And though some of the MAGA faithful may be motivated to vote because Trump revealed that he was a “freaking genius” for having passed three tests of cognitive decline, or because he was robbed of a Nobel Prize again, or because they believe that he will send them a $5,000 check if and only if the GOP wins, or because they think the Reflecting Pool was sabotaged by Communists, the majority of Americans will be treating his implicit presence on the ballot very differently.
uncertain
majority → motivate → ballot
They view this election as a referendum on his performance in office.
asserted
They → view → office
All midterms are referenda on the sitting president, so Trump needn’t have pleaded with his base.
asserted
Trump → sit → base
On the other hand, his base is shrinking, which may be why he is reduced to offering bribes
It’s hard to think of an election in which an incumbent party has had less to offer voters.
uncertain
party → shrink → voters
The MAGA Republican party is given to vituperation all the time, but in 2024, they at least had issues they could plausibly hit Democrats on, inflation and the border chief among them.
uncertain
they → give → them
Today, those issues favor the Democrats, so the Republicans have only shrill and juvenile name-calling in their quiver.
asserted
Republicans → favor → quiver
There are, I guess, still millions of Americans who thrill to the music of MAGA, but the music has lost its magic for a big chunk of GOP voters.
asserted
music → be → voters
The percentage of Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s performance, the Economist/YouGov polls found, dropped from 34 percent in January 2025 to 18 percent in April 2026.
asserted
polls → approve → April
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found Trump’s strong approval even lower at 13 percent.
asserted
approval → conduct → percent
Picture MAGA voters slinking off to their man caves, shaking their heads.
asserted
voters → picture → heads
Why should Republicans, even die-hard MAGA Republicans, be eager to pull the lever today?
asserted
Republicans → pull → lever
According to an April Gallup poll, a whopping 55 percent of Americans said their personal financial situation was getting worse.
uncertain
situation → accord → Americans
And that, for better or worse, is what drives voting decisions.
asserted
what → drive → decisions
It’s not the threats to invade Greenland or to close down hostile media, or taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war.
asserted
It → ’ → war
It’s not the corruption of criminal justice or the illegal attacks on boats in the Caribbean, or plundering Venezuela while leaving its corrupt, dictatorial government in place.
asserted
It → ’ → place
No, the thing that sours voters is the price of gas, the cost of ground beef, and the availability of affordable housing.
asserted
that → sour → housing
A Financial Times/Focaldata poll released yesterday found that only about 42 percent of Republicans approved of the president’s handling of inflation (just 20 percent of voters overall said the same).
asserted
percent → release → same
The sense that the economy is suffering because of Trump’s policies is arguably a big part of what’s driving down his support among constituencies in which he made gains in 2024: African Americans, Asians, Hispanics, and young people.
asserted
he → suffer → 2024
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 30 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 were very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared with 48 percent of those who voted for Harris.
asserted
who → find → Harris
Trump pleads that voters pretend he’s on the ballot, but he has lost support among every major demographic group including “double-digit drops among Hispanics, men, rural and suburban voters, people without college degrees and evangelical Christians.”
asserted
he → plead → degrees
The survey gives the impression that the only core MAGA constituency that’s more enthusiastic about Trump now is the plutocrats who were only in it for the money.
asserted
who → give → money
That’s a problem.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
Not only is the Iran war costing Americans in the pocketbook; not only was it never explained or justified; not only is it dragging out with no discernible end point; not only is it dangerously depleting stocks of missiles and bombs, but the United States seems to be losing.
asserted
States → cost → missiles
Even among Republicans, approval of Trump’s handling of the war is steeply declining, according to polls by CNN/SSRS, from 73 percent support in March to 60 percent in September.
uncertain
approval → decline → September
It doesn’t help that while Americans are paying $6 a gallon for diesel, Trump is roaring his exultation at the record profits the oil companies are raking in.
asserted
companies → help → profits
Some MAGA stalwarts considered this a dealbreaker.
asserted
this → consider → ?
Immigration remains Trump’s core strength with his supporters, though the broader public has come to the conclusion that enforcement went way too far, and Hispanic voters who had turned toward Trump in 2024 seem to have shifted away from his party.
asserted
who → remain → party
In February, 62 percent of Americans thought the administration had overstepped by sending ICE into American cities, according to an AP/NORC poll.
uncertain
administration → think → poll
A November 2 New York Times/Siena poll found that 50 percent of voters trust the Democrats more on immigration, while only 46 percent trust the GOP.
asserted
percent → find → GOP
Just before the 2024 election, voters trusted Trump more than Kamala Harris on immigration by 11 points.
asserted
voters → trust → points
That’s a helluva reversal in just two years.
asserted
That → ’ → years
Besides, once the border is closed, it becomes less pressing even for those who considered immigration a priority.
asserted
immigration → close → those
As for the matter no one saw coming in 2024, data centers, Trump has positioned himself on the wrong side of a new grassroots movement.
asserted
Trump → see → movement
Fewer than one in four Americans believe that Trump is handling the question of artificial intelligence (ahem, “super intelligence”) well.
asserted
Trump → believe → intelligence
How could there be a scandal if he did all the disgraceful things in full view?
uncertain
he → do → view
He seems to have followed that logic in the blatant, flamboyant corruption of his second term, making no secret of the nauseating graft he is heaping onto his and his family’s plates.
asserted
he → seem → plates
As recently as 2024, one would be hard-pressed to find a poll in which Americans listed government corruption as one of their top issues.
asserted
Americans → press → issues
Now the Financial Times/Focaldata finds that it ranks among the top three priorities for 57 percent of voters, behind only “lower prices and a stronger economy.”
asserted
it → find → prices
Several polls show corruption as the top issue.
asserted
polls → show → issue
An October Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll found that 34 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners think Trump is enriching himself, a 12-point jump in thirteen months.
asserted
Trump → find → months
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
