The leading chances for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup have enjoyed mixed fortunes at the barrier draw this evening.
asserted
chances → lead → draw
Point Of Law retains favouritism after coming up with barrier 9, while a draw of 18 has prompted a slight drift for Irish runner Trustyourinstinct, who'll be partnered by James McDonald fresh off a four-timer on Derby Day.
asserted
who → retain → Day
- 6yo gelding (Great Britain)
- Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
The honour of topweight this year goes to Sons And Lovers, one of five horses in the race for Irish trainer Joseph O'Brien who won the Cup with Rekindling in 2017.
A consistent stayer across his 19-start career, Sons And Lovers began 2026 with a narrow victory over 3,000 metres in Saudi Arabia, and in July claimed the Prix Maurice de Nieuil (2,800m) in Paris where he took the lead from the start and refused to be passed.
asserted
he → go → start
The six-year-old rounded off his Cup preparations with a second in the Kilternan Stakes (2,414m) in Ireland; behind him that day were stablemates and fellow Cup rivals James J Braddock and Goodie Two Shoes.
asserted
Braddock → round → him
Sons And Lovers has the services of Dylan Browne McMonagle, whose initial Cup mount Defiantly was withdrawn by stewards on Saturday after failing a vet inspection.
asserted
mount → have → inspection
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Trustyourinstinct is a winner of two races this year in his native Ireland, including the Curragh Cup (2,816m) where he defeated one-time 2025 Cup favourite Al Riffa.
asserted
he → include → Riffa
His final run before heading Down Under was a well-held fourth when no match for star stayer Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger (2,816m) in September.
asserted
run → head → September
Trustyourinstinct seems to produce his best when he's held up for a final sprint, and he'll have no better jockey than James McDonald to present him at the right time on Tuesday.
asserted
he → seem → Tuesday
McDonald, a winner aboard Verry Elleegant in 2020, will be sporting the famous green and yellow silks of JP McManus, whose major victories include the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National.
asserted
victories → sport → Cup
- 7yo gelding (Australia)
- Jockey: Robbie Dolan
- Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Knight's Choice and his singing jockey Robbie Dolan landed a shock victory at $91 in 2024 and they're back for an encore; note that only the great Peter Pan (1932, 1934) has won non-consecutive Cups.
asserted
Pan → land → Cups
The now seven-year-old had been sidelined by injury after his famous Cup triumph, but he looked to be getting back into form with a close third behind the well-rated Pinhole in the Herbert Power Stakes (2,400m) on October 10.
asserted
he → sideline → October
However he was never a factor in an incident-packed Caulfield Cup (2,400m) a week later, finishing 14th behind Kingswood beaten 10 lengths.
asserted
he → pack → Kingswood
Improvement is expected back to Flemington but once again Knight's Choice will be an outsider — anyone else sensing some déjà vu?
asserted
Choice → expect → vu
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Middle Earth (insert Tolkien reference here) finished third for Ciaron Maher last year and has been building towards a second Cup tilt with five unplaced runs this campaign.
asserted
Earth → insert → runs
The seven-year-old made ground from well back in the Caulfield Cup (2,400m) to finish ninth, beaten 5.4 lengths behind Kingswood, Saint George and Enfjaar.
A week later he had his final Cup lead-up with a seven-length eight behind Cosmic Crusader in the Cox Plate (2,040m).
asserted
he → make → Plate
Middle Earth wasn't suited by the race shape on that occasion and is much better preferred back to a 3,200-metre handicap in the hands of two-time Cup winner Mark Zahra (Gold Trip 2022, Without A Fight 2023).
asserted
Earth → suit → 2023
Punters know this former Irish-trained galloper well, as he's helped them part with their money in the past three Melbourne Cups (14th 2023, 11th 2024, sixth 2025).
asserted
them → know → Cups
Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have given Vauban a more European preparation for this year's race, having just the one run since his third in the Doomben Cup (2,000m) in May.
uncertain
Waterhouse → give → May
Just under a fortnight ago Vauban was only fair when ninth, beaten 6.2 lengths, behind Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup (2,400m).
asserted
Vauban → beat → Cup
He'll derive extra fitness from that run and appreciate any give in the surface on Tuesday as he attempts to become the first nine-year-old to win the Cup.
asserted
he → derive → Cup
Trainer: Roger Varian
The winner of five from 17 starts, the English-trained Enfjaar only had his first test over a staying trip in August, reaching a career peak when leading all the way in the Glorious Stakes (2,412m) at Goodwood.
