Claims extracted
11
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
18%
2 of 11 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
A recovery in Britain’s housing market is set to be delayed until 2028 as mortgage rates put pressure on activity and prices, according to a forecast.
uncertain
rates → set → forecast
Savills also said that changing buyer demographics will support demand for bigger family homes.
asserted
demographics → say → homes
It expects house prices to drift lower over the remainder of 2026 and through 2027, resulting in a “peak-to-trough” decline of around 3.0%.
asserted
prices → expect → %
The firm said that average mainstream house prices are forecast to fall by 1.5% across 2027, as the prolonged conflict in the Middle East weighs on sentiment and keeps mortgage rates higher for longer.
asserted
conflict → say → rates
However, improving economic prospects and mortgage affordability are expected to support a recovery from 2028.
asserted
prospects → improve → 2028
Emily Williams, director of residential research at Savills said: “The drawn-out conflict in the Middle East has pushed back the prospect of meaningful mortgage rate relief, which will weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability.
asserted
which → say → sentiment
“We expect this will suppress activity and put pressure on prices next year.
asserted
this → expect → prices
“But this is unlikely to trigger a sharper correction.
asserted
this → trigger → correction
“Most homeowners have already absorbed higher borrowing costs since late 2022, with relatively few still needing to refinance directly from rates below 2%, and the labour market remains resilient.
asserted
market → absorb → %
“Together, these factors should keep forced sales low and limit further downward pressure on prices.”
Savills expects first-time buyers to lead the recovery from 2028, helped by deposit affordability and government initiatives.
House price growth is expected to accelerate during the second half of 2028, according to Savills, reaching 3.5% across the year.
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House price growth is then forecast to reach 5.0% in both 2029 and 2030, with a 3.0% increase in 2031.
Dan Hill, residential research associate at Savills said: “Markets combining relative affordability with strong employment and investment prospects are expected to outperform, including Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool and Bristol, alongside well-connected commuter locations offering better value than their surrounding regions.
“Property type will also remain an important driver of performance.
“Demand for larger family homes continues to be supported by flexible working patterns and changing buyer demographics.
uncertain
Demand → keep → patterns
Here are the cash changes in the average house price expected by Savills in the years ahead:
2027, minus £5,500
2028, plus £12,500
2029, plus £18,500
2030, plus £19,000
2031, plus £12,000
And here are the overall percentage increases in average house prices predicted by Savills in percentage and cash terms over the years to 2031:
London, 8.1%, £60,000
South East, 9.1%, £38,000
East of England, 10.7%, £38,500
South West, 13.5%, £44,500
East Midlands, 15.7%, £41,500
West Midlands, 16.3%, £47,000
Yorkshire and the Humber, 21.0%, £53,000
Wales, 21.0%, £43,500
Scotland, 21.6%, £53,500
North East, 22.2%, £45,500
North West, 23.3%, £62,000
asserted
London → expect → England
The Aporia
