- Published
The breaking news from Spain this week was shocking but also shockingly familiar: another collision on the high-speed rail line south from Madrid, with reports of dozens killed.
asserted
news → publish → dozens
It is just nine months since two trains crashed near Cordoba, killing 46 people.
asserted
trains → crash → people
Now 69 bodies have been recovered here in central Spain, from wreckage strewn over the tracks and down an embankment.
asserted
bodies → recover → embankment
But it is also a national disaster that has shattered confidence in the country's rail network and the Socialist-led government of Pedro Sánchez.
asserted
that → shatter → Sánchez
It is playing out just weeks before the snap general election he called.
asserted
he → play → election
The formal investigation into the Toledo train disaster has only just been launched but the government has been quick to take control of the narrative.
asserted
government → launch → narrative
From the first hours after the collision, Transport Minister Oscar Puente began suggesting "human error" was to blame, batting responsibility as far as possible from the cabinet.
asserted
error → begin → cabinet
On Friday, he appeared before the press for a second time to set out what he called the "objective facts" of the crash and counter a surge of criticism against the government.
asserted
he → appear → government
The opposition People's Party (PP) is among those calling for his resignation as a "moral" and "ethical" move.
asserted
Party → call → move
Instead after expressing "huge pain and sadness" for the victims, Puente went on the offensive.
asserted
Puente → express → offensive
He rejected talk of chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and insisted that Spain's high-speed signalling safety system, the LZB, was neither old nor inadequate: Germany and Austria use the same.
asserted
Germany → reject → same
In Spain, it has already failed 170 times so far this year, he revealed, but called that "normal" and around the EU average.
asserted
he → fail → average
The problem surrounds what happens next - when the system fails and control of the line shifts to manual.
asserted
control → surround → manual
In this case, the minister highlighted a series of human errors that proved catastrophic.
asserted
that → highlight → errors
Crucially, at one point a controller instructed a stalled train to restart, clearing it to advance at up to 160km/h (100 mph) even though a second train was stuck on the line up ahead.
asserted
train → instruct → line
The impending collision was clear from audio calls and on big screens in the control centre in Madrid.
asserted
collision → impend → Madrid
"They worked.
asserted
They → work → ?
We checked.
asserted
We → check → ?
They could see what was happening," Puente confirmed.
uncertain
Puente → see → ?
But the advancing train was never ordered to stop.
"
asserted
train → advance → ?
So would he take personal and political responsibility anyway, and resign?
asserted
he → take → responsibility
Puente called it his "duty", rather, to remain as minister.
asserted
Puente → call → minister
"I'll face up to things, explain, elucidate," he countered.
asserted
he → face → things
"I'll think how to improve the system, and give confidence to those who want to travel by train and feel calm and safe."
asserted
who → think → train
But Spaniards will take a lot of persuading.
asserted
Spaniards → take → persuading
"This is not only a very serious accident, but the second in a very short time," Paco Camas of the pollster Ipsos points out.
asserted
Camas → point → pollster
An investigation into January's crash in Adamuz, near Cordoba, is still open, with initial reports suggesting there was a crack in the rails - very different to the latest collision.
asserted
investigation → suggest → collision
"It destroys people's confidence not only in the railways but institutions in general," Camas warns.
asserted
Camas → destroy → railways
"And in Spain when such things happen, we know that people blame their government."
For Team Sánchez it is the latest in a spiral of crises.
Allegations of corruption against the prime minister's close relatives still persist, all denied.
Then there was a sudden influx of migrants from Morocco this summer to the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
asserted
all → happen → Ceuta
That got right-wing opponents shouting about incompetence and underfunding.
asserted
opponents → get → incompetence
Later, a video of a pensioner being forcibly evicted from her home went viral and sparked street protests.
asserted
video → evict → protests
That's when Sánchez called an early election.
asserted
Sánchez → call → election
His chances of winning the vote looked slim even before the train crash.
asserted
chances → win → crash
Now they have plummeted.
asserted
they → plummet → ?
Most recent polls showed the centre-right PP coming first and forming a coalition with the far-right Vox.
asserted
PP → show → Vox
"They have this majority in almost 95% of the simulations we have done," Prof Pablo Simon of Madrid's Carlos III University explains.
asserted
Simon → have → University
But Sánchez had been running a positive campaign, trying to lure apathetic voters to the polls to vote socialist.
asserted
Sánchez → run → polls
Suddenly, the tone has changed.
asserted
tone → change → ?
"They've totally lost control of the agenda and the emotion of this campaign," Simon says.
asserted
Simon → lose → campaign
"It's going to be extremely difficult now.
asserted
It → go → ?
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
