What you need to know about the Election Day Voter Poll
The Voter Poll helps answer the question of who won and why.
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who → need → question
Anyone who has watched Election Day coverage in the past has probably heard anchors or analysts refer to the exit polls.
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anchors → watch → polls
For this year’s hotly contested election, ABC News will be using a new poll called the Voter Poll to help answer the critical questions of who won and why.
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who → contest → questions
The Voter Poll will also help explain what issues were important in the election and how important demographic groups voted.
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groups → help → election
The Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS, will provide much more data than before.
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Poll → conduct → data
This year there will be a Voter Poll in every state that has a Senate or governor's race, 45 in all.
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that → have → all
There will also be a National Voter Poll covering all states which will have a much larger sample size than in previous years.
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which → cover → years
But what is the Voter Poll and how will it work?
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it → work → ?
How is the Voter Poll conducted?
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Poll → conduct → ?
The Voter Poll starts by contacting likely voters just before Election Day using multiple methods, including online, mailed postcards, text message, email and phone calls.
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Poll → start → postcards
Pre-election respondents who have not voted at the time of their initial response are recontacted starting at 5 p.m. local time the day before Election Day through poll closing time in each state on Election Day.
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who → vote → Day
These recontacts confirm if the person has voted and by what method they voted along with their final vote choices.
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they → confirm → choices
In addition, traditional exit polls are also being conducted in a number of states, and these data will also be included in the Voter Poll.
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data → conduct → Poll
Exit polls are surveys conducted as voters leave their polling places on Election Day.
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voters → conduct → Day
Interviewers stand outside polling places at randomly selected precincts in the state and approach voters at specific intervals as they exit, for example every fifth or ninth voter.
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they → stand → example
Voters who agree to participate fill out a short, confidential questionnaire and place it in a ballot box.
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who → agree → box
The data from all of these methods of voter contact are then combined and appropriately weighted to provide a complete picture of all voters no matter when or how they voted.
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they → combine → voters
What sort of questions are asked in the Voter Poll?
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sort → ask → Poll
The Voter Poll questionnaire asks who people voted for, their demographics, opinions about the candidates and opinions on important issues such as the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, crime and education.
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people → ask → economy
Here's an example of a previous issue question, from 2024:
Do you think the condition of the nation's economy is:
1. Excellent
2. Good
3. Not so good
4. Poor
Are Voter Polls accurate?
The Voter Poll, like any other survey, is subject to sampling and nonsampling error.
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is → think → error
Before news organizations report Voter Poll results or make projections, they conduct in-depth quality control checks.
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they → report → checks
They compare results to pre-election polls and the voting history in the state and have statisticians and political experts carefully review the data.
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statisticians → compare → data
After the polls close, Voter Poll results are weighted using the actual vote to make the data more accurate.
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data → close → vote
Voter Polls may be used to project the winners of races where the margin between the candidates is large.
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margin → use → candidates
But most election projections are made after the polls close based on actual vote data.
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polls → make → data
When will Voter Poll results be reported?
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results → report → ?
After the polls close in a state, the complete Voter Poll crosstabs (which are data tables showing how a variety of subgroups have voted) will be posted on ABCNews.com.
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variety → close → ABCNews.com
ABC News will not project a winner until the last scheduled poll closing time in each state.
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News → project → state
If a race is not projected at poll closing time, the projection will incorporate actual vote data and will be made as soon as the data warrant.
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data → project → data
Information will be constantly updated throughout the evening on ABCNews.com and on all ABC News programs.
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Information → update → programs
The Aporia
