Jim Chalmers is a man stuck in an endless loop.
asserted
Chalmers → stick → loop
Time and again in his four and a half years as treasurer, he has had to front up after bad news and spin the unspinnable.
asserted
he → have → unspinnable
That's an awful lot of times to reach for the same, gloomy script.
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That → reach → script
And the talking points are becoming gratingly familiar.
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points → become → ?
We know you're doing it tough.
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you → know → it
We're trying to help in a responsible way.
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We → try → way
Politics works on the "vomit principle": to make sure your message is heard, you need to say it over and over again until it makes you want to vomit.
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you → work → it
But after nearly five years of high inflation and high interest rates, the treasurer and his colleagues are at risk of triggering the wrong kind of nausea.
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treasurer → trigger → nausea
Their challenge now is to find something fresh to stay.
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challenge → find → something
That is difficult when the economic story hasn't changed much.
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story → change → ?
The entire tenure of the Albanese government has taken place in a state of suspended animation, as it grapples with both the dual pain of the inflation disease and the harsh medicine of interest rates.
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it → take → rates
The billions spent on short-term cost-of-living help have done little to ease the anger of struggling voters, while opening the government up to opposition accusations that it is making the problem worse.
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problem → spend → accusations
Ministers do not believe they could have done things any other way and are struggling to see what else they may cut from a federal budget heaving under the weight of long-term pressures in health, defence and social programs.
uncertain
they → believe → programs
Meanwhile, the shocks keep coming.
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shocks → come → ?
In the first wave four years ago, the Ukraine war and a global supply crunch arrived at precisely the worst time for Australia and other countries who were still in economy-stimulating mode after the pandemic.
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who → arrive → pandemic
This time, the Middle East war has combined with a spectacularly ill-timed artificial intelligence investment boom, which may yield fruit in years to come if the optimists are to be believed, but which for now is mostly a capital-heavy cash splash.
uncertain
which → combine → years
On both occasions, one great big hammer blow from the universe has pushed up the level of demand in our economy just as another big hammer blow from the opposite direction has pushed down what we are able to supply.
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we → push → what
None of these can reasonably be seen as the government's fault.
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None → see → fault
Yes, it's true the list of new spending decisions made under Chalmers's watch includes some expensive items we could have done without.
uncertain
we → make → items
A little less cash could have meant a little less pain.
uncertain
cash → mean → pain
But no set of government decisions, however courageous, could have spared us from all pain.
uncertain
set → spar → pain
Inflation, as Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock puts it, makes us poorer.
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us → put → it
Our dollars don't go as far.
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dollars → go → ?
Excising it from our system hurts, whichever way you slice it.
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you → excise → it
Courage to change the things I can
All of which is to say that there's nothing wrong, as such, with the government's talking points.
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All → change → points
It's not wrong to say that the root causes lie elsewhere.
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causes → say → ?
It's not wrong to say that it's a fine balance between helping and hindering.
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it → say → helping
And it's not wrong to say it sucks.
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it → say → ?
In its first term, when they endured a similar cost-of-living slump, ministers could reasonably hold out hope that the clouds would part before the election.
uncertain
clouds → endure → election
And they did.
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they → do → ?
Three rate cuts created a well-timed sense that the worst was over.
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worst → create → sense
This time, hoping for the cycle to turn will not be enough, not least because the curveballs from a volatile world won't stop coming.
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curveballs → hop → world
Around the world, the mainstream politicians faring best are those who have been able to bend the volatility to their advantage.
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who → fare → advantage
As the saying goes: don't waste a crisis.
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saying → go → crisis
There are signs the government has grasped this.
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government → be → this
Both Chalmers and Albanese have framed the budget's changes to the capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts as their answer to voter anger at the "broken status quo".
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Chalmers → frame → quo
The policy has been contentious, and Chalmers has taken to remarking in the past week that he believes he has "lost some paint" over the political risk.
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he → take → risk
"I think any treasurer taking on difficult reforms, which have been neglected for too long, in our tax system, in our housing market and elsewhere — no reforming treasurer expects there to be some kind of unanimously positive reaction," he said on Tuesday.
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he → think → Tuesday
Whether Chalmers is actually relaxed about the backlash, and whether his colleagues feel the same, is unclear.
uncertain
colleagues → feel → same
But if the lesson from the tax decision, by far Labor's riskiest decision, is to take fewer risks, the outcome will likely be a hiding to nothing.
asserted
outcome → take → nothing
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
