → files
That position has been occupied since early August by Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander-in-chief who has never held public office.
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who → occupy → office
When US Vice President JD Vance wrote a letter to Tehran last week, he addressed it to Rezaei, not the president or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, who has also acted as its chief negotiator in recent months.
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who → write → months
Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Rezaei, not Ghalibaf, would respond to the letter if he chooses.
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he → say → letter
But he also pointed out that Ghalibaf had not been removed from the position of chief negotiator.
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Ghalibaf → point → negotiator
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his deputies, including Kazem Gharibabadi, also remain among the main government figures for maintaining contact with mediators and pursuing diplomacy through the United Nations and international bodies.
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Araghchi → include → Nations
Ghalibaf had steered talks that led to the signing in June of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Washington, which briefly paused the war and lifted a maritime blockade imposed against southern Iranian ports by the US military.
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which → steer → military
But it fell apart after Tehran accused the US of violating several provisions of the deal, including on the Strait of Hormuz, and the IRGC launched attacks against three vessels attempting “unauthoritsed” transits.
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IRGC → fall → transits
The US military then escalated its own strikes on Iran, reimposed the blockade and introduced new sanctions on Iran.
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military → escalate → Iran
A larger number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz were then hit by explosions, and Iran’s military was believed to be behind the attacks.
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military → hit → attacks
The MoU’s downfall prompted discussions about the power dynamics within Iran’s government.
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downfall → prompt → government
For months, local and international media and analysts speculated about who ordered the attacks and what their implications were.
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implications → speculate → attacks
Some US media quoted sources as saying hardline factions within the establishment directed the attacks on shipping.
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factions → quote → shipping
In early August, Pezeshkian said he would have preferred the MoU had continued, adding, “A team should have been formed to address violations rather than to fight.”
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team → say → violations
In mid-October, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said hitting the three ships was no rogue action and there was coordination with unspecified higher authorities.
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hitting → say → authorities
“It is not possible for someone to ignore military hierarchy and take action of their own accord on an important issue like war between two or several countries.
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someone → ignore → countries
This is by no means possible,” he said.
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he → say → means
Mohebbi characterised the attacks as a “decisive response” to the violations by the US, which had previously launched attacks during negotiations.
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which → characterise → negotiations
He accused Washington of violating the MoU by establishing an alternative shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz near Oman and taking other steps.
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He → accuse → steps
“It appears that noncommitment and violation of treaties exist as an unwritten doctrine among the governing body of the US,” Mohebbi said.
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Mohebbi → appear → US
In the current mediated talks with the US, some of Iran’s demands amount to a return to the MoU along with better sequencing and some additions to guarantee a potential future deal would last longer.
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deal → mediate → sequencing
Rezaei told state television he detected a positive change in tone in the message sent by Vance, but Iran’s security chief has so far left it unanswered because Iran’s primary conditions have been clearly communicated through mediators.
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conditions → tell → mediators
Tehran seeks an end to the US naval blockade, lifting of oil and other sanctions, release of its funds frozen abroad, reduction in the US military deployment in Iran’s periphery and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
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Tehran → seek → Lebanon
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
