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How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner: A bluffer’s guide to punting (and the coveted trifecta)

Read the original at The Sydney Morning Herald ↗
Cite

Kennelly, H. (2026, November 2). How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner: A bluffer’s guide to punting (and the coveted trifecta). The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/how-to-pick-a-melbourne-cup-winner-a-bluffer-s-guide-to-punting-and-the-coveted-trifecta-20261102-p61acl.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-11-02 · by Hannah Kennelly

Quick Summary

The article provides a guide for choosing a winner in the Melbourne Cup, focusing on factors like jockey colors, barrier numbers, and horse characteristics. Blue-jacketed jockeys have won 40 times, while black silks have produced 25 victories. Barrier five and eleven are historically successful, with nine wins each. Horses carrying 51 to 53 kilograms tend to perform well, though heavier weights have occasionally led to victories. The article also notes that bay-colored horses have dominated in recent years, and it advises consulting racing experts for further insights.
Written by AI on 2026-11-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The 2026 Melbourne Cup is drawing near, and punters are gearing up to select their winning horses. Veteran bettors spend hours analyzing form guides, while newcomers might choose based on favorite numbers or colors. Jockeys wearing blue silks have won the Cup 40 times, making it a popular choice for those picking winners by color. Barrier positions 11 and 5 are tied as the most successful in Melbourne Cup history, each producing nine winners. Additionally, Jamie Melham's victory last year with Half Yours, who wore blue and black silks, highlights the significance of choosing winning jockeys and colors.

Written for “Melbourne Cup Betting Guide” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Melbourne Cup Betting Guide
Sports · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
66
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
3%
2 of 66 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-02 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5806 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Hannah Kennelly
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Hannah Kennelly
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Hannah Kennelly →

Topics

Australia Cup Half Yours Melbourne Cup the Melbourne Cup

Subjects

Verry Elleegant PERSON · 4× Danny Russell PERSON · 2× Geelong GPE · 2× Peter Ryan PERSON · 2× Americain ORG · 1× Australia GPE · 1× Blackwood PERSON · 1× Dolan PERSON · 1× Jamie Melham’s PERSON · 1× Robbie Dolan’s PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Tommy Berry is back on board for the first time since that run, which is a good thing because the mid-race move in the Caulfield Cup ruined the horse’s chance, but he stuck on well to finish eighth. I think Middle Earth would still be gasping in a paddock had he run an ultra-marathon.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-02
🔮 Some veteran punters like to spend hours studying the form guides, while newcomers might opt for their favourite number, silk colour, a name they like or rely on superstitions. But what does the data say?
2026-11-02 · The Sydney Morning Herald
How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner: A bluffer’s guide to punting (and the coveted trifecta) · assertive framing

Claims (66 extracted, 2 hedged)

It’s the race that stops the nation – but how do you actually select a Melbourne Cup winner? asserted
you → ’ → winner
Some veteran punters like to spend hours studying the form guides, while newcomers might opt for their favourite number, silk colour, a name they like or rely on superstitions. But what does the data say? uncertain
data → like → what
Which barrier number has the most wins in Flemington history and are you better off picking a gelding or a mare? asserted
you → have → gelding
Here’s our guide to help you navigate Australia’s greatest race. asserted
you → ’ → race
Which silks have the most wins? asserted
silks → have → wins
For first-time punters, one of the easiest ways to pick a horse is to choose a jockey based on your favourite colour. asserted
one → pick → colour
If blue is not your favourite colour, then you may need to consider switching. uncertain
you → need → ?
Jockeys who wear blue silks have won the Cup 40 times. asserted
who → wear → Cup
Perhaps that was Jamie Melham’s secret to winning the Melbourne Cup last year. asserted
that → win → Cup
The jockey rode Half Yours to victory in 2025 and wore a combination of blue and black silks. asserted
jockey → ride → silks
Let’s talk numbers If you’re numerically inclined, you can always pick a horse based on weight, barrier or saddle-cloth number. asserted
you → let → weight
Barriers 11 and five are the equal-most successful in Melbourne Cup history, producing nine winners each. asserted
Barriers → produce → winners
Dolan had originally drawn barrier six, but he and his mount were moved to barrier five after a late scratching. asserted
he → draw → scratching
Meanwhile, barrier 11 has been in a drought since Americain won in 2010. asserted
Americain → win → 2010
Barrier eight has also had some success, with Half Yours winning from there last year. asserted
Half → have → success
Verry Elleegant broke barrier 18’s duck in 2021 and barrier seven hasn’t produced a Cup winner since Blackwood in 1924. asserted
barrier → break → 1924
It has 12 wins, the last victor being Verry Elleegant, ridden by James McDonald. asserted
victor → have → McDonald
No.12 and No.1 have a history of success, and no one has ridden No.18 to victory since Peter Pan in 1932. asserted
one → have → 1932
Horses carrying 51 to 51.5 kilograms typically have a good record in the race, but the most common weight carried to victory is 53 kilograms, with nine wins. asserted
weight → carry → wins
During the past 36 years, only Makybe Diva in 2005 has carried 58 kilograms or more to victory. asserted
Diva → carry → victory
Verry Elleegant was pretty close, carrying 57 kilograms to victory in 2021. asserted
Elleegant → carry → 2021
Other fun facts to inform your decision - Only three fillies and 12 mares (female horses) have won the Cup. asserted
fillies → inform → Cup
Verry Elleegant in 2021 was the first since Makybe Diva, which won three consecutive Cups from 2003 to 2005. asserted
which → win → 2005
- The colour bay – a reddish-brown coat – has produced 13 of the past 16 winners. asserted
bay → produce → winners
- Only six grey horses have ever won the Melbourne Cup. asserted
horses → win → Cup
- Horses whose names start with the letters I, Q, U, X and Y have never won the Melbourne Cup. asserted
names → start → Cup
Look to the experts If all else fails, you can also rely on some advice from our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan, who have picked apart the Cup field in search of the perfect tips for the coveted trifecta. asserted
who → look → trifecta
Meanwhile, our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan pull apart the Melbourne Cup field in search of tipping the coveted trifecta. asserted
writers → pull → trifecta
Hey Pete, I understand you’ve been scoping out Werribee Racecourse for some inside mail on the internationals. asserted
you → understand → internationals
Are we jumping on the big spruik horse Point Of Law? asserted
we → jump → Law
Ethan Brown was riding him at Werribee on Sunday as he prepares for the big race, which is only the sixth in his career and the second since his impressive Geelong Cup win. asserted
which → rid → win
Point Of Law has been impressive and is working well, but I think he will start too short to back, given his lack of race experience and the certainty that he will be pushed much harder on Tuesday than he was in Geelong. asserted
he → work → Geelong
He will finish in the top 10, but that’s where my enthusiasm ends. asserted
enthusiasm → finish → top
I’ve definitely got him top four because no one has dominated in Geelong like that since Gary Ablett jnr strutted his stuff at GMHBA Stadium. asserted
jnr → get → Stadium
But surely something else piqued your interest in your Sunday morning reconnaissance mission? asserted
something → pique → mission
I’m not that excited about the internationals to be honest, Danny. asserted
I → ’m → internationals
Unfortunately, stewards withdrew the Japanese horse Stinger Glass because I think he had an edge on Joseph O’Brien’s chances. asserted
he → withdraw → chances
But you can’t have a trifecta without one of O’Brien’s included. asserted
one → have → O’Brien
I’m looking at Sons And Lovers as a placegetter while last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes will run a big race. asserted
up → look → race
JP McManus is going to launch her at the Call of Card. asserted
McManus → go → Card
…and 26 more, not listed.
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