Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are testing two sharply different theories for winning one of the nation’s premier swing states Tuesday in a white-knuckle contest that may determine control of the Senate.
uncertain
that → test → Senate
El-Sayed is aiming to prove that an unapologetically progressive agenda centered on universal healthcare can win a general election in a state President Donald Trump carried two years ago.
asserted
Trump → aim → state
The former Wayne County health director narrowly defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in an expensive and bruising Democratic primary.
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director → defeat → primary
Michigan’s diverse electorate has created a complicated political battleground, with both nominees seeking statewide support while navigating divisions among the state’s large Jewish, Muslim and Black communities.
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nominees → create → communities
Bitter disputes over U.S. support for Israel and accusations of antisemitism overshadowed the race, culminating in Stevens’ shocking endorsement of Rogers in the final days of the race.
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disputes → overshadow → race
For Rogers, the race is a second chance after he lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate election by fewer than 20,000 votes.
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he → lose → votes
This time, the former congressman must win without Trump as a galvanizing force at the top of the ballot and as high gas prices and other costs have weighed on Republicans nationally.
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prices → win → Republicans
El-Sayed has sought to expand Michigan’s Democratic coalition with a populist message, hoping to drive up youth turnout after months of campus rallies, while winning over disillusioned Republicans in rural areas.
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Sayed → seek → areas
No Republican has won a Senate race in the state since 1994, but the retirement of two-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters created a rare opening.
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retirement → win → opening
The race has become a focal point in the national fight for Senate control, drawing well over $100 million in advertising since the Aug. 4 primary.
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race → become → primary
Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the majority, and losing any could put that out of reach.
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losing → need → reach
The campaign has also featured some of the year’s most inflammatory rhetoric.
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campaign → feature → rhetoric
Republicans repeatedly have sought to link El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator, to terrorist organizations, despite no evidence of such ties.
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who → seek → ties
Trump repeatedly called him a “jihadist.”
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Trump → call → ?
The nation’s most contentious Democratic primary left scars
While Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers stunned Democrats, it reflected tensions that had simmered since the primary for Stevens and some of her supporters.
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that → leave → supporters
A four-term representative of parts of metro Detroit, she received significant support in the August contest from Black and Jewish communities in those areas.
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she → receive → areas
El-Sayed had to work in the post-primary sprint to win over those voters.
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Sayed → have → voters
In September, Kamala Harris, the first Black vice president, campaigned with El-Sayed and told a gathering of the NAACP that he could be a “stopgap” on Trump.
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he → campaign → Trump
Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president, joined a rally for El-Sayed and other Democrats in Michigan days before Election Day.
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Obama → join → Day
He has also been criticized by some in the Jewish community, and Stevens said her defection came after he didn’t do enough to address the community’s concerns.
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he → criticize → concerns
El-Sayed has been a vocal critic of Israel and was criticized for his response to a March attack on a Michigan synagogue, when he said that “hurt people hurt people.”
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people → criticize → people
The attacker had lost family in an Israeli strike in Lebanon.
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attacker → lose → Lebanon
El-Sayed later said that he was “sorry” to “anyone who feels like my comments might have been hurtful.”
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comments → say → anyone
Republicans have highlighted El-Sayed’s ties to Hasan Piker, a popular political streamer who has made inflammatory comments about Israel, Jews and the Sept. 11 attacks.
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who → highlight → Israel
El-Sayed appeared with Piker multiple times during the primary but has since distanced himself from him.
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Sayed → appear → him
El-Sayed faced nearly $60 million in spending from outside groups during the August primary against Stevens.
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Sayed → face → Stevens
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, spent nearly $30 million, its largest investment in a single race.
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Committee → spend → race
Rogers lost with Trump on the ballot.
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Rogers → lose → ballot
Can he win without him?
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he → win → him
Republicans opted to nominate Rogers again after his razor-thin 2024 loss, when then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin prevailed even as Trump won Michigan by more than a percentage point.
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Trump → opt → point
Once a CNN contributor who criticized Trump, Rogers has aligned himself more closely with the president in recent years.
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Rogers → criticize → years
Unlike two years ago, Rogers faced no viable Republican primary challenge this cycle, allowing him to spend months raising money and preparing for the general election while Democrats battled through their costly and divisive primary.
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Democrats → face → primary
But the political environment has presented fresh challenges.
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environment → present → challenges
The war with Iran continues as everyday costs, particularly at the gas pump, remain high.
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costs → continue → pump
Trump has also waged a trade war with neighboring Canada, a longtime economic partner of Michigan.
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Trump → wag → Michigan
Rogers has focused more on attacking El-Sayed than touting Republican achievements in Congress and the White House, even as he has campaigned alongside Trump, including at an Oct. 25 rally in Port Huron.
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he → focus → Huron
A former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee who built much of his career around national security, Rogers has had to navigate the unpopular war with Iran while remaining aligned with Trump.
“The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Rogers wrote on social media in September.
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Rogers → build → September
The Aporia
