Since the beginning of the US midterm campaigns, which reach their climax today, Donald Trump has held three rallies in my home state of South Carolina.
asserted
Trump → reach → Carolina
Republicans haven’t had to worry about South Carolina elections for a long time.
asserted
Republicans → have → time
We last elected a Democrat to statewide office in 2006.
asserted
We → elect → 2006
We most recently sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1998.
asserted
We → send → 1998
But 2026 is redrawing the political map.
asserted
2026 → redrawe → map
States like South Carolina that went for Trump by double digits are now open ground – enough to warrant the million-plus dollars it costs to host one of his rallies.
asserted
it → go → rallies
The US president’s rally schedule makes it clear how far the map has shifted.
asserted
map → make → ?
In the past month, he has held 28 rallies.
asserted
he → hold → rallies
Just one was in a state that Trump lost in 2024.
asserted
Trump → lose → 2024
Republicans may well still hold some ground in today’s midterms.
uncertain
Republicans → hold → midterms
But they are playing defence all the way to the horn.
asserted
they → play → horn
Trump has delivered on many of his policies, but voters have not seen the outcomes they were promised.
asserted
they → deliver → outcomes
Many Trump supporters are struggling with the effects of his immigration policy and the rising cost of fuel and other necessities as a result of the war in Iran.
asserted
supporters → struggle → Iran
In 2024, Trump’s message was that somewhere out in the ether, certain groups of Americans were getting a better deal than his voters.
asserted
groups → get → voters
And those people deserved to be punished.
asserted
people → deserve → ?
It could be understood as an economic pitch: if those Americans lost their supposed ascendancy, MAGA voters would gain it.
uncertain
voters → understand → it
Two years down the line, Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living for those voters who put him in office.
asserted
who → raise → office
We are seeing that a politics of retribution tends not to help the people most susceptible to its appeal.
asserted
politics → see → appeal
This is especially true in the rural and agricultural states that Trump won easily in 2024 and where Democratic challengers now find life: places like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and even Alaska.
asserted
challengers → win → Iowa
Many farmers across the US are seeing rising costs and less cash coming in.
asserted
costs → see → US
One Kansas family told CBS News on the weekend that they’re paying $US737,375 ($1,053,905) more to stay afloat this year, mostly as a result of rising fuel costs, while their revenue is down $US325,000 mostly because international markets are drying up under Trump’s tariffs.
asserted
markets → tell → tariffs
They’ve had to sell land that’s been in their family for 140 years to keep their farm from going under.
asserted
that → have → farm
Larry Preisser, the owner of that farm, is voting for a Democrat for the first time in his life.
asserted
Preisser → vote → life
His son is still deciding whether to vote at all.
asserted
son → decide → ?
And the impacts of Trump’s immigration policies extend far beyond individual farms.
asserted
impacts → extend → farms
In communities that rely on agriculture, workers are staying home out of fear of immigration raids.
asserted
workers → rely → raids
Farm processing slows and shipments get delayed.
asserted
shipments → slow → ?
Communities are discovering just how dependent they are on immigrant labor.
asserted
they → discover → labor
Entire regions are losing tax revenue and cash flow, hurting schools and other businesses.
asserted
regions → lose → schools
The percentage of Republicans who say that Trump is responsible for their economic pain has doubled this year, up to 35 per cent in October, according to Pew Research Centre.
uncertain
Trump → say → Centre
Trump has done what he said he would do.
asserted
he → do → what
Largely dismantled institutions he had spent years attacking, such as the Department of Education, USAID, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and public broadcaster PBS.
asserted
he → dismantle → Education
This demolition derby may have satisfied some of the bloodlust of the disaffected, but it hasn’t done much to improve the lives of the people cheering it on.
uncertain
it → satisfy → it
The contradiction at the heart of these politics is that the people voting for the punishment to be meted were also punished.
asserted
punishment → vote → politics
Farmers need immigrant labor.
asserted
Farmers → need → labor
Factory workers depend on foreign customers.
asserted
workers → depend → customers
Their kids need good public schools and healthcare.
asserted
kids → need → schools
Our greatest moments have come when individuals could excel because everyone around them could succeed too.
uncertain
everyone → come → them
American astronauts beat the world to the moon after president John F. Kennedy called the nation to ask not what their country could do for them, but what they could do for their country.
uncertain
they → beat → country
It was a massive collective undertaking, backed by public institutions and private innovation.
asserted
It → back → institutions
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
