Before votes are tallied on election night, exit polls offer an early look at who is voting and what is motivating their choices.
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what → tally → choices
An exit poll is a survey of voters taken as they leave (or exit) their voting location.
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they → take → location
Unlike public opinion polls ahead of elections that predict whether respondents will vote, exit polls capture the views of voters in person on Election Day.
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polls → predict → Day
The exit poll also reflects the views of people who voted early or by mail — we take steps to reach those voters by phone and by mail, as well as online.
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we → reflect → mail
Here’s how exit polls work, where they are conducted and how NBC News will be using the results on election night and in the days after.
Who conducts the exit poll?
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Who → work → poll
For this year’s midterm election, exit polls are being conducted by SSRS, a survey and market research firm, on behalf of a group of news organizations: NBC News, ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and MS NOW.
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polls → conduct → organizations
The companies receive the same data, and NBC News then independently analyzes and reports on the exit poll results.
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News → receive → results
What questions are asked?
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questions → ask → ?
The national exit poll asks respondents whether they voted for the Democratic or Republican House candidate in their district, and in many states the poll also asks which candidates voters supported in Senate and governor’s races.
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voters → ask → races
In addition, the poll usually includes a number of questions about voters’ views, such as, “What is the most important issue facing the country?”
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issue → include → country
The other key component of an exit poll is asking about voters’ demographics, such as age, gender, race and education level.
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component → ask → age
These types of questions help illustrate how different groups of people voted and what mattered to them.
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what → help → them
Demographic data is also used to weight the exit poll — that is, to make sure the poll reflects the demographics of the electorate as well as the election results.
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poll → use → electorate
The national and state exit polls include some different questions, to capture voters’ views on local issues and candidates.
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polls → include → issues
The news organizations jointly determine how the exit poll will be conducted and develop the questionnaire together.
How are exit polls conducted?
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polls → determine → questionnaire
The in-person Election Day exit polls are surveys that voters in scientifically selected precincts are asked to fill out as they leave their polling place.
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they → select → place
The paper forms have about 25 questions.
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forms → have → questions
This year, interviewers will be stationed at over 450 polling locations in 15 Senate battleground states.
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interviewers → station → states
Each interviewer follows local rules about where they can stand outside the polling location.
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they → follow → location
The exit polls also include a pre-election survey to capture voters no matter how they participate, whether early, by mail or on Election Day.
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they → include → Day
Before Election Day, respondents are surveyed through methods including mailed invitations, telephone and text interviews and online surveys.
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respondents → survey → invitations
Interviewers then follow up with respondents to confirm that they voted and whom they ultimately voted for.
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they → follow → whom
Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish.
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Respondents → complete → English
On Election Day, interviewers count the people coming out after they have voted and are instructed to offer questionnaires to every third person or every fifth person, for example, from the time polls open until polls close.
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polls → count → time
Interviewers phone in the results from the questionnaires to a data center three times during the day.
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Interviewers → phone → day
Those results are tabulated with the pre-election survey results, and the exit poll is updated throughout the day as new data is collected.
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data → tabulate → day
In person, voters fill out the questionnaires themselves and deposit them in boxes, so their answers, like their actual ballots, are secret.
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answers → fill → ballots
Interviews conducted by mail, by phone and online do not retain any personal information about the voter who was interviewed.
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who → conduct → voter
Which states will have exit polls?
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states → have → polls
In addition to a national exit poll, which captures voters in all 50 states, there are also state exit polls this year in 45 states that have consequential Senate and governor’s contests.
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that → capture → contests
How many people are interviewed?
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people → interview → ?
The national exit poll sample will include over 75,000 voters at voting locations, online and by telephone.
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sample → include → telephone
In 15 states, interviewers will be stationed outside at least 30 randomly sampled voting locations.
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interviewers → station → locations
In the remaining states, interviews are conducted via phone, online and mail.
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interviews → remain → phone
The sample size in Alaska will be about 3,000 voters, and it will also include interviews from voters at early-voting locations before Election Day.
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it → include → Day
All other states with exit poll results for Senate and governor’s races will include between 500 and 3,000 voters.
How do we use exit polls?
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we → include → polls
The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project race outcomes on election night, but the exit poll is primarily used to help tell the story of the election.
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poll → use → election
The data gives viewers and readers real-time insight into what motivates voters and how they feel about the country.
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they → give → country
It’s the nation’s first look at who is turning out to vote this year and what is driving their choices.
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what → ’ → choices
What does NBC News report and when?
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News → report → What
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
