Mark Carney’s plan to monetize Canada’s four biggest airports — Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary — seems to be on a fast track, with recent reports that Vancouver is first on the list.
asserted
Vancouver → monetize → list
The government’s argument in favour of the sale has boiled down to empty-calorie finance terms like “asset optimization” and “unlocking value.”
asserted
argument → boil → optimization
I have learned the hard way that when you hear terms like that, you’d better do the math.
asserted
you → learn → math
Given the risks of getting an airport deal wrong and the unpopularity of the idea, the math better be very compelling.
asserted
math → give → idea
Canada’s airports have been run by non-profit corporations since the 1990s.
asserted
airports → run → 1990s
They pay the federal government a percentage of revenues, often referred to as “ground rent.”
asserted
They → pay → rent
Capital investments in the airports — over $30B since 1992 — have been paid for by passenger fees and profits.
asserted
investments → pay → fees
Ground rent from the four biggest airports was about $477M in 2025 and has been growing at about 6 per cent a year for the last decade.
asserted
rent → grow → decade
“Unlocking value” usually means selling cash flow that’s worth more to someone else than it is to you.
asserted
it → unlock → you
In this case, the cash flow is the $477M in ground rent currently paid to the government, and any additional revenue a private sector operator could get from running the airports in a different way.
uncertain
operator → pay → way
The ground rent is quite easy to value.
asserted
rent → value → ?
The government could use the cash flow to borrow money, in the same way that salary is used to get a mortgage on a house.
uncertain
salary → use → house
Assuming continued 6 per cent growth, it could raise about $18 billion at current government interest rates and repay the whole thing in 30 years.
uncertain
it → assume → years
A more conservative assumption of 4 per cent growth nets $14 billion.
asserted
assumption → net → billion
Unfortunately, that cash flow isn’t worth more to potential investors — it’s worth less.
asserted
it → ’ → investors
The government’s cost of capital is lower than everyone else’s, so when investors value the ground rent, it will come to a lower number.
asserted
it → value → number
That means, to get to the “tens of billions” Mark Carney has promised from airport monetization, it will come down to the rest of the deal.
asserted
it → mean → deal
That is where the real risks lie.
asserted
risks → lie → ?
Australia is the standard example of deals like this gone wrong, as the sale of leases to run their major airports led to significantly higher prices for passengers.
asserted
sale → go → passengers
Airports are local monopolies, which gives them the power to jack up prices on things like coffee and parking because people have no other choice.
asserted
people → give → choice
The Prime Minister has been clear that the government knows there have been bad airport deals done in other countries and will “apply those lessons” to its airport negotiations.
asserted
government → know → negotiations
But the government is going to be massively outgunned by Canadian pension funds, who will almost certainly be leading these investments.
asserted
who → go → investments
They have a limitless budget for Bay Street’s top lawyers and have argued that their fiduciary responsibility is to their members, not the country.
asserted
responsibility → have → members
While Mr. Carney has advocated for “bringing home” the pension funds’ extensive international investment experience in airports, that experience gives them a huge advantage in securing a good deal for themselves.
asserted
experience → advocate → themselves
In a commercial negotiation between the government and the pension funds, it’s not entirely clear why anyone should expect taxpayers to come out ahead.
asserted
taxpayers → ’ → government
Getting to a deal is not just risky, but costly.
asserted
Getting → get → deal
Government resources will need to be used both for negotiation and for new legislation allowing for private sector operation.
asserted
resources → need → operation
It will also require political capital.
asserted
It → require → capital
A deal that nets tens of billions of dollars will mean concessions to investors that will have to be sold to a public that is already opposed to airport privatization.
asserted
that → net → privatization
While no one questions the work ethic of Mark Carney and his team, their capacity is not limitless and the opportunity cost is real.
asserted
cost → question → Carney
It’s not even clear private sector management will improve airport operations.
asserted
management → ’ → operations
Studies comparing public and private airport operations have had mixed results, and of the top 10 airports in the world for customer experience, according to Skytrax, only two are run by for-profit operators.
uncertain
two → compare → operators
In fact, Vancouver ranks 10th — highest of any airport in North America — operating under the current Canadian model.
asserted
Vancouver → rank → model
Adding all this up, it’s really hard to make the privatization math make sense.
asserted
math → add → sense
A recent University of Calgary report estimated the value of the airport concessions at $18 billion to $29 billion.
asserted
report → estimate → billion
The government could “unlock” most of that amount just by borrowing against current airport cash flow, expending almost no resources and taking on no risk.
uncertain
government → unlock → risk
The money could be available almost immediately, and applied to shovel-ready projects before negotiations with the pension funds really get underway.
uncertain
negotiations → apply → funds
The government could call that “asset and resource optimization” and no one would argue.
uncertain
one → call → that
Canada is in the midst of negotiating a landmark new relationship with the EU, a trade war with the United States, the biggest military procurement program since the Second World War and a host of nation-building infrastructure projects.
asserted
Canada → negotiate → projects
With so much on its plate and attractive alternatives available, the question for the government on airport privatization must certainly be this: why are we doing this again?
asserted
we → do → this
The Aporia
