Attacks on commercial vessels appear to have become an established tactic in ongoing wars.
asserted
Attacks → appear → wars
In the Gulf region, they are part of the continuing war of attrition between the United States and Iran.
asserted
they → continue → States
In the Black Sea, they have become an increasingly prominent feature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
asserted
they → become → Russia
Most of the vessels being targeted are not military ships but commercial ones carrying oil, gas and petroleum products, or food commodities such as wheat and corn.
asserted
Most → target → wheat
In October, commercial shipping in the Black Sea witnessed a sharp escalation, with a series of drone attacks targeting at least nine vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members.
asserted
shipping → witness → Romania
This is a dangerous development through which Moscow is testing the alliance’s cohesion.
asserted
Moscow → test → cohesion
Several NATO members have already complained of Russian incursions into their territory, raising questions about whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for collective defence, could be invoked.
uncertain
which → complain → defence
Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River.
asserted
Russia → bombard → Sea
With most Ukrainian ports disrupted, Kyiv has turned to alternative routes to export its grain to markets in Africa and the Middle East.
asserted
Kyiv → disrupt → Africa
These fall into three main categories:
- The Danube corridor through Romania:
asserted
These → fall → Romania
Grain is transported from Ukraine’s interior to the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube, then through Romania’s Sulina Channel to the Black Sea, or to the Romanian port of Constanta, where it is transferred to larger vessels.
asserted
it → transport → vessels
Ukraine uses trains and trucks to transport grain through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, from where it is shipped through European ports on the Baltic, Adriatic or Black Seas.
asserted
it → use → Seas
The Ukrainian maritime corridor along NATO coastlines: Departing from ports in the Odesa region, ships travel through the western Black Sea, close to the waters of Romania and Bulgaria, then towards Turkiye, before passing through the Bosphorus Strait to reach global markets.
asserted
ships → depart → markets
But these alternative corridors have not escaped Russian attacks.
asserted
corridors → escape → attacks
According to a report by maritime security company Ambrey, the monthly rate of attacks associated with the Danube corridor was 3.7 times higher in the July-September quarter than in the first half of 2026.
uncertain
rate → accord → 2026
Meanwhile, the Danube’s share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports jumped from about 10 percent during January-June to 74 percent in August 2026.
asserted
share → handle → August
A war on food, from land to sea
Seeking to inflict maximum damage and losses on each other, neither Russia nor Ukraine has shied away from using every available means to deter or subdue the other.
asserted
Russia → seek → other
While the war initially focused on military and logistical facilities, attacks subsequently expanded to infrastructure and ports, then gradually to refineries and energy installations.
asserted
attacks → focus → refineries
Today, food-related facilities and ships carrying grain and other food products are increasingly in the line of fire.
asserted
facilities → relate → fire
At the beginning of the war, Moscow concentrated its strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure for producing grain and oilseeds.
asserted
Moscow → concentrate → grain
It obstructed access to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and repeatedly targeted vessels carrying grain.
asserted
It → obstruct → grain
This forced Ukraine to secure alternative export routes, including the Danube, which has itself become a target of Russian attacks.
asserted
which → force → attacks
Data indicate that they accounted for about 40 percent of the country’s total merchandise exports in the first half of this year.
asserted
they → indicate → year
This helps explain why Russia has concentrated its strikes on ports and vessels transporting these economically vital products.
asserted
Russia → help → products
Ukraine’s agriculture minister estimates that if the ports remain closed, the country will lose at least $8bn between June this year and June 2027.
asserted
country → estimate → June
Russian attacks on cargo vessels and export infrastructure have largely brought maritime traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to a halt.
asserted
attacks → bring → halt
These ports previously handled about 90 percent of the country’s agricultural exports.
asserted
ports → handle → exports
On the other side, Russian grain production and exports had, until recently, remained relatively insulated from attacks.
asserted
production → remain → attacks
But this summer, Kyiv redirected its drones towards Russian grain and vegetable oil export facilities, as well as commercial vessels, including grain carriers.
asserted
Kyiv → redirect → carriers
This marked a significant shift in the economic war, as Ukrainian strikes had previously focused more heavily on Russian energy installations and military facilities.
asserted
strikes → mark → installations
Ukrainian attacks disrupted main Russian grain export terminals on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, forcing Moscow to divert some of its exports to Baltic Sea ports.
asserted
attacks → disrupt → ports
The Sea of Azov had previously handled nearly a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports.
asserted
Sea → handle → exports
Supply shortages and soaring prices
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine ranks fifth.
asserted
Ukraine → soar → exporter
Together, they account for nearly 27 percent of global wheat exports.
asserted
they → account → exports
Recent attacks have pushed wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to their highest levels since 2023, with prices rising by about 20 percent in the first nine months of this year.
asserted
prices → push → year
The escalation of attacks by both sides has coincided with the peak wheat export season in each country.
asserted
escalation → coincide → country
Winter wheat, the dominant variety grown in Russia and Ukraine, is harvested in summer and exported in late summer and early autumn.
asserted
wheat → grow → summer
Ukrainian attacks, particularly those targeting Russian ports on the Sea of Azov and at Novorossiysk, have reportedly knocked out an estimated 70 percent of Russia’s grain export capacity.
uncertain
attacks → target → capacity
Recent Russian attacks, meanwhile, have halted shipments from Odesa, putting nearly 90 percent of Ukrainian grain shipments out of operation.
asserted
attacks → halt → operation
Ukraine also intensified its attacks on cargo ships departing Russian ports in July and August.
asserted
Ukraine → intensify → July
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
