The Republican hand-picked by President Donald Trump to win Texas' hotly contested senate seat was supposed to give his closing argument tonight to voters at the storied Alamo – a shrine to Texas liberty.
asserted
Republican → pick → liberty
Instead, Ken Paxton will be making his final pitch to just a few dozen people at Matt's Rancho Martinez, a very modest Tex-Mex restaurant in Allen, a suburb of Dallas in Paxton's home county.
asserted
Paxton → make → county
The humiliating downgrade caps off a campaign dogged by missteps and a perceived lack of enthusiasm, which has left the race neck and neck between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
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which → cap → Paxton
A loss would mark the first time Republicans have lost the seat in 40 years.
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Republicans → mark → years
The Daily Mail visited Matt's Rancho Martinez on Monday afternoon, which describes itself as 'Tex-Mex Heaven,' where a few rows of wicker chairs had been set up in front of a small stage.
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rows → visit → stage
Since late last week, Paxton, the Texas attorney general, has canceled several stops on his get-out-the-vote bus tour, dubbed ‘Come and Take It’.
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Paxton → cancel → It
Events in El Paso, Texarkana and Tyler were scrapped, as was what was supposed to be his grand finale at the Alamo in San Antonio.
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what → scrap → Antonio
His campaign had billed the Alamo appearance as its pièce de résistance, comparing the famous last stand of Texans in 1836 against the Mexican army to Paxton's campaign slogan, 'When they come after Texans, Ken Paxton goes after them.
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Paxton → bill → them
'
But the Alamo event was premature talk by an overeager campaign staffer, a Paxton insider told the Daily Mail.
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insider → tell → Mail
'Apparently they never had confirmation that they were allowed,' the source explained.
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source → have → confirmation
Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton is neck and neck with James Talarico in their Texas senate race
Paxton will be making his final pitch to just a few dozen people at Matt's Rancho Martinez, a very modest Tex-Mex restaurant in suburban Dallas
Colorful Mexican papel picado hangs from the ceiling where Paxton will make his final plea to voters
The family restaurant bills itself as 'Tex-Mex Heaven'
'
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restaurant → make → Heaven
Basically, one of the guys on their team just really fetishized the idea of like, "We're gonna finish this strong at the Alamo.
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We → fetishize → Alamo
'
However, the Alamo Trust in charge of the Alamo, told a local news outlet they never had plans for an event there.
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they → tell → event
The Alamo flub is indicative of who's running Paxton's campaign, the source said, describing them as DC outsiders sent to Texas to piece together a campaign for one of the most scandal-prone politicians in the country.
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source → run → country
The Republican insider also put the blame on Paxton himself.
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insider → put → Paxton
Paxton's campaign has been plagued by missteps, including two leaked recordings in which the AG was heard criticizing Donald Trump and complaining about DC taking over his campaign.
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DC → plague → campaign
The Republican candidate was also facing serious setbacks coming into the campaign.
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candidate → face → campaign
The Daily Mail revealed last year that Paxton had cheated on his wife with Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, leading his wife to file for divorce on 'Biblical grounds.'
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Paxton → reveal → grounds
We revealed how Paxton then moved into a $2 million mansion with his mistress and took luxury trips to Iceland and London with her over the summer instead of campaigning.
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Paxton → reveal → summer
He was impeached by Texas lawmakers in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, but acquitted by the state Senate.
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He → impeach → Senate
Separately, a long-running felony securities fraud case was dropped in 2024 under a deal requiring him to complete community service, take legal ethics courses and pay restitution to investors.
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case → run → investors
Paxton denied wrongdoing in both cases.
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Paxton → deny → cases
Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton arrives for a campaign event at Cullen Yards on October 31, 2026 in Fort Worth
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 01:
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candidate → arrive → Worth
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Texas State Rep. James Talarico speaks during a Dia de los Muertos concert rally at The Espee on November 01, 2026 in San Antonio
With her then-husband Troy Duhon standing between them, Tracy Duhon (right) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (left) pose for a photo at the Kentucky Derby in May 2024
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife Angela married in 1986 after meeting at Baylor University, a Baptist university located in Waco, Texas
Many of Paxton's campaign staffers have no personal loyalty to him and are described as accepting to work for Paxton 'for the paycheck' or to try to keep the Texas senate in GOP hands, our source said.
uncertain
source → speak → hands
Meanwhile, Paxton's Democrat opponent has a staff comprised of young, die-hards, many of whom previously worked on his state legislative team.
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many → have → team
The former teacher turned politician has resisted efforts to allow the national Democratic party into his campaign, instead choosing to surround himself with young, less experienced people he can trust, an Austin lobbyist close to Talarico told the Daily Mail.
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lobbyist → turn → Mail
A November 1 poll from the New York Times/Siena College shows Talarico with 50 percent of support compared to Paxton's 43 percent.
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poll → show → percent
Going into election night, Paxton's most committed staff is calling their chances of victory 'a coin flip,' a second insider told the Daily Mail.
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insider → go → Mail
Less loyal staffers have been joking that it could be 'Paxton's funeral,' according to the source.
uncertain
it → joke → source
However, some conservatives in the Lone Star State believe the result is already decided.
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result → believe → State
In the last two weeks, Paxton hosted a fundraiser in San Antonio and organizers were worried about the turnout.
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organizers → host → turnout
A GOP operative who spoke on condition of anonymity got a call from Team Paxton asking him to rally the base.
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who → speak → base
But Bush-era Republicans declined to donate money or even attend the event.
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Republicans → decline → event
They brought up concern for Paxton because they see the writing on the wall.
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they → bring → wall
They think he's going to lose,' the politico told the Daily Mail.
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politico → think → Mail
They said things like, "I'm not trying to get on that train" or "I don't want to be associated."
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I → say → train
Many of these Reagan Republicans supported Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton thanks to Trump's endorsement in a May primary.
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who → support → primary
'Ken’s problems make a lot of people who have integrity uncomfortable,' a long-time Texas conservative added.
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conservative → make → integrity
'He’s running a horrifically bad campaign.
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He → run → campaign
The blow-by-blow of this is going to be Biblical.'
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blow → go → this
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