asserted
Enfjaar → train → Goodwood
One runner behind him that day, Opportunity, has formlines through Cup contender Hopewell Rock, who has form tied to Small Fry, who ran a strong second to Cup favourite Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup (2,400m) — still with me?
asserted
who → have → me
At his first Australian appearance Enfjaar took up a handy position and fought bravely in the straight to finish third behind Kingswood in the Caulfield Cup (2,400m) and ahead of eventual Cox Plate winner Cosmic Crusader.
asserted
Enfjaar → take → Crusader
Provided he can see out the extra distance on Tuesday, Enfjaar should give a good showing for trainer Roger Varian, whose previous Cup runner My Ambivalent finished 17th in 2014.
asserted
runner → provide → 2014
- 6yo gelding (Ireland)
- Jockey: Ben Allen
- Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Royal Supremacy will certainly appreciate any rain to soften the track in his bid to improve on a 15th-place finish in last year's Cup.
asserted
Supremacy → appreciate → Cup
The six-year-old ended his last campaign with a dominant all-the-way win in Brisbane's rich Q22 (2,200m) ahead of Melbourne Cup winners Half Yours and Knight's Choice.
asserted
old → end → winners
The signs were good when he again led from start to finish in the JRA Cup (2,000m) in September, but he blotted his copybook using the same tactics in Caulfield Cup (2,400m) when he weakened noticeably to finish 15th, beaten 17 lengths by Kingswood.
asserted
he → lead → Kingswood
Punters rate Royal Supremacy the outsider of trainer Ciaron Maher's seven runners, and he'll be a second Melbourne Cup ride for Ben Allen, who finished sixth aboard Thomas Hobson in 2017.
asserted
who → rate → 2017
Trainer: Harry Charlton
The prize for the most eye-catching jockey silks certainly goes to Wine Dark Sea, the design of which is the brainchild of his majority owner, Brisbane roofer Sonny Glebe.
asserted
design → catch → owner
Wine Dark Sea won three of four starts in England this year, including the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2,671m) when he made all from the front and lowered the colours of the highly regarded Dubai Honour, a regular visitor (and winner) Down Under.
asserted
he → win → Honour
At his first Australian appearance in the Caulfield Cup (2,400m), Wine Dark Sea was forced to race wide early and hit the front rounding the turn but weakened in the closing stages to finish 11th, beaten 6.6 lengths, behind Kingswood and Cup rival Enfjaar.
asserted
Sea → force → Kingswood
The lightly raced five-year-old will likely derive a fitness benefit from the outing and has the services of Damian Lane, who is searching for his first Cup win.
asserted
who → race → win
- 8yo gelding (New Zealand)
- Jockey: Jye McNeil
- Trainer: Chris Waller
Asterix's only start over 3,200 metres was a fourth in the 2024 Auckland Cup before he crossed the Tasman to join the stable of 2021 Cup winner Chris Waller.
asserted
he → cross → Waller
Fast-forward to 2026 and Asterix scored three victories at Group and Listed level last campaign, but so far this spring his best performance was a third behind Cup rival Zahrann in the Naturalism Stakes (2,000m).
asserted
performance → score → Stakes
Asterix was a distant last on a heavy track behind Cosmic Crusader in the Turnbull Stakes (2,000m), and then made minor headway from the back of the field when 12th, beaten 7.1 lengths, behind Kingswood in the Caulfield Cup (2,400m).
asserted
Asterix → make → Cup
The punters aren't giving this veteran much of a chance, and history looms against him as only three eight-year-olds (Toryboy 1865, Catalogue 1938 and Twilight Payment 2020) have won the great race.
asserted
olds → give → race
- 8yo mare (Ireland)
- Jockey: Wayne Lordan
- Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Goodie Two Shoes has only had four runs since her brave second behind Half Yours in last year's Cup when a $41 chance for Irish trainer Joseph O'Brien.
Racing in the famous green and yellow silks of JP McManus, she scored a narrow victory in the Lillie Langtry Stakes (2,816m) at Goodwood in August.
asserted
she → have → August
But the eight-year-old then raced well below her best and trailed the field behind Cup rivals Sons And Lovers and James J Braddock in the Kilternan Stakes (2,414m).
asserted
old → race → Stakes
Nevertheless she has made the trip Down Under.
asserted
she → make → trip
Goodie Two Shoes is being asked to carry 3.5kg more than last year, and to her credit, of the 50 mares to run in the Cup since 2005, she is one of only three — High Emocean (2022) and Verry Elleegant (2021) being the others — to have finished top three.
asserted
Emocean → ask → three
…and 50 more, not listed.
The Aporia
