President Trump has a narrow window of a few weeks after the midterm elections to launch a renewed war on Iran before a new Congress is likely to rein in his war powers, experts told The Post.
asserted
experts → have → Post
While Trump is pushing renewed negotiations with Iran, he has warned that he would “finish the job” in Iran if the Islamic Republic fails to submit to his demands.
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Republic → push → demands
If Democrats take the House, as they were projected to on election day, the president would have until January before facing major resistance from Congress.
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president → take → Congress
“The outcome of the US elections could make pursuing the war difficult come January, but not impossible,” said Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
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Schanzer → make → tank
“There is a 6-8 week window for freedom of action to continue the war in Iran,” he added.
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he → be → Iran
Iran appears keenly aware of this as the regime continues to push for diplomacy — while also ramping up threats across the region in an attempt to run out the clock.
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regime → appear → clock
How will the US attack Iran?
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US → attack → Iran
Should the war restart, Trump’s most obvious course of action would be to unleash a short but powerful bombardment campaign across Iran to pressure the regime to negotiate seriously, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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Cancian → restart → Studies
“There are a few possibilities, the most likely of which is a two-week, intense bombardment campaign,” Cancian said.
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Cancian → be → which
“It’s a low risk to the US, but it’s also unlikely to be effective,” he added.
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he → ’ → US
“Iran withstood five weeks of intense bombings before, so two weeks won’t make much of a difference.”
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weeks → withstand → difference
The Trump administration would most likely target the same type of military facilities that were hit earlier in the war, along with coastal bases that are threatening the Strait of Hormuz, the experts noted.
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experts → target → Hormuz
However, if he wanted to step up the pressure, Trump could target Iran’s oil infrastructure and electrical grid — something he repeatedly threatened previously.
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he → want → something
Another powerful signal would be dropping enormous bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain base, which is believed to harbor a nuclear facility deep underground.
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which → drop → facility
The penetrator bombs may not be effective given the depth of the base beneath the granite mountain, Cancian said.
However, such a strike would send a message that the US would not allow any of Iran’s nuclear facilities to go unscathed during the war.
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any → give → war
What weapons will the US deploy?
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US → deploy → weapons
The US currently has two aircraft carriers in the Middle East, the USS George HW Bush Aircraft and the USS George Washington — with the USS Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group on its way to provide additional firepower.
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Group → have → firepower
Each aircraft carrier is capable of launching around 44 strike aircraft — either F/A-18 Super Hornets or stealth F-35C Lightning IIs.
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carrier → launch → aircraft
There are also 22 destroyers and other warships surrounding the Arabian Gulf, with 17 maintaining the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Institute for National Security Studies.
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17 → be → Studies
The US naval presence is set to include more than 20,000 sailors and marines once the Roosevelt arrives.
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Roosevelt → set → sailors
America’s full military force in the region estimated at about 50,000 soldiers.
The US also has access to a wide-range of aircraft that have been moved to airbases in the region.
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that → estimate → region
These include F-15E Strike Eagles, which were deployed during the last round of fighting.
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which → include → fighting
America’s defensive capabilities have also been bolstered with its Patriot and THAAD anti-missile systems spread across the region, including a new battery that arrived in Israel, Cancian said.
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Cancian → bolster → Israel
If the US strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure, it would represent a notable escalation and invite a strong response from Tehran, warned Ria Reddy, the Middle East deputy at the Institute for the Study of War.
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Reddy → strike → War
Iran has long warned that renewed attack from the US would result in a mass retaliation campaign across the Middle East, with the still-missing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei claiming last week that the attacks would have “no geographical limitations.”
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attacks → warn → limitations
“US bases will of course be the prime targets,” Reddy said.
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Reddy → say → course
“Iran wants to increase the cost of the war for the US.”
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Iran → want → US
Iran’s attacks are also predicted to be more dangerous as the regime has had a chance to improve its missile and drone systems, as evidenced by the deadly attacks in June and July, Reddy added.
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Reddy → predict → June
Iran is also expected to ramp up its attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to end the flow of oil that has nearly reached pre-war levels last month.
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that → expect → levels
Along with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, Iran is also poised to call its terror proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen to action, including the Houthi rebels who are currently threatening the Red Sea.
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who → poise → Sea
The threats could also expand further through cyberattacks or terror plots, such as the recently foiled operation at the RAF Fairford military base in the UK.
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threats → expand → UK
What role will Israel play?
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Israel → play → role
While Israel joined the US in the initial strikes of the war in February and March, it remains unclear how involved the Jewish state will be if the conflict re-ignites as it is still reeling from an uncertain election outcome.
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it → join → outcome
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly pushed for war to restart to topple Iran’s regime, nor Israel’s opposition failed to gather a majority in last week’s election, leaving the premier in charge for now.
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opposition → push → charge
“Netanyahu wants to deliver a knockout blow to the regime, but Trump is favoring diplomacy and letting the pressure campaign push Iran to make a deal,” Schanzer said.
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Schanzer → want → deal
A diplomatic end could be a death knell for Netanyahu’s political career, Schanzer added, and it would be unclear if the opposition could hold the same sway over the Trump administration, which previously suggested it entered the war at the behest of Israel.
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it → add → Israel
Netanyahu’s opponents have accused the prime minister of wanting to restart the war in an effort to halt Israel’s ongoing election process so he can remain in power.
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he → accuse → power
The Aporia
