What's it like to run for Congress when the odds are stacked heavily against you?
asserted
odds → run → you
Much ink has been spilled this election cycle about the competitive races that could determine which party controls Congress.
But tossup districts represent only a fraction of congressional races.
uncertain
districts → spill → races
The vast majority — 80% — are rated solid Republican or solid Democrat.
asserted
majority → rat → ?
Candidates running against the political grain face an uphill battle, with campaigns marked by limited resources, dwindling donors, and scarce staff.
asserted
campaigns → run → resources
What's it like to run for Congress when political wisdom says you'll probably lose?
asserted
you → run → Congress
It's a question Lisa Kinney has heard again and again.
asserted
Kinney → hear → ?
She's running as a Democrat for the lone House seat in Wyoming.
asserted
She → run → Wyoming
Since the late 1970s, it has only sent Republicans to Congress.
asserted
it → send → Congress
"I don't think the people of Wyoming always hear both sides," Kinney says during a day of campaigning in Casper.
asserted
Kinney → think → Casper
"I'm glad to give another opinion.
asserted
I → give → opinion
You wouldn't know it from an ad from her opponent that places her next to progressive figures Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
asserted
that → know → Vermont
Kinney says she finds it funny, albeit bemusing.
asserted
it → say → ?
"What's he thinking — that we all get together and do socialist stuff?" she chuckles as she walks into Johnny J's to talk to early risers.
asserted
she → think → risers
After perusing the pecan and cinnamon rolls, Kinney makes her way through the crowded diner.
asserted
Kinney → peruse → diner
She's met with some hasty "nopes" from people who want to keep politics away from their pancakes — along with a gentleman who says he can't support a party that doesn't back Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a woman who doesn't like Democrats' stance on trans issues.
asserted
who → meet → issues
Then she meets Joe Beck, who doesn't identify with either party.
asserted
who → meet → party
He says he's fed up with the Trump administration, but is skeptical Kinney could make a difference.
uncertain
Kinney → say → difference
"How are you going to turn things around?" he asks, eyebrows raised.
asserted
eyebrows → go → things
"You need a person in there — that's me — who's a moderate who can talk to Republicans, who can talk to Democrats," she says.
asserted
she → need → Democrats
"I swear to you we're going to make a difference."
asserted
we → swear → difference
They chat for 10 minutes.
asserted
They → chat → minutes
At the end, he says he's actually already voted for her — but he's not optimistic.
asserted
he → say → her
You have an uphill battle.
asserted
You → have → battle
This is the reddest state in the nation," he warns.
asserted
he → warn → nation
"I applaud you — but there's a tsunami coming at you on the first Tuesday in November."
asserted
I → applaud → November
Mounting a run with little party infrastructure means no campaign office for Kinney, a former state senator.
asserted
Mounting → mount → Kinney
It means just a handful of "helpers" across the state and countless hours on the road to spread her message of preserving public lands and lowering health care costs.
asserted
It → mean → costs
"It's really tiring — but we have to see as many people as we can," she says.
asserted
she → have → people
"If they can meet me, they feel more comfortable voting for me."
asserted
they → meet → me
Rodney Lang, Kinney's husband, says a win for them is more than just the election day results.
asserted
win → say → results
"If we lose, the good news is the party's stronger, and we think we've contributed to that," he says.
asserted
he → lose → that
Kinney calls herself a realist and says she knows many in the state will vote for whoever has an "R" next to their name.
asserted
whoever → call → name
"But I always have it in my mind that I can win," she adds.
asserted
she → have → mind
'You can't just give it the ole college try'
asserted
You → give → try
Two thousand miles away, George Austin, a home builder and former football coach, says he feels a sense of kinship with Kinney.
asserted
he → say → Kinney
"I applaud, I admire, I empathize, I commiserate with anyone and everyone who is in the same boat," he says.
asserted
he → applaud → boat
The pair are flip sides of the same coin; Kinney a speck of blue running in a red state, and Austin a Republican running in the Democratic stronghold of Connecticut.
asserted
Austin → run → Connecticut
They see up close a dynamic that has been brewing for some time — deep partisan entrenchment in states.
asserted
that → see → states
"In this Congress, there are 19 state delegations comprised of only representatives and senators from the same political party," said Eric Ostermeier, founder of the nonpartisan political news site Smart Politics.
asserted
Ostermeier → be → site
"That is a high watermark for nearly three quarters of a century — 1953 is the last time we saw numbers that high."
asserted
we → see → numbers
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
