Two years ago, President Trump made historic gains with Hispanic voters nationwide and won a majority of Texas Hispanics, upending conventional wisdom and setting back the Democratic Party's hopes of making the state competitive.
asserted
state → make → hopes
But now, Hispanics may be coming back.
uncertain
Hispanics → come → ?
They're frustrated with the state of the economy and concerned about the Trump administration's immigration policies.
asserted
They → frustrate → policies
These factors and Mr. Trump's sagging approval ratings are giving Democrats hope in
."There's a Hispanic hurricane coming," said Democratic strategist and CBS News political contributor Chuck Rocha, who advises the Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in Texas.
asserted
who → sag → Texas
"We just don't know quite yet if it's going to be Category 2 or Category 5, but it's washing ashore right in front of the GOP, and they don't know what to do about it.
asserted
they → know → it
But Republicans say enthusiasm for Democrats is still muted.
asserted
enthusiasm → say → Democrats
An estimated 39 million Hispanic Americans are eligible to vote, an increase of about 5.2 million since 2022, according to the Pew Research Center.
uncertain
Americans → estimate → Center
Democrats once viewed Latinos as a built-in advantage, predicting that they'd give the party an edge and make some states competitive.
asserted
states → view → edge
But in 2024, Mr. Trump won about 48% of the group, up 12 points from 2020 and 20 points from 2016, according to Pew's analysis of validated voters, largely for the same reasons Republicans are losing them now — the economy and immigration policy.
uncertain
Republicans → win → them
Mr. Trump won Hispanic men by two points, despite losing them by 17 points in 2020.
asserted
Trump → win → 2020
The gains were even more pronounced in Texas, where Mr. Trump won approximately 55% of Hispanic voters in 2024, according to exit polling, turning blue counties in the state's Rio Grande Valley region light red.
uncertain
Trump → win → region
But now, Mr. Trump's approval rating among Latinos stands at 24%, as of early October, with just 57% of Latinos who voted for the president in 2024 approving of his job performance — down from 93% in February 2025.
asserted
who → stand → February
And 51% of Latino voters said they planned to vote for a Democratic House candidate, compared to 24% who planned to vote for a Republican.
asserted
who → say → Republican
The group — which makes up more than 30% of Texas' eligible electorate — could prove pivotal in Texas' closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races.
uncertain
which → make → races
Six in 10 Hispanic voters planned to vote for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in an October CBS News poll.
asserted
voters → plan → poll
Hispanic voters favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa for governor over incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin.
asserted
voters → favor → margin
Hinojosa offered her own explanation for Mr. Trump's success with Hispanic voters in 2024 — and why they may shift back.
uncertain
they → offer → 2024
"The reason why Trump won, and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the Valley and in Texas, is because he said the system is rigged – and he's right.
asserted
he → win → Texas
Democrats had been defending a system that is indefensible, that is actually working against us," Hinojosa told CBS News.
asserted
Hinojosa → defend → News
She continued: "People feel betrayed.
asserted
People → continue → ?
In this high-cost economy, people just want to know: are you going to work to make my life easier?
asserted
life → want → economy
Greg Abbott has been in charge for 12 years, and it is harder than ever to make it in Texas."
asserted
it → make → Texas
Mr. Trump has defended his administration's record with Hispanics.
asserted
Trump → defend → Hispanics
In Corpus Christi, Texas, he touted Latinos' economic success, pointing out at a rally for Paxton and other Republicans that Hispanic American poverty fell to its lowest level in history last year, to 13.9% from 15.1% in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
uncertain
poverty → tout → Bureau
The president urged Texans to turn out for Republicans, arguing that Democratic policies would threaten the state's economy and endanger border security.
asserted
policies → urge → security
He dismisses suggestions that his support among Hispanic voters is slipping, and when asked about it, he pushed back.
asserted
he → dismiss → it
"I won Hispanics," Mr. Trump said in mid-October.
asserted
Trump → win → October
"I've done more than any other Republican in history.
asserted
I → do → history
I got tremendous Hispanics."
asserted
I → get → Hispanics
The competing messages illustrate the political stakes for both parties in Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide office since 1994 and no Democrat has won a Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
asserted
Democrat → compete → 1988
The outcome could have consequences well beyond Texas.
uncertain
outcome → have → Texas
Competitive congressional districts in California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania have substantial Latino populations, making even modest changes in voting preferences politically consequential.
asserted
changes → have → preferences
"Monolithically mad"
Rocha said, "Latinos in Texas have probably moved more right than almost any state," but added that conservative, liberal and independent Hispanics are now really concerned about the economy.
asserted
Hispanics → say → economy
"They're more monolithic than I have ever seen in my life, and they're monolithically mad," said Rocha, the president and founder of Solidarity Strategies.
asserted
Rocha → see → Strategies
Rocha said rising prices, fuel costs and affordability are driving much of that frustration — the same issues that have animated voters nationwide.
asserted
that → say → voters
He mentioned a Republican homebuilder in the Rio Grande Valley who told him that immigration enforcement had frightened construction workers, making it harder to find labor and prompting him to consider voting Democratic for the first time.
asserted
it → mention → time
But while immigration is contributing to voter dissatisfaction, he said economic concerns remain the principal motivation.
asserted
concerns → contribute → dissatisfaction
"Their first thing is always going to be prices and paycheck," he said.
asserted
he → go → ?
In Rocha's view, Hispanics have increasingly looked like swing voters, and have demonstrated a willingness to move between Democrats and Republicans.
asserted
Hispanics → look → Democrats
"It's not a realignment; it's a dealignment," Rocha said.
asserted
Rocha → say → ?
…and 56 more, not listed.
The Aporia
