Often these days, when the government has a big announcement and just before the relevant minister starts to give the details in a statement to MPs, Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, erupts with fury and rants and raves at the Treasury bench about how all the main points have already been leaked to the media, in contravention of the ministerial code.
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points → have → code
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, will this afternoon unveil the final version of her plans to make foreign workers wait longer before they can apply for indefinite leave to remain, and we know relatively little about what she will say.
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she → unveil → what
The original plans were unveiled last November and they would require most workers to wait 10 years, not five, for ILR, with care workers having to wait 15 years.
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workers → unveil → years
They would also apply to foreign workers already here, not just new arrivals.
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They → apply → workers
These proposals were hugely controversial, and Andy Burnham himself was among the ministers arguing that care workers should be treated more kindly.
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workers → argue → ministers
As Jessica Elgot and Chris Osuh report in our overnight story, there has been some sort of climbdown in relation to care workers.
But it also seems to be the case that the broad thrust of the plan is being retained and that ILR rules are being toughened in a way that will affect hundreds of thousands of people.
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that → seem → people
The detail, which is coming after 3.30pm, will be crucial; so will the reaction of Labour MPs.
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reaction → come → MPs
When Mahmood announced these plans last autumn, some government backbenchers were horrified.
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backbenchers → announce → plans
At the time Reform UK had a lead of more than 10 points over Labour in the polls and Mahmood – who was arguing that net migration was too high and that low-skilled foreign workers ended up being a burden on the taxpayer (a key Reform UK claim, although one contested by experts) – was pushing at an open door.
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workers → have → door
The electoral threat from Nigel Farage has receded quite a lot.
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threat → recede → Farage
And net migration is falling like a stone.
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migration → fall → stone
To implement the ILR changes, Mahmood does not need primary legislation and that means there will be no chance for potential Labour rebels to amend the plans in the Commons.
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rebels → implement → Commons
But it has been reported that more than 100 MPs are queasy about what is being planned.
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what → report → ?
And Andy Burnham himself has accepted that the context has changed.
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context → accept → ?
We won’t hear from him until much later, because he is spending most of the day on a flight to the Commonwealth summit.
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he → hear → summit
But, in an interview for an ITV documentary being broadcast tomorrow, he declined to say that net migration was too high.
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migration → broadcast → documentary
When Keir Starmer was PM, he regularly did say this, and that he wanted immigration to fall “significantly”.
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immigration → say → this
Burnham told ITV small boat crossing numbers were “too high, for certain”.
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numbers → tell → ITV
However, asked about legal migration, he replied:
It’s come right down.
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It → ask → migration
And I think when you have planned migration, it’s difficult to say is it too high or too low, because it’s got to be, if you like, following gaps in the economy.
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you → think → economy
Burnham said legal migration had “come right down”.
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migration → say → ?
He declined to be drawn on whether it had to come down further.
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it → decline → ?
This means that Mahmood will today be defending plans drawn up in response to a problem that some might argue no longer exists.
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some → mean → problem
However, speaking in the Commons last November, Mahmood argued she had to do something about the “so-called Boriswave, specifically the cohort of lower-qualified workers who – along with their dependants – entered the country through the health and care visa” because some of them were “never expected to be net economic contributors”, making “more stringent” controls needed.
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controls → speak → them
Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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Street → hold → briefing
Danny Kruger, Reform UK’s head of government preparations, gives a speech to the Policy Exchange thinktank.
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Kruger → give → thinktank
Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
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Rayner → take → Commons
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, gives her statement on the changes to indefinite leave to remain rules.
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Mahmood → give → leave
Andy Burnham arrives in Antigua for the Commonwealth summit.
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Burnham → arrive → summit
Also, at some point today Labour will give an update on how many power-sharing agreements at council level with Greens will continue, in the light of Labour HQ saying recently Labour councillors should only continue to work with local Green parties willing to disown the “Zionism is racism” motion passed at the Green conference.
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Zionism → give → conference
I’m afraid we are no longer able to have comments open below the line every day on this blog.
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comments → ’m → blog
If you want to contact me, please email politics.live@theguardian.com.
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you → want → politics.live@theguardian.com
You can use this email to flag up corrections, comments for publication, questions or complaints.
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You → use → publication
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