When the Jacksonville Jaguars kick off against the Indianapolis Colts today, only about 42,500 fans will be inside EverBank Stadium.
asserted
fans → kick → Stadium
Jacksonville taxpayers are committing $775 million to renovate the Jaguars' stadium.
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taxpayers → commit → stadium
Democratic Mayor Donna Deegan closed the deal, and the Jacksonville City Council approved it in June 2024.
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Council → close → June
But the talks started under her Republican predecessor, Lenny Curry, whose administration negotiated a memorandum of understanding with the team in May 2023 that would have split the cost of the stadium and surrounding development 50–50.
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that → start → stadium
Curry later urged the council to pass Deegan's version, calling it a "win for taxpayers."
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Curry → urge → taxpayers
An August 2023 study by Tourism Economics, commissioned by the Jaguars, projected $21.7 billion in economic impact between 2028 and 2052.
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study → commission → 2028
That figure starts with $10.3 billion in direct spending such as team payroll, marketing, and event operations, then adds estimates of what suppliers and employees would spend in turn across the local economy.
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suppliers → start → economy
Deegan herself later touted a $26 billion impact over the 30-year lease.
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Deegan → tout → lease
Studies like these are often "PR missives meant to provide pretend numbers that elected officials can use as an excuse for handing over hundreds of millions of tax dollars to a private sports owner," Neil deMause of Field of Schemes tells Reason.
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deMause → mean → Reason
The Jaguars' own study, already being shown to be generous and overpromising on several elements, backs up deMause's assessment.
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study → show → assessment
The study attributes about $700 million over 25 years to "mega events visitor & operator spending."
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study → attribute → spending
Its examples include the Super Bowl, the NFL Draft, and College Football Playoff games.
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examples → include → Bowl
Yet in October 2025, Jaguars owner Shahid Khan told the British sports outlet talkSPORT:
A Super Bowl now has really graduated to [an] event where it needs infrastructure besides the stadium, hotel rooms, infrastructure, and so on, and Jacksonville doesn't have that.
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Jacksonville → tell → that
It does have the ability to host other NFL events, maybe the draft, and maybe some other elements, but the city will have to develop before we can be in the mix.
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we → have → mix
That Jacksonville lacks enough premium hotel space for a Super Bowl is hardly news.
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lacks → lack → Bowl
The city docked cruise ships downtown to house visitors for Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005.
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city → dock → 2005
Khan himself said in 2016 that a Super Bowl in Jacksonville was "absolutely not" happening.
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Bowl → say → Jacksonville
Putting the Super Bowl in the study anyway, years after the team's own owner ruled it out, is exactly the kind of thing that makes people side-eye stadium economic impact projections.
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people → put → projections
Downtown Jacksonville's lack of premium hotel space was part of the reason the city gave Khan an incentives deal worth up to $82 million in taxpayer grants for a luxury Four Seasons hotel, part of a roughly $134 million incentives package for his riverfront development across from the stadium.
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city → give → stadium
The deal was first approved under Curry in 2021 and expanded again in 2025 under Deegan.
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deal → approve → Deegan
Reason asked J.C. Bradbury, an economist at Kennesaw State University, whether Jacksonville taxpayers should be subsidizing a hotel from a chain whose Orlando location charges over $1,700 a night.
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location → ask → 1,700
Bradbury responded that "providing 'incentives' to the billionaire owner's hotels across the street is not defensible public policy."
The study's attendance forecast raises another question about the project's economic promise.
Tourism Economics projects 848,100 attendees a year, with Jaguars home games accounting for 62 percent of that total.
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games → respond → total
That leaves roughly 322,000 annual attendees at other events.
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That → leave → events
The annual Florida-Georgia college football game and Monster Jam would account for two sellouts of approximately 70,000 attendees each.
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game → account → attendees
The Gator Bowl, played around New Year's, has fallen on hard times; its last two games each drew fewer than 32,000 fans.
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games → play → fans
And in 2024, the stadium hosted three concerts that drew about 50,000 people each.
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that → host → people
At those attendance levels, pre-existing events alone would account for nearly all of the non-Jaguars attendance the study projects for the renovated stadium.
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study → account → stadium
Bradbury was blunt in his assessment of the study's methodology: "Of course it includes projections regarding future games that it might not host.
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it → include → that
Of course the renovation of an existing stadium shouldn't count subsequent activity as new."
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renovation → exist → activity
He went further, calling the study "propaganda."
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He → go → study
"The goal," he said, "is to concoct a big number, not an accurate number."
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he → say → number
Perhaps the most galling fact is that Jaguars fans will see their team play only six regular-season games at home this season.
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team → see → home
The Jaguars have long been the NFL's primary London team, playing there every year since 2013 (except 2020 due to the pandemic).
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Jaguars → play → pandemic
This year, though, the team shipped not one but two home games overseas, using the renovation as an excuse.
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team → ship → excuse
That makes sense for the bottom line.
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That → make → line
But for a Super Bowl contender in a crowded American Football Conference, a de facto 11-road-game schedule could be the difference between hosting a playoff game and traveling to one.
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schedule → host → one
Next year, the city gets no Jaguars games at all.
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city → get → games
The team will play its 2027 home games in Orlando during the stadium renovations, and the Florida-Georgia game, one of the existing events the study counts on, is in Atlanta this year and in Tampa the next.
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study → play → Tampa
So here is what $775 million buys Jacksonville so far: six home games over two years and a $21.7 billion promise built partly on a Super Bowl the team's own owner says the city can't host.
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city → buy → Bowl
The Aporia
