The Aporia
Vicenzino, M. (2026, November 4). As US-Iran war shows, China’s influence can’t secure its line to Gulf oil. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3372480/us-iran-war-shows-chinas-influence-cant-secure-its-line-gulf-oil
Vicenzino, Marco. “As US-Iran war shows, China’s influence can’t secure its line to Gulf oil.” South China Morning Post, 4 Nov. 2026, https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3372480/us-iran-war-shows-chinas-influence-cant-secure-its-line-gulf-oil.
Vicenzino, Marco. “As US-Iran war shows, China’s influence can’t secure its line to Gulf oil.” South China Morning Post, November 4, 2026. https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3372480/us-iran-war-shows-chinas-influence-cant-secure-its-line-gulf-oil.
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As a US-Iran war unfolds, South China Morning Post reports on November 4, 2026, that despite China's growing economic importance to the Gulf region, its influence has proven insufficient to secure stable oil supply lines from the Middle East during times of geopolitical tension. The conflict highlights the limitations of China’s efforts to build commercial and diplomatic ties with its energy suppliers in the area. Although China is becoming more crucial to the Gulf states' economic prospects, these same states retain the ability to disrupt China's access to vital resources when necessary. This underscores a new dimension in global energy competition: not just who controls production and consumption but also who can maintain access under deteriorating geopolitical conditions.
The conflict has made clear the limits of China’s efforts to cultivate commercial and diplomatic clout among its energy suppliers in the Middle East
China is becoming increasingly important to the Gulf’s economic future. Yet the Gulf remains capable of disrupting China’s own.